1047 Phantom Hill Blvd · Niederwald, TX 78610

$279,990

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,641 sqft · SingleFamily · 20 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 5,227 sqft lot $171/sqft · 8% below area Est $331k · 15% under $80/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +9.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Check out 1047 Phantom Hill Blvd located in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,782 square feet of living space across 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and 2 stories. As you enter through the front door, you're greeted by one of the secondary bedrooms and full bath. Stepping further into the home you immediately notice the gourmet kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and quartz countertops. The kitchen flows into the living area with windows that let in natural light giving the home a bright and open feel. Making your way upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with an adjoined bathroom featuring a walk-in shower and large walk-in closet. The two additional bedrooms and full bath are also upstairs. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and a full irrigation system as well as our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Gourmet kitchen
• 5,227 sq ft lot

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• FULL IRRIGATION SYSTEM
• AMERICA'S SMART HOME PACKAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (PRAIRIE LAKES) with $80 monthly fee covering common area maintenance; Community amenities include common grounds, community mailbox, playground, pool, sport courts, and trails/paths

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces (total 2 parking)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Electricity available; Fiber optic available; Natural gas available; Water available (Municipal Utility District); Public sewer (Municipal Utility District); Sewer connected; Underground utilities
• Home design: New construction; 2-story home; Faces northeast; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built by DR HORTON; HardiPlank-type siding; Radiant barrier; Composition/shingle roof
• Exterior features: Private yard; Back yard; Fenced backyard with wood fence and gate; Covered front porch; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Vented exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Pantry; Quartz counters; Recessed lighting; Smart home features; Smart thermostat; Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Double pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $280k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-204 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (10.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $229k (18.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $229k (18.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,198 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Camino Real El (math 22% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,492 of 4,322 statewide, top 81%, 782 students, 76% FRL); R C Barton Middle (math 56% / reading 52%, grade B-, #270 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 816 students, 33% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1005 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $229,206 (18.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.42%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.13%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,942
• List price: $279,990
• Delta: -15.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
244 Gilmer Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,659 (+1%)	2mo	$318,990	$192	85
119 Juan Cordona Dr	0.25mi	4/2.0	1,680 (+2%)	4mo	$314,990	$187	77
236 Gilmer Ln	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,796 (+9%)	1mo	$332,640	$185	73
395 Mustang Lake Cir	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+8%)	3mo	$319,990	$180	72
280 Mustang Lake Cir	0.24mi	4/2.0	1,780 (+8%)	2mo	$326,990	$184	69
368 Mustang Lake Cir	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,778 (+8%)	4mo	$319,990	$180	69
192 Juan Cordona Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,489 (-9%)	3mo	$249,990	$168	65
110 Bull Lake Cir	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-10%)	2mo	$271,250	$185	60
196 Garcia St	0.23mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-13%)	1mo	$257,990	$180	58
181 Bull Lake Cir	0.32mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-10%)	4mo	$266,735	$181	57
134 Alkali Dr	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,470 (-10%)	4mo	$274,990	$187	56
149 Bull Lake Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,434 (-13%)	4mo	$253,990	$177	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-65,011
• Equity at exit: $41,747

10-year hold

• IRR: -34.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.26×
• Total profit: $-98,977
• Equity at exit: $24,208

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1005
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,292 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$80
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$481
• Net cashflow: $-204

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,551

Max offer price $250,439

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-11	-5% $-107	+0% $-204	+5% $-301	+10% $-398
Rent	-10% $-385	-5% $-295	+0% $-204	+5% $-114	+10% $-23
Rate	-1.0pp $-63	-0.5pp $-133	base $-204	+0.5pp $-277	+1.0pp $-351

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
148 Garcia St Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1470	$1,900	$1.29	25d	1	0.24mi
143 Santa Teresa Rd Kyle, TX	4.0	2.5	2042	$2,500	$1.22	45d	1	0.38mi
164 Peck St Kyle, TX	3.0	2.0	2159	$2,500	$1.16	45d	1	1.17mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $80 · $960/yr

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,990 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,990 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,990 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,990 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,990 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,990 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,990 Active 8 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,990 Active 7 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $279,990 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $279,990 Active 3 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,990 Active 2 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on marketlisting id $279,990 Active 1 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,990 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,990 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-16
    listed $280,840 Active 1112-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1112 chars)

    Check out 1047 Phantom Hill Blvd located in our Prairie Lakes community in Buda, TX. This home offers 1,782 square feet of living space across 4 bedrooms, 3 bathrooms and 2 stories. As you enter through the front door, you're greeted by one of the secondary bedrooms and full bath. Stepping further into the home you immediately notice the gourmet kitchen with plenty of counter and cabinet space. The kitchen features stainless steel appliances, white cabinets, and quartz countertops. The kitchen flows into the living area with windows that let in natural light giving the home a bright and open feel. Making your way upstairs, you'll find the primary bedroom with an adjoined bathroom featuring a walk-in shower and large walk-in closet. The two additional bedrooms and full bath are also upstairs. This home comes included with a professionally designed landscape package and a full irrigation system as well as our America's Smart Home® package that offers devices such as the Qolsys IQ Panel, Video Doorbell, Alarm.com app, Honeywell Thermostat, Deako Smart Light Switch, Kwikset Smart lock, and more.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,505
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,200
• − Management: −$2,200
• − HOA: −$960
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$7,285
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,748
• After-tax cash flow: $-702/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 30 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a great value for both resale and rental markets.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both Painting exterior trim — Freshens up the home's appearance
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both Painting exterior trim — Freshens up the home's appearance ↑
• Both Add a smart home system — Improves energy efficiency and adds modern amenities ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Niederwald

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1198
• US rank: #20995

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $279,990 Unlock MLS
• 2026-05-22 Price Changed $279,990 Zillow
• 2026-05-16 Listed $280,840 Zillow