4526 Merlot (Lot 115) St · Birch Bay, WA 98230

$569,950

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,319 sqft · Other · 118 Days on market

Built 2026 3,735 sqft lot $246/sqft · at area comps Est $584k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Cash flow +4.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MTT's highly anticipated Grand Opening of Whisper Lake Division II in Birch Bay/Blaine. Great Opportunity for Affordable New Construction home featuring 2319 sq ft plan has 5 Bedrooms, 3 baths plus Bonus Room. Great room concept with Island kitchen, stainless appliances, quartz counters with full tile backsplash, walk-in pantry. One bedroom on main with 3/4 bath on main. Large primary bedroom with large bath (optional upgrade) large shower and walk-in closet. Full forced air heat and A/C. Buyer to choose finishes at Design Center. Covered back patio Great area walking distance to Birch Bay with restaurants and shopping. Great recreation areas are close, marinas, world class crabbing, fishin

Key facts

• Quartz counters
• Full tile backsplash
• Island kitchen

Tags

• ISLAND KITCHEN
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• FULL TILE BACKSPLASH
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• COVERED BACK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $570k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-18k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $349k (38.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $311k (45.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $311k (45.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#406 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, health & safety D, schools F.
• Blaine School District (town): math 49% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #120 of 291 in WA (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 454 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,190 units permitted in Whatcom County in 2024 (327 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($87k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $61k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $57k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Whatcom County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$98k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($519k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $311,330 (45.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.50%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $584,048
• List price: $569,950
• Delta: -2.41%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $213,400
• Equity at exit: $513,456

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.42×
• Total profit: $705,817
• Equity at exit: $1,107,287

Cash invested: $159,586 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98230

• Home prices YoY: 14.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 454
• Price-to-rent: 15.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,113 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,989
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$712 /mo · $8,549/yr
• Insurance: −$237
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
• Net cashflow: $-1,529

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,049

Max offer price $348,659

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $142,488
• Closing costs: $17,098
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-13
   status $569,950 Pending 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $569,950 Active 118 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $569,950 Active 117 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $569,950 Active 116 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $569,950 Active 115 DOM
6. 2026-06-05
   days on market $569,950 Active 112 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $569,950 Active 110 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $569,950 Active 109 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $569,950 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-05-30
    days on market $569,950 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-04-10
    price $572,950
12. 2026-03-19
    price $569,950
13. 2026-02-12
    listed $567,950 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,360
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,926
• − Property taxes: −$8,549
• − Insurance: −$2,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,989
• − Management: −$2,989
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$16,580
• Taxable loss: −$29,123
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,990
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Blaine School District
• NCES district ID: 5300570
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,085
• Composite: 47.05/100
• National rank: #5128
• State rank: #120 of 291 in WA

Livability — Birch Bay

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #406
• US rank: #16180

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birch Bay, WA
• County: Whatcom County · 209,776 people
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• Population (ZIP): 18,744
• Household income: $86,623
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 454.0

Population outlook (Whatcom County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 240,408 people
• By 2030: 254,667 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 281,365 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 307,592 · +27.9%
• By 2075: 375,576 · +56.2%
• By 2100: 421,637 · +75.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 6% Iranian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whatcom

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+24.9) · D 60.8% · R 35.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 24.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+24.9 2020: D+23.9 2016: D+17.7 2012: D+12.1 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 106.58%
• Current HPI: 868.68
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.10%
• Metro: Bellingham, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+0.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $572,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $569,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Listed $567,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid