9211 Hidden Lk E · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$254,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,585 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2006 5,998 sqft lot $161/sqft · 8% below area Est $277k · 8% under $41/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

You'll love this cute 3 year old ranch style home. The spacious living room features a fireplace. There are lots of cabinets, a pantry and eating area in the kitchen plus formal dining. Entertain you guest on this patio surrounded with a privacy fence and backs to a greenbelt. Just 5 minutes to The Woodlands Walmart and about 8 minutes to the Target supercenter. Seller is furnishing standard 13 month Home Warranty.

Key facts

• Great location
• Separate shower
• Open kitchen

Tags

• FIREPLACE
• OPEN KITCHEN
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• GARDEN TUB
• GREAT LOCATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Municipal Utility District and seller disclosures available
• Financial info: Lease considered
• HOA & community: Member of Hidden Lake Estates / Inframark; Annual association fee of $490

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story (first floor living)
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built in 2006
• Exterior features: Fenced backyard; Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Disposal; Breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (First floor) — 15 x 13; Bedroom (First floor) — 13 x 10; Bedroom (First floor) — 12 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Primary bathroom (First floor) — 13 x 8
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Gas log fireplace; Breakfast bar; Ceiling fans throughout
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Owned water softener

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $255k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-167 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $206k (19.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $206k (19.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Cedric C Smith (math 48% / reading 42%, grade D-, #1,133 of 4,322 statewide, top 27%, 724 students, 55% FRL); Bear Branch J H (math 44% / reading 46%, grade D, #479 of 1,662 statewide, top 29%, 1,076 students, 37% FRL); Magnolia H S (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #379 of 1,632 statewide, top 26%, 2,248 students, 31% FRL) — zoned schools at 41% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $27k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($247k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $205,867 (19.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.80%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $277,444
• List price: $254,900
• Delta: -8.13%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9218 E Lakeside Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,563 (-1%)	2mo	$259,500	$166	87
9206 Hidden Lk E	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,814 (+14%)	3mo	$275,000	$152	72
9115 E Lakeside Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,694 (+7%)	11mo	$305,000	$180	72
28831 Hidden Cove Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,705 (+8%)	2mo	$280,000	$164	70
9214 Hidden Ct	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,687 (+6%)	11mo	$265,000	$157	67
28906 Champion Oaks Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,483 (-6%)	10mo	$215,000	$145	62
28730 Hidden Cove Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,783 (+12%)	21mo	$305,000	$171	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.72×
• Total profit: $122,846
• Equity at exit: $229,634

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.05×
• Total profit: $360,402
• Equity at exit: $495,215

Cash invested: $71,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,059 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,337
• Tax from tax record: −$309 /mo · $3,711/yr
• Insurance: −$106
• HOA: −$41
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $-167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,270

Max offer price $225,435

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-23	-5% $-95	+0% $-167	+5% $-239	+10% $-311
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-248	+0% $-167	+5% $-85	+10% $-4
Rate	-1.0pp $-38	-0.5pp $-102	base $-167	+0.5pp $-233	+1.0pp $-300

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $63,725
• Closing costs: $7,647
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2228 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,875	$1.59	3d	1	1.02mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2162 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,883	$1.60	5d	1	1.02mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,328	$1.48	3d	1	1.02mi
30006 Farm to Market Road 2978 Magnolia, TX	2.0	1.0	1088	$1,766	$1.62	44d	1	1.13mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 2047 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,918	$1.63	11d	1	1.16mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,371	$1.50	11d	1	1.16mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30013 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,360	$1.50	11d	1	1.18mi
29980 Farm to Market Road 2978 Unit 30017 Magnolia, TX	2.0	2.0	1177	$1,907	$1.62	11d	1	1.18mi
30000 FM 2978 Rd Magnolia, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	1175	$1,767	$1.50	3d	49	1.20mi
9829 Glen Brook Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.0	1637	$1,999	$1.22	3d	1	1.31mi
9733 Grosbeak Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1302	$1,798	$1.38	44d	1	1.36mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$1,975	$1.40	25d	1	1.39mi
260 Gallant Front Ln Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1410	$2,000	$1.42	44d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $41 · $492/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $254,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $254,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $254,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $254,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $254,900 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $254,900 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $254,900 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $254,900 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $254,900 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $254,900 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $254,900 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $254,900 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $254,900 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-09
    listed $257,900 Active 207-char remark
15. 2026-03-17
    listed $1,800
16. 2026-03-16
    historical $1,800
17. 2026-02-03
    price $1,800
18. 2025-09-15
    listed $2,000
19. 2023-08-23
    historical
20. 2009-11-03
    soldstatus
21. 2009-10-31
    soldstatus 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    You'll love this cute 3 year old ranch style home. The spacious living room features a fireplace. There are lots of cabinets, a pantry and eating area in the kitchen plus formal dining. Entertain you guest on this patio surrounded with a privacy fence and backs to a greenbelt. Just 5 minutes to The Woodlands Walmart and about 8 minutes to the Target supercenter. Seller is furnishing standard 13 month Home Warranty.

22. 2009-09-14
    historical 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    You'll love this cute 3 year old ranch style home. The spacious living room features a fireplace. There are lots of cabinets, a pantry and eating area in the kitchen plus formal dining. Entertain you guest on this patio surrounded with a privacy fence and backs to a greenbelt. Just 5 minutes to The Woodlands Walmart and about 8 minutes to the Target supercenter. Seller is furnishing standard 13 month Home Warranty.

23. 2009-08-25
    listed $110,000 423-char remark

    Show marketing remark (423 chars)

    You'll love this cute 3 year old ranch style home. The spacious living room features a fireplace. There are lots of cabinets, a pantry and eating area in the kitchen plus formal dining. Entertain you guest on this patio surrounded with a privacy fence and backs to a greenbelt. Just 5 minutes to The Woodlands Walmart and about 8 minutes to the Target supercenter. Seller is furnishing standard 13 month Home Warranty.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,711 · $309/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,665 · $389/mo
• Expected delta: +$954/yr (+$80/mo · 25.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,704
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,278
• − Property taxes: −$3,711
• − Insurance: −$1,274
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,976
• − Management: −$1,976
• − HOA: −$492
• − Depreciation: −$7,415
• Taxable loss: −$6,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,541
• After-tax cash flow: $-461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+131.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Price Changed $254,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $257,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listed for Rent $1,800 REALLYO
• 2026-03-16 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed for Rent $2,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-23 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-11-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2009-10-31 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-09-14 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-08-25 Listed $110,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,711 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.