23273 Conifer Dr · Walker, LA 70726

$220,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,450 sqft · SingleFamily · 15 Days on market

Built 2012 7,405 sqft lot Est $218k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one just feels like home. From the moment you walk in, you'll notice the high ceilings and natural flow of the split floor plan. The kitchen opens effortlessly into the living room, making it easy to host gatherings. A fireplace adds the perfect touch of comfort, while the oversized primary suite creates a private escape with a spacious bathroom and walk in closet. Out back, you'll find a large fenced in yard ready for everything from quiet mornings to weekend get togethers. No flood insurance required and the roof was replaced in 2021!

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Large fenced in yard
• Fireplace

Tags

• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN
• KITCHEN OPENS INTO LIVING ROOM
• FIREPLACE
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE FENCED IN YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-32 ($-380/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $214k (2.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $176k (20.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (20.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.8% in Walker — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#19 in LA, #3,999 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities D-, commute F.
• Livingston Parish (suburban): math 40% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 98 in LA (top 13%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.8%/yr); 985 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 794 units permitted in Livingston Parish in 2024 (99 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Livingston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $167k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,730 (20.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.62%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23273 Conifer Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,450 (0%)	1mo	$220,000	$152	99
23324 Conifer Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,517 (+5%)	2mo	$215,000	$142	86
23288 Conifer Dr	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,557 (+7%)	1mo	$220,000	$141	86
23204 Mango Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,545 (+7%)	3mo	$225,000	$146	80
23101 Arcwood Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+2%)	2mo	$203,500	$138	79
23261 Conifer Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,652 (+14%)	1mo	$239,000	$145	70
23516 Ryder Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,424 (-2%)	1mo	$223,279	$157	66
14200 Stones Throw Ct	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,463 (+1%)	2mo	$220,000	$150	63
23419 Ruger Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,551 (+7%)	2mo	$234,900	$151	57
13505 Raghorn Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,394 (-4%)	4mo	$225,000	$161	56
23498 Ryder Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,532 (+6%)	1mo	$233,560	$152	54
23436 Encore Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+14%)	4mo	$245,000	$149	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.83% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-36,223
• Equity at exit: $32,803

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-28,109
• Equity at exit: $19,022

Cash invested: $61,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70726

• Rents YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 985
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,154
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,095/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$369
• Net cashflow: $-32

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,797

Max offer price $214,402

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $93	-5% $31	+0% $-32	+5% $-94	+10% $-156
Rent	-10% $-171	-5% $-101	+0% $-32	+5% $38	+10% $107
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $24	base $-32	+0.5pp $-89	+1.0pp $-147

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,000
• Closing costs: $6,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13783 Fig Dr Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1613	$1,900	$1.18	25d	1	0.32mi
23744 Walker South Rd Denham Springs, LA	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,300	$1.18	16d	1	0.46mi
22862 Monterey Ave Dennis Mills, LA	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,875	$1.16	45d	1	0.50mi
22871 Balsam Dr Denham Springs, LA	4.0	2.0	1814	$1,975	$1.09	25d	1	0.60mi
23340 Ruger Dr Denham Springs, LA	4.0	2.0	1826	$1,800	$0.99	25d	1	0.70mi
13419 Hammack Rd Unit A Denham Springs, LA	2.0	2.0	1375	$1,350	$0.98	25d	1	1.10mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-15
   status Pending 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This one just feels like home. From the moment you walk in, you'll notice the high ceilings and natural flow of the split floor plan. The kitchen opens effortlessly into the living room, making it easy to host gatherings. A fireplace adds the perfect touch of comfort, while the oversized primary suite creates a private escape with a spacious bathroom and walk in closet. Out back, you'll find a large fenced in yard ready for everything from quiet mornings to weekend get togethers. No flood insurance required and the roof was replaced in 2021!

2. 2026-04-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This one just feels like home. From the moment you walk in, you'll notice the high ceilings and natural flow of the split floor plan. The kitchen opens effortlessly into the living room, making it easy to host gatherings. A fireplace adds the perfect touch of comfort, while the oversized primary suite creates a private escape with a spacious bathroom and walk in closet. Out back, you'll find a large fenced in yard ready for everything from quiet mornings to weekend get togethers. No flood insurance required and the roof was replaced in 2021!

3. 2026-03-31
   listed $220,000 Active 547-char remark

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This one just feels like home. From the moment you walk in, you'll notice the high ceilings and natural flow of the split floor plan. The kitchen opens effortlessly into the living room, making it easy to host gatherings. A fireplace adds the perfect touch of comfort, while the oversized primary suite creates a private escape with a spacious bathroom and walk in closet. Out back, you'll find a large fenced in yard ready for everything from quiet mornings to weekend get togethers. No flood insurance required and the roof was replaced in 2021!

4. 2026-03-31
   listed $220,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (547 chars)

   This one just feels like home. From the moment you walk in, you'll notice the high ceilings and natural flow of the split floor plan. The kitchen opens effortlessly into the living room, making it easy to host gatherings. A fireplace adds the perfect touch of comfort, while the oversized primary suite creates a private escape with a spacious bathroom and walk in closet. Out back, you'll find a large fenced in yard ready for everything from quiet mornings to weekend get togethers. No flood insurance required and the roof was replaced in 2021!

5. 2016-12-02
   soldstatus $167,000
6. 2016-11-29
   soldstatus Sold 120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (120 chars)

   Home did not flood!! Precious home in Arbor Walk is priced to sell and is move in ready. Call today for an appointment.

7. 2016-10-01
   status Pending 120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (120 chars)

   Home did not flood!! Precious home in Arbor Walk is priced to sell and is move in ready. Call today for an appointment.

8. 2016-09-26
   price $167,500 120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (120 chars)

   Home did not flood!! Precious home in Arbor Walk is priced to sell and is move in ready. Call today for an appointment.

9. 2016-09-09
   price $169,900 120-char remark

   Show marketing remark (120 chars)

   Home did not flood!! Precious home in Arbor Walk is priced to sell and is move in ready. Call today for an appointment.

10. 2016-09-02
    listed $174,900 Active 120-char remark

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Home did not flood!! Precious home in Arbor Walk is priced to sell and is move in ready. Call today for an appointment.

11. 2016-09-02
    listed $167,500

    Show marketing remark (120 chars)

    Home did not flood!! Precious home in Arbor Walk is priced to sell and is move in ready. Call today for an appointment.

12. 2012-06-20
    listed $151,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,095 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,095 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,088
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,323
• − Property taxes: −$2,095
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,687
• − Management: −$1,687
• − Depreciation: −$6,400
• Taxable loss: −$4,205
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,009
• After-tax cash flow: $629/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201020
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -32.00%
• Median HH income: $56,755
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3811
• State rank: #13 of 98 in LA

Livability — Walker

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #3999

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Livingston Parish · 87,496 people
• City population: 23,921
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• Population (ZIP): 63,575
• Household income: $78,621
• Rent vs Own: 27.0% rent · 73.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1211.0

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 158,511 people
• By 2030: 168,241 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 186,252 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 201,516 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 231,217 · +45.9%
• By 2100: 241,697 · +52.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.5) · D 15.1% · R 83.6% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.4pp toward D · 2008: -71.9pp · 2024: -68.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.5 2020: R+70.0 2016: R+72.5 2012: R+70.4 2008: R+71.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.37%
• Current HPI: 170.2207
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.83%
• Metro: Baton Rouge, LA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

+44.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Pending — AcadianaMLS
• 2026-04-15 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $220,000 GBRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $220,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2016-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $167,000 Public Records
• 2016-11-29 Sold (MLS) — GBRMLS
• 2016-10-01 Pending — GBRMLS
• 2016-09-26 Price Changed $167,500 GBRMLS
• 2016-09-09 Price Changed $169,900 GBRMLS
• 2016-09-02 Listed $174,900 GBRMLS
• 2016-09-02 Listed $167,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2012-06-20 Listed $151,900 AcadianaMLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,095 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.