11207 Nottingham Dr · Otsego Lake, MI 49733

$69,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · SingleFamily · 48 Days on market

Built 1977 0.46 ac lot $70/sqft · 56% below area $38/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well cared for single wide would make a great starter home or vacation getaway. Super retro with a split level floor plan and main floor laundry. Lots of recent upgrades , like a new furnace, a new well pump and a new hot water heater. This home has some pretty unique features like a block crawl space, a roof over with a pitched steel roof and has a real wood burning fireplace keeping it cozy. This home comes turnkey for the buyers convenience. The association has two private sandy beaches on all-sport Guthrie Lake & Section One Lake. Association amenities also include a clubhouse, newly remodeled outdoor pool & locker rooms, parks featuring charcoal & gas grills & fire rings, a volleyball area, various boats for member use, and two boat launches. Members enjoy two saunas game & televisi

Key facts

• 0.46 acre lot
• Built 1977
• Listed 48 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.46 acres (dimensions: 120 x 230 x 60 x 226); Paved road access; Vegetation in natural state; Directions: Head East on Marlette Rd, turn right onto Fascination Dr, turn right onto Nottingham Dr — property on right
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $455 (about $37.92/month); Subdivision: Enchanted Forest Sub

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Propane utilities
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: 980 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Deck

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Oven; Range
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom located downstairs
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Propane heating
• Interior features: Master suite on the main level; Blinds on windows; Fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $266 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($969 rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Gaylord Community Schools (rural): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #123 of 540 in MI (top 23%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Gaylord High Schoolvoc Bldg (math 47% / reading 67%, grade C, #99 of 713 statewide, top 14%, 961 students, 43% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Otsego County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($477 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Otsego County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $66,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.51%
• DSCR: 1.73
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,295
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -55.57%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11611 Sherwood Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0 (-1)	858 (-12%)	1mo	$110,000	$128	62
11838 Fascination Dr Lot : 410	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,040 (+6%)	9mo	$249,000	$239	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.82×
• Total profit: $54,540
• Equity at exit: $62,161

10-year hold

• IRR: 31.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.63×
• Total profit: $147,352
• Equity at exit: $134,052

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49733

• Home prices YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $969 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$71 /mo · $850/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$38
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $266

Break-even live

Break-even rent $632

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $305	-5% $285	+0% $266	+5% $246	+10% $227
Rent	-10% $189	-5% $228	+0% $266	+5% $304	+10% $342
Rate	-1.0pp $301	-0.5pp $283	base $266	+0.5pp $248	+1.0pp $230

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $38 · $456/yr
• Likely covers: watergaspool

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $69,000 Active 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $69,000 Active 47 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 43 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 40 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $79,000 Active 39 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 36 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    pricestatus $79,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,000 Active Under Contract 26 DOM
19. 2026-05-12
    price $89,000 421-char remark
20. 2026-05-04
    listed $99,000 Active 421-char remark
21. 2021-09-01
    soldstatus $50,000 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Well cared for single wide would make a great starter home or vacation getaway. Super retro with a split level floor plan and main floor laundry. Lots of recent upgrades , like a new furnace, a new well pump and a new hot water heater. This home has some pretty unique features like a block crawl space, a roof over with a pitched steel roof and has a real wood burning fireplace keeping it cozy. This home comes turnkey for the buyers convenience. The association has two private sandy beaches on all-sport Guthrie Lake & Section One Lake. Association amenities also include a clubhouse, newly remodeled outdoor pool & locker rooms, parks featuring charcoal & gas grills & fire rings, a volleyball area, various boats for member use, and two boat launches. Members enjoy two saunas game & televisi

22. 2021-08-04
    listed $54,000 828-char remark

    Show marketing remark (828 chars)

    Well cared for single wide would make a great starter home or vacation getaway. Super retro with a split level floor plan and main floor laundry. Lots of recent upgrades , like a new furnace, a new well pump and a new hot water heater. This home has some pretty unique features like a block crawl space, a roof over with a pitched steel roof and has a real wood burning fireplace keeping it cozy. This home comes turnkey for the buyers convenience. The association has two private sandy beaches on all-sport Guthrie Lake & Section One Lake. Association amenities also include a clubhouse, newly remodeled outdoor pool & locker rooms, parks featuring charcoal & gas grills & fire rings, a volleyball area, various boats for member use, and two boat launches. Members enjoy two saunas game & televisi

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $850 · $71/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $957 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$106/yr (+$9/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,625
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$850
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$930
• − Management: −$930
• − HOA: −$456
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $2,241
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$538
• After-tax cash flow: $2,652/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gaylord Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2615730
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $48,682
• Composite: 40.97/100
• National rank: #3597
• State rank: #123 of 540 in MI

Livability — Otsego Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,910

Population outlook (Otsego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,175 people
• By 2030: 23,836 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 22,718 · -6.0%
• By 2050: 21,411 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 18,864 · -22.0%
• By 2100: 15,011 · -37.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Otsego

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.3) · D 31.6% · R 67.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.5pp toward R · 2008: -8.9pp · 2024: -35.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.3 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+19.7 2008: R+8.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 10.47%
• Current HPI: 291.6348
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+46.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $79,000 WWMLS
• 2026-06-08 Relisted — WWMLS
• 2026-05-23 Contingent — WWMLS
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $89,000 WWMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $99,000 WWMLS
• 2021-09-01 Sold (MLS) $50,000 WWMLS
• 2021-08-04 Listed $54,000 WWMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $850 · +29.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.