9515 Lakeview Rd · Union City, GA 30291

$179,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 152 Days on market

Built 2005 3,049 sqft lot Est $229k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Price Reduced! Great First Time Buyer Home! Property offers three bedroom, two and a half bath large family room with cozy fireplace. Eat in kitchen, with dishwasher, refrigerator, range, built in microwave, nice size pantry. Property needs some TLC make it your own. PLEASE NOTE: PROPERTY SOLD AS IS; NO REPAIRS, CONCESSIONS, OR SALES PRICE REDUCTIONS WILL BE CONSIDERED BASED ON THE BUYER'S INSPECTION REPORTS. BUYER HAS 7 DAY INSPECTION PERIOD UPON RECEIVING RATIFIED CONTRACTS. IF UTILITIES ARE OFF DUE TO PROPERTY CONDITION, THE SELLER WILL NOT REPAIR TO FACILITATE INSPECTION. 1) All offers must be submitted at www. vrmproperties.com. Agents must register as a User, enter the property addres

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2005

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $158k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 5.4% in Union City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#443 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Fulton County (suburban): math 49% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #12 of 174 in GA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Point Elementary School (math 37% / reading 31%, grade F, #554 of 1,228 statewide, top 46%, 694 students, 100% FRL); Renaissance Middle School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #301 of 470 statewide, top 66%, 1,166 students, 71% FRL); Langston Hughes High School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #336 of 424 statewide, top 80%, 1,964 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 41% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 51% district-wide (-27 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fulton County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.2%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 11,565 units permitted in Fulton County in 2024 (8,159 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $19k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Fulton County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 2.2% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 152 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $43k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $157,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 152 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.99%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $229,400
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4121 Ravenwood Ct	0.21mi	3/3.0	1,556 (+0%)	4mo	$232,000	$149	84
9441 Lakeview Rd	0.13mi	3/2.5	1,550 (0%)	20mo	$250,700	$162	78
5953 Armour Dr	0.66mi	3/2.5	1,536 (-1%)	5mo	$229,000	$149	63
9498 Lakeview Rd	0.05mi	3/2.5	1,717 (+11%)	22mo	$250,000	$146	62
4432 Ravenwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,479 (-5%)	17mo	$249,900	$169	61
4690 Ravenwood Loop	0.51mi	3/2.5	1,568 (+1%)	17mo	$209,000	$133	60
4654 Ravenwood Loop	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,711 (+10%)	3mo	$230,000	$134	60
4410 Roche St	0.39mi	3/3.5	1,680 (+8%)	6mo	$235,000	$140	59
4040 Robin Cir	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,644 (+6%)	21mo	$244,000	$148	58
4510 Swan Trce	0.44mi	3/2.5	1,744 (+12%)	4mo	$200,000	$115	55
5920 Rock Rd	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+4%)	1mo	$265,000	$164	55
10314 Deep Creek Cv	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,721 (+11%)	7mo	$210,000	$122	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.2% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.23×
• Total profit: $111,929
• Equity at exit: $161,257

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.27×
• Total profit: $314,126
• Equity at exit: $347,758

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30291

• Home prices YoY: 11.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.2%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,975 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$296 /mo · $3,557/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$415
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,658

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $352	-5% $301	+0% $250	+5% $200	+10% $149
Rent	-10% $94	-5% $172	+0% $250	+5% $328	+10% $406
Rate	-1.0pp $340	-0.5pp $296	base $250	+0.5pp $204	+1.0pp $157

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,595	$1.14	25d	1	0.10mi
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,595	$1.14	2d	1	0.10mi
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,625	$1.17	44d	1	0.10mi
4037 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1394	$1,595	$1.14	16d	1	0.10mi
4509 Ravenwood Pl Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1394	$1,970	$1.41	13d	1	0.18mi
4122 Ravenwood Ct Union City, GA	3.0	3.0	1394	$1,849	$1.33	25d	1	0.18mi
4223 Reeshemah St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1843	$1,995	$1.08	6d	1	0.37mi
4420 Roche St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1622	$2,130	$1.31	44d	1	0.39mi
4407 Roche St Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.0	1650	$1,875	$1.14	44d	1	0.40mi
4062 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	3.0	1874	$1,910	$1.02	25d	1	0.40mi
4056 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1174	$1,895	$1.61	25d	1	0.41mi
4064 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1874	$1,895	$1.01	25d	1	0.42mi
3228 Diamond Blf Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1922	$2,195	$1.14	44d	1	0.44mi
4108 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1786	$2,400	$1.34	44d	1	0.44mi
4666 Ravenwood Loop Union City, GA	4.0	3.0	1916	$2,175	$1.14	25d	1	0.45mi
3234 Diamond Blf Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1922	$2,360	$1.23	6d	1	0.46mi
4095 Robin Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	2196	$2,023	$0.92	44d	1	0.46mi
4681 Ravenwood Loop Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1593	$1,999	$1.25	44d	1	0.49mi
4407 Sparrow Cir Atlanta, GA	3.0–5.0	2.5–3.0	2055	$2,335	$1.14	2d	10	0.54mi
4497 Ravenwood Dr Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.57mi
4497 Ravenwood Dr Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1694	$2,000	$1.18	21d	1	0.57mi
12076 Crosswicks Rd Union City, GA	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1617	$2,731	$1.69	2d	6	0.70mi
12006 Crosswicks Rd Unit Sunshine Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1821	$2,770	$1.52	4d	1	0.81mi
12006 Crosswicks Rd Union City, GA	4.0	3.0	1821	$3,468	$1.90	45d	1	0.86mi
12006 Crosswicks Rd Unit 105 Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1413	$2,455	$1.74	44d	1	0.86mi
12006 Crosswicks Rd Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	1413	$2,545	$1.80	16d	1	0.86mi
3416 Stonewall Ct Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1690	$2,450	$1.45	25d	1	0.89mi
5950 Stonewall Dr Unit 2 Union City, GA	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,495	$1.13	16d	1	0.94mi
5950 Stonewall Dr Unit 4 Union City, GA	3.0	1.0	1320	$1,445	$1.09	3d	1	0.94mi
5791 Blacktop Ct Fairburn, GA	4.0	2.5	1991	$2,423	$1.22	44d	1	0.95mi
5616 Union Pointe Dr Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1387	$1,545	$1.11	44d	1	0.98mi
6115 Forrest Ave Union City, GA	4.0	2.0	1368	$1,690	$1.24	44d	1	1.00mi
5458 Union Hill Ct Union City, GA	3.0	2.5	1650	$2,096	$1.27	25d	1	1.01mi
4812 Station Ln Atlanta, GA	3.0	2.5	1695	$2,100	$1.24	2d	1	1.02mi
5548 Union Pointe Pl Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1763	$2,400	$1.36	44d	1	1.03mi
5140 Highpoint Rd Apt 27 Union City, GA	2.0	2.5	1290	$1,295	$1.00	13d	1	1.03mi
5530 Union Pointe Pl Union City, GA	3.0	2.0	1293	$1,650	$1.28	18d	1	1.03mi
8317 Hunters Grove Rd Union City, GA	4.0	2.5	1821	$5,500	$3.02	44d	1	1.09mi
5131 Forest Downs Ln Atlanta, GA	4.0	2.0	2112	$1,580	$0.75	4d	1	1.22mi
6120 Longino Dr Union City, GA	4.0	2.0	1608	$1,835	$1.14	13d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2025-10-15
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-09-24
   price $179,000
3. 2025-08-18
   price $189,000
4. 2025-07-19
   price $199,000
5. 2025-06-18
   price $209,000
6. 2025-05-13
   listed $222,000 New
7. 2025-03-31
   historical
8. 2025-03-31
   historical
9. 2025-01-28
   status Back On Market
10. 2025-01-28
    status Active
11. 2025-01-01
    status Pending
12. 2024-12-02
    status Pending Offer Approval
13. 2024-11-19
    status Back On Market
14. 2024-10-01
    status Active
15. 2024-09-06
    status Under Contract
16. 2024-08-31
    status Active
17. 2024-08-30
    status New
18. 2024-08-13
    historical
19. 2024-08-09
    status New
20. 2024-07-16
    historical
21. 2024-07-09
    listed $195,000 Active
22. 2024-07-09
    listed $195,000 New
23. 2024-06-24
    historical
24. 2024-01-13
    listed $249,000 New
25. 2005-02-17
    soldstatus $527,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,557 · $296/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,557 · $296/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$3,557
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,896
• − Management: −$1,896
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $219
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$53
• After-tax cash flow: $2,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fulton County
• NCES district ID: 1302280
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $68,035
• Composite: 45.33/100
• National rank: #2640
• State rank: #12 of 174 in GA

Livability — Union City

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #443
• US rank: #21281

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Union City, GA
• County: Fulton County · 1,094,430 people
• City population: 25,130
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,130
• Household income: $48,184
• Rent vs Own: 61.3% rent · 38.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1778.0

Population outlook (Fulton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,203,707 people
• By 2030: 1,299,706 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 1,488,256 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 1,664,580 · +38.3%
• By 2075: 2,036,072 · +69.2%
• By 2100: 2,222,402 · +84.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% White 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Fulton

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.9) · D 71.9% · R 27.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.8pp toward D · 2008: 35.0pp · 2024: 44.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.9 2020: D+46.4 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+29.6 2008: D+35.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.98%
• Current HPI: 239.3471
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.20%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-66.0% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-15 Pending — GAMLS
• 2025-09-24 Price Changed $179,000 GAMLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $189,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-19 Price Changed $199,000 GAMLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $209,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-13 Listed $222,000 GAMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-01-28 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2025-01-28 Relisted — FMLS
• 2025-01-01 Pending — FMLS
• 2024-12-02 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-11-19 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-10-01 Relisted — FMLS
• 2024-09-06 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-08-31 Relisted — FMLS
• 2024-08-30 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-08-13 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-08-09 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2024-07-16 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-07-09 Listed $195,000 GAMLS
• 2024-07-09 Listed $195,000 FMLS
• 2024-06-24 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-01-13 Listed $249,000 GAMLS
• 2005-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $527,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,557 · +37.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.