5355 River Rd N #16 · Keizer, OR 97303

$30,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 750 sqft · Manufactured public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2 bed, 1.5 bath home in McNary Oaks Villa 55+ community has been refreshed with LVP flooring, fresh interior and exterior paint, and a recently installed rubber roof. Kitchen appliances plus washer and dryer are all included, making this home ready for its new owner. Enjoy the convenience of a double carport, multiple storage sheds, and extra storage space under the covered patio. Large partially fenced yard provides room for gardening, pets, or outdoor enjoyment. All buyers must be park approved. McNary Oaks offers fantastic amenities including clubhouse, pool, event space, community kitchen, pool table, exercise equipment, sauna, and laundry facility. Space rent is $975/month and includes

Key facts

• Double carport
• Covered patio
• Rubber roof

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• RUBBER ROOF
• DOUBLE CARPORT
• MULTIPLE STORAGE SHEDS
• COVERED PATIO
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: All appliances included; furniture negotiable; No home warranty; No assessments/liens reported
• Financial info: Space rent reported as $975/month (includes water)
• HOA & community: Located in McNary Oaks Villa 55+ community; Park rent includes swimming pool; Community amenities: clubhouse, pool, event space, community kitchen, pool table, exercise equipment, sauna, laundry facility; All buyers must be park approved

Exterior

• Parking: Double carport
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electric water heater
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; Adult park (55+ community); Grey exterior color; Front door entry
• Construction: Built in 1970; Aluminum siding; Metal or aluminum roof; Pier foundation; Manufactured home make: MODULINE, model: OLYMPIAN; Home size: 12 x 62.5; Serial number: 10864
• Exterior features: Partially fenced yard; Covered deck / covered patio; Landscaped; Multiple storage sheds; Extra storage under covered patio; Large yard suitable for gardening or pets

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric built-in range (range included)
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the main level; Second bedroom on the main level
• Flooring: LVP flooring (referenced as recently refreshed)
• Bathrooms: Two bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating
• Interior features: High-speed communication available; Living room on the main level; Dining area (combination) on the main level; Utility room on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Recommended offer: $29k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 47.0% vs local median 2.9% in Keizer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#56 in OR, #1,918 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime B+; Watch: commute D+.
• Salem-Keizer SD 24J (urban): math 34% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #103 of 183 in OR (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Keizer Elementary School (561 students, 70% FRL); Mcnary High School (2,081 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 53% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 173 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,591 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $900 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($29k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $3k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 46.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 145.32%
• DSCR: 7.47
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $18,750
• Comps found: 9

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5355 River Rd N #56	0.00mi	2/2.0	792 (+6%)	1mo	$20,000	$25	90
5355 River Rd N	0.11mi	2/2.0	792 (+6%)	1mo	$20,000	$25	84
5355 River Rd NE #84	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (-10%)	1mo	$17,000	$25	78
5355 River Rd N #85	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (-10%)	4mo	$25,000	$37	76
5355 River Rd N #13	0.00mi	2/1.0	732 (-2%)	22mo	$12,500	$17	74
5510 Windsor Island Rd N #19	0.56mi	2/1.0	744 (-1%)	7mo	$37,350	$50	63
5355 River Rd #39	0.00mi	2/1.0	672 (-10%)	23mo	$20,000	$30	60
1192 Chemawa Lp NE	0.69mi	2/1.0	800 (+7%)	8mo	$59,000	$74	46
1055 Lockhaven Dr N #36	0.55mi	2/2.0	840 (+12%)	19mo	$21,000	$25	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.74% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.27×
• Total profit: $61,069
• Equity at exit: $4,473

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.83×
• Total profit: $141,353
• Equity at exit: $2,594

Cash invested: $8,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97303

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 173
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,513 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$8 /mo · $101/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $1,017

Break-even live

Break-even rent $226

Max offer price $30,000

Occupancy floor 28%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,500
• Closing costs: $900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
295 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	23d	1	0.15mi
205 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	14d	1	0.21mi
208 Lakepoint Pl N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	936	$1,650	$1.76	2d	2	0.21mi
180 Sandy Dr N Unit 196 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	875	$1,300	$1.49	23d	1	0.29mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-614 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	14d	1	0.31mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-563 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	690	$1,099	$1.59	14d	1	0.31mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-664 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	14d	1	0.31mi
597 Rose Park Ln NE Unit 257-636 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	875	$1,300	$1.49	44d	1	0.31mi
790 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	1050	$2,024	$1.93	11d	11	0.37mi
600 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	834	$1,399	$1.68	44d	1	0.40mi
4995 Delight St N Unit 4995-204 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	870	$1,295	$1.49	44d	1	0.47mi
861 Chemawa Rd N Unit 881 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	800	$1,495	$1.87	21d	1	0.54mi
898 Lockhaven Dr NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	903	$1,550	$1.72	14d	3	0.54mi
5799 Trail Ave NE Unit 5819-304 Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	952	$1,695	$1.78	23d	1	0.58mi
1063 Koala St N Keizer, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$1,299	$1.22	4d	3	0.59mi
5955 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	23d	1	0.59mi
5965 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	0.61mi
1102 Orchard Ct N Keizer, OR	2.0–3.0	1.0	955	$1,375	$1.44	44d	1	0.62mi
5945 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	0.62mi
5975 Trail Ave NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,500	$1.63	21d	1	0.63mi
5925 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	918	$1,550	$1.69	8d	1	0.66mi
5905 Trail Ave NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	1005	$1,500	$1.49	44d	1	0.68mi
892 Foothill Ct NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	946	$1,575	$1.66	2d	10	0.89mi
235 Cummings Ln N Unit 263 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	675	$1,095	$1.62	14d	1	0.90mi
4525 Rivercrest Dr N Unit 4525 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	44d	1	0.91mi
589 Greenwood Dr NE Unit Greenwood Dr NE unit 37 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	850	$1,250	$1.47	44d	1	1.01mi
6700 Hidden Creek Loop NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0–2.0	805	$1,612	$2.00	2d	12	1.03mi
4853 Verda Ln NE Keizer, OR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	968	$1,914	$1.98	14d	10	1.04mi
6701 Hidden Creek Loop NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	860	$1,600	$1.86	2d	4	1.04mi
6800 Wheatland Rd N Keizer, OR	2.0	1.5	986	$1,525	$1.55	16d	1	1.09mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	14d	1	1.09mi
737 Manbrin Dr NE Unit 124-765201 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	760	$1,199	$1.58	23d	1	1.09mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5095-202 Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	848	$1,400	$1.65	23d	1	1.12mi
1813 Drexler Ln NE Unit 5076-101 Keizer, OR	1.0	1.0	725	$1,200	$1.66	44d	1	1.12mi
1220 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	935	$1,399	$1.50	44d	1	1.13mi
1236 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	2.0	935	$1,399	$1.50	44d	1	1.18mi
1144 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	901	$1,400	$1.55	21d	1	1.21mi
1204 McGee Ct NE Salem, OR	2.0	2.0	1015	$1,450	$1.43	44d	1	1.21mi
1154 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	901	$1,350	$1.50	23d	1	1.21mi
1154 Mcgee Ct NE Keizer, OR	2.0	1.0	901	$1,400	$1.55	14d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $30,000 Active 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $30,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $30,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $30,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $30,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $33,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $33,000 Active 23 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $33,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $33,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $33,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $33,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $33,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $33,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $33,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-17
    listed $33,000 Active
16. 2010-03-13
    historical
17. 2009-12-08
    listed $6,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $101 · $8/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $291 · $24/mo
• Expected delta: +$190/yr (+$16/mo · 187.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,160
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,680
• − Property taxes: −$101
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,453
• − Management: −$1,453
• − Depreciation: −$873
• Taxable income: $12,450
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,988
• After-tax cash flow: $9,219/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salem-Keizer SD 24J
• NCES district ID: 4110820
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,632
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #9017
• State rank: #103 of 183 in OR

Livability — Keizer

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #1918

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living C+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keizer, OR
• County: Marion County · 258,219 people
• City population: 40,659
• Metro: Salem, OR
• Population (ZIP): 40,659
• Household income: $84,871
• Rent vs Own: 37.0% rent · 63.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 360,940 people
• By 2030: 375,178 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 400,914 · +11.1%
• By 2050: 422,187 · +17.0%
• By 2075: 460,305 · +27.5%
• By 2100: 464,025 · +28.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Portuguese 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.5% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: 2.2pp · 2024: -2.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.0 2020: D+1.1 2016: R+5.0 2012: R+3.5 2008: D+2.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -428.84%
• Current HPI: 292.0057
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.74%
• Metro: Salem, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+450.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-17 Listed $33,000 WVMLS
• 2010-03-13 Listing Removed — WVMLS
• 2009-12-08 Listed $6,000 WVMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2017): $101 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.