1426 Tenbury Dr · Lynchburg, VA 24501

$134,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 864 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1983 1,363 sqft lot $156/sqft · at area comps Est $131k · at est. $185/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +6.2/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful remodeled 2-bedroom 1 bath townhome in Tenbury Square. New floors, New carpet being installed 8/26. New stove, refrigerator (installed 1-week), new vent hood, new kitchen faucet, new water heater, updated decorative fireplace, new lighting, new fan in living and all bedrooms, new bathroom vanity, vented exhaust fan, new toilet, new interior doors, entire home painted repose grey & all ceilings have been painted. Master bedroom window will be replaced as soon as possible. This is practically a brand-new home with all these incredible updates. Come see this beauty before it is gone!

Key facts

• $185 HOA
• Built 1983
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with $185 monthly fee

Exterior

• Parking: Paved parking
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential townhouse; 2 stories
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot roughly 0.0313 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating)
• Interior features: Skylights; Fireplace (1)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry closet with washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath townhouse listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-268/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $131k (2.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $128k (4.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $128k (4.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.0% in Lynchburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in VA, #58 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, employment D+.
• Lynchburg City Public School District (urban): math 36% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #104 of 131 in VA (top 79%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Linkhorne Elementary (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #966 of 1,108 statewide, top 89%, 409 students, 96% FRL); Linkhorne Middle (math 36% / reading 64%, grade C, #231 of 342 statewide, top 69%, 586 students, 95% FRL); E.C. Glass High (math 42% / reading 84%, grade B-, #223 of 319 statewide, top 70%, 1,325 students, 92% FRL) — zoned schools average 95% FRL vs 61% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 216 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 472 units permitted in Lynchburg city in 2024 (240 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($42k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lynchburg County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $128,357 (4.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.09%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.71%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $131,013
• List price: $134,900
• Delta: 2.97%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1426 Tenbury Dr	0.00mi	2/1.0	864 (0%)	0mo	$135,000	$156	100
1412 Tenbury Dr	0.02mi	2/1.0	864 (0%)	11mo	$135,000	$156	90
1452 Tenbury Dr	0.05mi	2/1.0	864 (0%)	15mo	$145,000	$168	86
1478 Tenbury Dr	0.02mi	2/1.0	864 (0%)	23mo	$140,000	$162	80

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.15% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-25,544
• Equity at exit: $20,114

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.13×
• Total profit: $-33,012
• Equity at exit: $11,664

Cash invested: $37,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24501

• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,284 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$707
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,053/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$185
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$270
• Net cashflow: $-22

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,312

Max offer price $130,956

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $54	-5% $16	+0% $-22	+5% $-61	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-124	-5% $-73	+0% $-22	+5% $28	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $46	-0.5pp $12	base $-22	+0.5pp $-57	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,725
• Closing costs: $4,047
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1044 Ardmore Cir Lynchburg, VA	3.0	1.0	1052	$1,700	$1.62	21d	1	0.46mi
3101 Link Rd #96 Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1080	$1,200	$1.11	44d	1	0.95mi
127 Primrose Ln Unit B Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1040	$1,095	$1.05	21d	1	0.98mi
94 Countryplace Ln Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	864	$1,350	$1.56	14d	1	1.17mi
89 Countryplace Ln Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	864	$1,025	$1.19	14d	1	1.18mi
42 Countryplace Ln Lynchburg, VA	2.0	1.5	882	$995	$1.13	14d	1	1.22mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $185 · $2,220/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 971-char remark
2. 2026-05-06
   listed $134,900 Active 971-char remark
3. 2022-09-27
   soldstatus $115,000
4. 2022-09-25
   price $109,990 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Beautiful remodeled 2-bedroom 1 bath townhome in Tenbury Square. New floors, New carpet being installed 8/26. New stove, refrigerator (installed 1-week), new vent hood, new kitchen faucet, new water heater, updated decorative fireplace, new lighting, new fan in living and all bedrooms, new bathroom vanity, vented exhaust fan, new toilet, new interior doors, entire home painted repose grey & all ceilings have been painted. Master bedroom window will be replaced as soon as possible. This is practically a brand-new home with all these incredible updates. Come see this beauty before it is gone!

5. 2022-09-23
   soldstatus $115,000 Closed 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Beautiful remodeled 2-bedroom 1 bath townhome in Tenbury Square. New floors, New carpet being installed 8/26. New stove, refrigerator (installed 1-week), new vent hood, new kitchen faucet, new water heater, updated decorative fireplace, new lighting, new fan in living and all bedrooms, new bathroom vanity, vented exhaust fan, new toilet, new interior doors, entire home painted repose grey & all ceilings have been painted. Master bedroom window will be replaced as soon as possible. This is practically a brand-new home with all these incredible updates. Come see this beauty before it is gone!

6. 2022-08-22
   status Pending 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Beautiful remodeled 2-bedroom 1 bath townhome in Tenbury Square. New floors, New carpet being installed 8/26. New stove, refrigerator (installed 1-week), new vent hood, new kitchen faucet, new water heater, updated decorative fireplace, new lighting, new fan in living and all bedrooms, new bathroom vanity, vented exhaust fan, new toilet, new interior doors, entire home painted repose grey & all ceilings have been painted. Master bedroom window will be replaced as soon as possible. This is practically a brand-new home with all these incredible updates. Come see this beauty before it is gone!

7. 2022-08-21
   price $120,000 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Beautiful remodeled 2-bedroom 1 bath townhome in Tenbury Square. New floors, New carpet being installed 8/26. New stove, refrigerator (installed 1-week), new vent hood, new kitchen faucet, new water heater, updated decorative fireplace, new lighting, new fan in living and all bedrooms, new bathroom vanity, vented exhaust fan, new toilet, new interior doors, entire home painted repose grey & all ceilings have been painted. Master bedroom window will be replaced as soon as possible. This is practically a brand-new home with all these incredible updates. Come see this beauty before it is gone!

8. 2022-08-19
   status Active

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Beautiful remodeled 2-bedroom 1 bath townhome in Tenbury Square. New floors, New carpet being installed 8/26. New stove, refrigerator (installed 1-week), new vent hood, new kitchen faucet, new water heater, updated decorative fireplace, new lighting, new fan in living and all bedrooms, new bathroom vanity, vented exhaust fan, new toilet, new interior doors, entire home painted repose grey & all ceilings have been painted. Master bedroom window will be replaced as soon as possible. This is practically a brand-new home with all these incredible updates. Come see this beauty before it is gone!

9. 2022-08-19
   listed $110,000 Active 604-char remark

   Show marketing remark (604 chars)

   Beautiful remodeled 2-bedroom 1 bath townhome in Tenbury Square. New floors, New carpet being installed 8/26. New stove, refrigerator (installed 1-week), new vent hood, new kitchen faucet, new water heater, updated decorative fireplace, new lighting, new fan in living and all bedrooms, new bathroom vanity, vented exhaust fan, new toilet, new interior doors, entire home painted repose grey & all ceilings have been painted. Master bedroom window will be replaced as soon as possible. This is practically a brand-new home with all these incredible updates. Come see this beauty before it is gone!

10. 2022-08-19
    listed $103,990

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    Beautiful remodeled 2-bedroom 1 bath townhome in Tenbury Square. New floors, New carpet being installed 8/26. New stove, refrigerator (installed 1-week), new vent hood, new kitchen faucet, new water heater, updated decorative fireplace, new lighting, new fan in living and all bedrooms, new bathroom vanity, vented exhaust fan, new toilet, new interior doors, entire home painted repose grey & all ceilings have been painted. Master bedroom window will be replaced as soon as possible. This is practically a brand-new home with all these incredible updates. Come see this beauty before it is gone!

11. 2022-03-29
    listed $103,990
12. 2014-10-10
    soldstatus $61,000
13. 2014-10-10
    soldstatus $61,000
14. 2014-09-10
    listed $63,900
15. 1995-09-29
    soldstatus $40,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,053 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,106 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$54/yr (+$4/mo · 5.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,403
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,556
• − Property taxes: −$1,053
• − Insurance: −$674
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − HOA: −$2,220
• − Depreciation: −$3,924
• Taxable loss: −$2,489
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$597
• After-tax cash flow: $330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lynchburg City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102340
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $39,097
• Composite: 40.4/100
• National rank: #3730
• State rank: #104 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lynchburg

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #58

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lynchburg, VA
• County: Lynchburg City · 97,036 people
• City population: 97,036
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• Population (ZIP): 25,006
• Household income: $42,222
• Rent vs Own: 53.0% rent · 47.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1717.0

Population outlook (Lynchburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,977 people
• By 2030: 93,626 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 106,145 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 120,783 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 162,249 · +84.4%
• By 2100: 191,358 · +117.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Black 34% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynchburg

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.9) · D 45.4% · R 53.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -4.0pp · 2024: -7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.9 2020: D+2.6 2016: R+9.0 2012: R+10.6 2008: R+4.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -131.06%
• Current HPI: 223.6839
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.15%
• Metro: Lynchburg, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+233.3% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Sold (MLS) $135,000 LMLS
• 2026-05-08 Pending — LMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $134,900 LMLS
• 2022-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-25 Price Changed $109,990 LMLS
• 2022-09-23 Sold (MLS) $115,000 LMLS
• 2022-08-22 Pending — LMLS
• 2022-08-21 Price Changed $120,000 LMLS
• 2022-08-19 Relisted — LMLS
• 2022-08-19 Listed $103,990 LMLS
• 2022-08-19 Listed $110,000 LMLS
• 2022-03-29 Listed $103,990 LMLS
• 2014-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $61,000 Public Records
• 2014-10-10 Sold (MLS) $61,000 LMLS
• 2014-09-10 Listed $63,900 LMLS
• 1995-09-29 Sold (Public Records) $40,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,053 · +16.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.