1120 W Goforth Rd · Buda, TX 78610

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,250 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 99 Days on market

Built 1979 0.66 ac lot $122/sqft · 31% below area Est $399k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This unique . 66-acre property on the growing W. Goforth corridor offers exceptional potential for investors, builders, or business owners. The area has been gradually transitioning from residential to commercial and mixed-use development, making this an ideal opportunity for redevelopment or a contractor’s headquarters with room to park multiple trucks and equipment. Located B2 Arterial Business District. Buyer to verify all information. The property currently features a residential structure that is best suited for a flip, major renovation, or redevelopment project. Evidence of foundation issues is present. Being offered as an Estate Sale and sold AS-IS, with no Seller’s Disclosure Notice or survey available. Nearby zoning districts commonly allow uses such as office space, medical or dental offices, daycare, and other commercial or mixed-use applications (buyers to verify with the city). Conveniently located just minutes from * * Buda’s vibrant Downtown Buda / Main Street district, with popular restaurants, coffee shops, and local businesses. Whether you're looking for a redevelopment opportunity, a commercial conversion, or a residential project, this property offers significant potential in a rapidly evolving area.

Key facts

• Major renovation
• Residential project
• 66 acre property

Tags

• 66 ACRE PROPERTY
• B2 ARTERIAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
• MAJOR RENOVATION
• COMMERCIAL CONVERSION
• RESIDENTIAL PROJECT
• RAPIDLY EVOLVING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-154 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $248k (9.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 2.6% in Buda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#339 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Hays CISD (rural): math 35% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #390 of 826 in TX (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Buda El (math 40% / reading 52%, grade D-, #1,097 of 4,322 statewide, top 26%, 604 students, 40% FRL); Eric Dahlstrom Middle (math 56% / reading 53%, grade B-, #256 of 1,662 statewide, top 16%, 902 students, 15% FRL); Jack C Hays H S (math 41% / reading 47%, grade F, #697 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,062 students, 36% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.8%/yr); 1005 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 5,270 units permitted in Hays County in 2024 (1,464 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hays County population projected at +93% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($250k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $226,682 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.62%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.40%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $398,682
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -31.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
113 Crescent Dr	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,214 (-2%)	10mo	$339,000	$153	61
549 Tobin Dr	0.36mi	4/2.5	2,113 (-6%)	12mo	$388,000	$184	61
201 Tobin Dr	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,310 (+3%)	1mo	$420,000	$182	56
400 Tobin Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5	2,566 (+14%)	4mo	$399,000	$155	48
236 Bradfield Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0	1,967 (-13%)	2mo	$420,000	$214	47
337 Tobin Dr	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,951 (-13%)	7mo	$379,999	$195	47
369 Bradfield Dr	0.53mi	4/2.5	2,522 (+12%)	12mo	$420,000	$167	43
401 Arikara St	0.70mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,017 (-10%)	1mo	$595,000	$295	40
2180 Intrepid Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,025 (-10%)	13mo	$315,000	$156	40
282 Bridgestone Way	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,957 (-13%)	13mo	$349,900	$179	32
1500 Stone Rim Loop	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,921 (-15%)	15mo	$344,900	$180	27
230 Shale Cir	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,569 (+14%)	13mo	$365,000	$142	22

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-60,945
• Equity at exit: $41,003

10-year hold

• IRR: -30.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.18×
• Total profit: $-91,114
• Equity at exit: $23,777

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78610

• Rents YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 1005
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,267 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$388 /mo · $4,656/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$476
• Net cashflow: $-154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,462

Max offer price $247,815

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $2	-5% $-76	+0% $-154	+5% $-232	+10% $-310
Rent	-10% $-333	-5% $-243	+0% $-154	+5% $-64	+10% $25
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-84	base $-154	+0.5pp $-225	+1.0pp $-298

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
260 Tobin Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,200	$1.22	14d	1	0.61mi
509 Bonita Vista Dr Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1816	$1,950	$1.07	45d	1	0.62mi
220 Stone Crest Blvd Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2248	$2,400	$1.07	25d	1	0.68mi
265 Shale Cir Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1737	$2,075	$1.19	45d	1	0.72mi
307 Andesite Trl Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1739	$2,050	$1.18	45d	1	0.77mi
292 Strawberry Blonde Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1636	$2,085	$1.27	0d	1	0.81mi
1431 Firecracker Buda, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1328	$2,800	$2.11	3d	38	0.82mi
111 Lynn Crest Bnd Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1743	$1,950	$1.12	45d	1	0.85mi
204 Pine Arbol Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$1,995	$1.20	19d	1	0.86mi
204 Pine Arbol Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,100	$1.27	45d	1	0.86mi
168 Willow Leaf Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,245	$1.35	45d	1	0.86mi
140 Sundown Ave Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	2151	$2,250	$1.05	45d	1	0.98mi
370 Vermilion Marble Trl Buda, TX	4.0	3.0	2097	$2,195	$1.05	19d	1	1.02mi
264 Vermilion Marble Trl Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	1950	$2,150	$1.10	14d	1	1.06mi
159 Joseph Dr Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2850	$2,950	$1.04	45d	1	1.18mi
251 Wolf Berry Path Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1704	$1,945	$1.14	16d	1	1.19mi
184 Wolf Berry Path Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	1743	$1,875	$1.08	45d	1	1.20mi
228 Pigeon Berry Pass Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,895	$1.13	6d	1	1.23mi
497 Esperanza Dr Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1996	$2,195	$1.10	45d	1	1.25mi
227 Sandstone Trl Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2702	$2,500	$0.93	19d	1	1.26mi
150 Harvest Meadows Rd Buda, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1533	$2,286	$1.49	3d	10	1.26mi
283 Fieldwood Dr Unit A Buda, TX	4.0	2.5	2108	$2,200	$1.04	46d	1	1.30mi
2480 Green Meadows Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	2201	$1,995	$0.91	6d	1	1.31mi
232 Natchez Dr Buda, TX	4.0	2.0	2028	$2,500	$1.23	16d	1	1.32mi
496 Fieldwood Dr Unit B Buda, TX	3.0	2.5	1700	$2,100	$1.24	25d	1	1.36mi
5850 Dacy Ln Buda, TX	3.0	2.0	1820	$1,900	$1.04	25d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $275,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $275,000 Active Under Contract 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $275,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $275,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $275,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $275,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-04-20
    status Active 1259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1259 chars)

    This unique . 66-acre property on the growing W. Goforth corridor offers exceptional potential for investors, builders, or business owners. The area has been gradually transitioning from residential to commercial and mixed-use development, making this an ideal opportunity for redevelopment or a contractor’s headquarters with room to park multiple trucks and equipment. Located B2 Arterial Business District. Buyer to verify all information. The property currently features a residential structure that is best suited for a flip, major renovation, or redevelopment project. Evidence of foundation issues is present. Being offered as an Estate Sale and sold AS-IS, with no Seller’s Disclosure Notice or survey available. Nearby zoning districts commonly allow uses such as office space, medical or dental offices, daycare, and other commercial or mixed-use applications (buyers to verify with the city). Conveniently located just minutes from * * Buda’s vibrant Downtown Buda / Main Street district, with popular restaurants, coffee shops, and local businesses. Whether you're looking for a redevelopment opportunity, a commercial conversion, or a residential project, this property offers significant potential in a rapidly evolving area.

16. 2026-04-10
    historical Active Under Contract 1259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1259 chars)

    This unique . 66-acre property on the growing W. Goforth corridor offers exceptional potential for investors, builders, or business owners. The area has been gradually transitioning from residential to commercial and mixed-use development, making this an ideal opportunity for redevelopment or a contractor’s headquarters with room to park multiple trucks and equipment. Located B2 Arterial Business District. Buyer to verify all information. The property currently features a residential structure that is best suited for a flip, major renovation, or redevelopment project. Evidence of foundation issues is present. Being offered as an Estate Sale and sold AS-IS, with no Seller’s Disclosure Notice or survey available. Nearby zoning districts commonly allow uses such as office space, medical or dental offices, daycare, and other commercial or mixed-use applications (buyers to verify with the city). Conveniently located just minutes from * * Buda’s vibrant Downtown Buda / Main Street district, with popular restaurants, coffee shops, and local businesses. Whether you're looking for a redevelopment opportunity, a commercial conversion, or a residential project, this property offers significant potential in a rapidly evolving area.

17. 2026-03-14
    listed $275,000 Active 1259-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1259 chars)

    This unique . 66-acre property on the growing W. Goforth corridor offers exceptional potential for investors, builders, or business owners. The area has been gradually transitioning from residential to commercial and mixed-use development, making this an ideal opportunity for redevelopment or a contractor’s headquarters with room to park multiple trucks and equipment. Located B2 Arterial Business District. Buyer to verify all information. The property currently features a residential structure that is best suited for a flip, major renovation, or redevelopment project. Evidence of foundation issues is present. Being offered as an Estate Sale and sold AS-IS, with no Seller’s Disclosure Notice or survey available. Nearby zoning districts commonly allow uses such as office space, medical or dental offices, daycare, and other commercial or mixed-use applications (buyers to verify with the city). Conveniently located just minutes from * * Buda’s vibrant Downtown Buda / Main Street district, with popular restaurants, coffee shops, and local businesses. Whether you're looking for a redevelopment opportunity, a commercial conversion, or a residential project, this property offers significant potential in a rapidly evolving area.

18. 1979-08-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,656 · $388/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$377/yr (+$31/mo · 8.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,656
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,176
• − Management: −$2,176
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$6,585
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,580
• After-tax cash flow: $-266/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hays CISD
• NCES district ID: 4800010
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,570
• Composite: 34.78/100
• National rank: #5118
• State rank: #390 of 826 in TX

Livability — Buda

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #339
• US rank: #7407

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Buda, TX
• County: Hays County · 280,138 people
• City population: 48,319
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 48,319
• Household income: $119,698
• Rent vs Own: 21.2% rent · 78.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 611.0

Population outlook (Hays County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 286,948 people
• By 2030: 336,923 · +17.4%
• By 2040: 441,894 · +54.0%
• By 2050: 553,462 · +92.9%
• By 2075: 838,261 · +192.1%
• By 2100: 1,063,658 · +270.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 20% Arabic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hays

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.7) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.7pp toward D · 2008: -2.0pp · 2024: 5.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.7 2020: D+10.8 2016: R+0.9 2012: R+10.4 2008: R+2.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -161.50%
• Current HPI: 220.6824
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.80%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Relisted — Unlock MLS
• 2026-04-10 Contingent — Unlock MLS
• 2026-03-14 Listed $275,000 Unlock MLS
• 1979-08-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,656 · +9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.