163-165 Wheeler Rd · Altmar, NY 13302

$68,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Other · 26 Days on market

Built 2007 4.68 ac lot ↓ 51% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

HUD HOME! New to the market. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Open concept. Eat-in kitchen with newer appliances and cabinets. Nice country home on a little over 2 acres. A little work to be done to make great again. Seller doesn't not pay for title/survey updates, Property Sold As-Is.

Key facts

• 2.13 acres
• Open concept layout
• 4.68 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• 2.13 ACRES
• CLOSE TO SALMON RIVER
• NEARBY SNOWMOBILE TRAILS
• NEARBY 4-WHEELER TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $606 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.9% vs local median 3.2% in Altmar — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#1,077 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District (rural): math 31% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #573 of 590 in NY (top 97%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 172 units permitted in Oswego County in 2024 (27 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($474 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oswego County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $48k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $67,472 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.90%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.96×
• Total profit: $75,915
• Equity at exit: $61,710

10-year hold

• IRR: 47.1%
• Equity multiple: 11.08×
• Total profit: $193,257
• Equity at exit: $133,080

Cash invested: $19,180 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13302

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,369 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$359
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,052/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $606

Break-even live

Break-even rent $602

Max offer price $68,500

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,125
• Closing costs: $2,055
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-11-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-10-14
   listed $68,500 Active
3. 2022-07-29
   soldstatus $47,550 Closed Sale or Rented 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   HUD HOME! New to the market. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Open concept. Eat-in kitchen with newer appliances and cabinets. Nice country home on a little over 2 acres. A little work to be done to make great again. Seller doesn't not pay for title/survey updates, Property Sold As-Is.

4. 2022-06-09
   status Pending Sale 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   HUD HOME! New to the market. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Open concept. Eat-in kitchen with newer appliances and cabinets. Nice country home on a little over 2 acres. A little work to be done to make great again. Seller doesn't not pay for title/survey updates, Property Sold As-Is.

5. 2022-05-11
   price $72,000 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   HUD HOME! New to the market. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Open concept. Eat-in kitchen with newer appliances and cabinets. Nice country home on a little over 2 acres. A little work to be done to make great again. Seller doesn't not pay for title/survey updates, Property Sold As-Is.

6. 2022-04-14
   price $99,900 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   HUD HOME! New to the market. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Open concept. Eat-in kitchen with newer appliances and cabinets. Nice country home on a little over 2 acres. A little work to be done to make great again. Seller doesn't not pay for title/survey updates, Property Sold As-Is.

7. 2022-03-22
   price $110,000 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   HUD HOME! New to the market. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Open concept. Eat-in kitchen with newer appliances and cabinets. Nice country home on a little over 2 acres. A little work to be done to make great again. Seller doesn't not pay for title/survey updates, Property Sold As-Is.

8. 2022-02-17
   listed $140,000 Active 294-char remark

   Show marketing remark (294 chars)

   HUD HOME! New to the market. This home offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Open concept. Eat-in kitchen with newer appliances and cabinets. Nice country home on a little over 2 acres. A little work to be done to make great again. Seller doesn't not pay for title/survey updates, Property Sold As-Is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,052 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,105 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$53/yr (+$4/mo · 5.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,425
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,052
• − Insurance: −$342
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,314
• − Management: −$1,314
• − Depreciation: −$1,993
• Taxable income: $6,572
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,577
• After-tax cash flow: $5,693/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Altmar-Parish-Williamstown Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3602820
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $49,728
• Composite: 27.01/100
• National rank: #7063
• State rank: #573 of 590 in NY

Livability — Altmar

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #1077
• US rank: #21658

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,403

Population outlook (Oswego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 114,465 people
• By 2030: 109,968 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 99,205 · -13.3%
• By 2050: 87,979 · -23.1%
• By 2075: 65,100 · -43.1%
• By 2100: 47,117 · -58.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% Italian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · German/W. Germanic 8% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oswego

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.2) · D 37.9% · R 62.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -24.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.2 2020: R+20.2 2016: R+23.2 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.01%
• Current HPI: 423.7974
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-51.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-10-14 Listed $68,500 CNYIS
• 2022-07-29 Sold (MLS) $47,550 CNYIS
• 2022-06-09 Pending — CNYIS
• 2022-05-11 Price Changed $72,000 CNYIS
• 2022-04-14 Price Changed $99,900 CNYIS
• 2022-03-22 Price Changed $110,000 CNYIS
• 2022-02-17 Listed $140,000 CNYIS

Property tax history

+11.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,052 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.