704 16th Ave N · South St. Paul, MN 55075

$280,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,764 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1968 5,183 sqft lot $159/sqft · 27% below area Est $356k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

Key facts

• 5,183 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1968

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1-car, 21x13; 7' door height, 13' door width)
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One story; Concrete perimeter foundation; Asphalt shingle roof (over 8 years old)
• Construction: Frame construction; Foundation area approximately 1,036 square feet
• Exterior features: Stucco exterior; Full yard fencing; Storage shed; Light tree coverage; Paved streets with public maintenance

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (two on the main level, one on the lower level)
• Bathrooms: One full bath on the main floor; One three-quarter bath in the basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Finished basement with egress window(s); Eat-in kitchen
• Laundry & utility: Washer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-89 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $264k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (19.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (19.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in South St. Paul — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• South St. Paul Public School District (suburban): math 23% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #266 of 301 in MN (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Center Elementary (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #636 of 857 statewide, top 76%, 666 students, 58% FRL); South St. Paul Middle School (math 12% / reading 30%, grade F, #231 of 258 statewide, top 89%, 658 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 36% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $156k; list at $280k implies a 79% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $226,025 (19.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $356,406
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -21.44%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-51,028
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-51,726
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55075

• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,260 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$289 /mo · $3,472/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,373

Max offer price $264,321

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $70	-5% $-10	+0% $-89	+5% $-168	+10% $-247
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-178	+0% $-89	+5% $1	+10% $90
Rate	-1.0pp $52	-0.5pp $-18	base $-89	+0.5pp $-161	+1.0pp $-235

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1565 Waterloo Ave Saint Paul, MN	4.0	2.0	2244	$2,800	$1.25	19d	1	0.68mi
421 Stanley St Unit 423 St Paul, MN	2.0	1.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	6d	1	1.03mi
240 Thompson Ave E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	997	$2,747	$2.76	0d	17	1.05mi
252 Marie Ave E Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.5	882	$2,600	$2.95	0d	6	1.25mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $280,000 Pending 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $280,000 Active 9 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   remarks 296-char remark
8. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $280,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-05-08
   listed $280,000 Active
10. 2014-10-31
    soldstatus $156,000
11. 2014-09-19
    soldstatus $156,000 Sold 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

12. 2014-09-19
    soldstatus $156,000

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

13. 2014-09-19
    soldstatus $156,000

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

14. 2014-09-17
    status Pending 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

15. 2014-08-21
    status Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

16. 2014-08-07
    status Pending 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

17. 2014-07-29
    historical Contingent - Inspection 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

18. 2014-07-07
    price $169,900 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

19. 2014-06-05
    price $174,900 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

20. 2014-05-10
    listed $179,900 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

21. 2014-05-10
    listed $169,900

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

22. 2014-05-10
    listed $169,900

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Well maintained Rambler on North side. Notice the room sizes. Each Main floor Bedroom has Double Closets. Newer furnace, a/c unit, roof and updated main floor bathroom with whirlpool bath. Eat in Kitchen has newer flooring. Notice Lower level rooms also.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,472 · $289/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,472 · $289/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$3,472
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,170
• − Management: −$2,170
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$5,918
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,420
• After-tax cash flow: $355/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733270
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $55,787
• Composite: 25.47/100
• National rank: #7445
• State rank: #266 of 301 in MN

Livability — South St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: South St. Paul, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 20,651
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 20,714
• Household income: $88,386
• Rent vs Own: 30.2% rent · 69.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 7% Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -277.43%
• Current HPI: 249.4573
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+64.8% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-06-08 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Listed $280,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records
• 2014-09-19 Sold (MLS) $156,000 LSAR
• 2014-09-19 Sold (MLS) $156,000 RASM
• 2014-09-19 Sold (MLS) $156,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-09-17 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-21 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-08-07 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-29 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-07-07 Price Changed $169,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-06-05 Price Changed $174,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-10 Listed $179,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-05-10 Listed $169,900 LSAR
• 2014-05-10 Listed $169,900 RASM

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,472 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.