1504 Kettering Way · Lakeside, FL 32073

$118,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,101 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 126 Days on market

Built 1982 871 sqft lot Est $236k · 50% under $310/mo HOA · 20% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this inviting two-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome that blends comfort and convenience. The open-concept living with warm welcoming vibe. Upstairs, you'll find two generous bedrooms with roomy closets and a shared full bath, while the main level includes a handy half bath for guests. A private patio provides a relaxing spot for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Located close to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, this home makes daily life easy. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment property, 1504 Kettering Way is ready to welcome you home.

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Local market runs
• Newer flooring

Tags

• NEWER ROOF
• NEWER AC
• NEWER FLOORING
• WALKING DISTANCE TO SHOPS
• MINUTES FROM MAJOR ROUTES
• LOCAL MARKET RUNS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowner association with monthly fee of $310; HOA fee includes water, sewer, and trash; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking in a parking lot
• Utilities: Public sewer; Water connected; Sewer connected; Electricity connected; Cable available
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; South-facing; Property attached
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Community pool (not private); Private road frontage with asphalt surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $100 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $104k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.7% in Lakeside — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#505 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lakeside Elementary School (math 67% / reading 69%, grade B+, #425 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 817 students, 100% FRL); Lakeside Junior High School (math 74% / reading 69%, grade A, #57 of 571 statewide, top 10%, 870 students, 43% FRL); Orange Park High School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #321 of 667 statewide, top 49%, 1,810 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 35% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 249 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 126 days — a 12% lower offer ($104k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $103,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 126 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.64%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $235,614
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1204 Kettering Way	0.03mi	2/1.5	1,101 (0%)	24mo	$130,000	$118	79
558 William Paca St	0.51mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,189 (+8%)	11mo	$255,000	$214	47
610 Thomas McKeen	0.67mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,183 (+7%)	19mo	$290,000	$245	34
558 George Taylor St	0.62mi	2/2.0	1,246 (+13%)	16mo	$240,000	$193	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-17,081
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-23,410
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32073

• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 249
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,558 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax from tax record: −$153 /mo · $1,830/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$310
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $100

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,431

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
227 Kettering Ct Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1265	$1,600	$1.26	7d	1	0.03mi
2299 Constitution Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1468	$2,200	$1.50	19d	1	0.58mi
2939 Lakeside Villa Dr Unit G Orange Park, FL	2.0	2.0	1038	$1,500	$1.45	23d	1	0.81mi
599 Richard Lee St Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,795	$1.23	12d	1	0.81mi
2150 Spencer Rd Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.0	1140	$1,304	$1.14	2d	4	0.82mi
2300 Twelve Oaks Dr Unit F2 Orange Park, FL	2.0	1.0	1016	$1,299	$1.28	7d	1	0.91mi
1800 Kingsley Ave Orange Park, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,450	$1.47	23d	1	0.93mi
222 Blairmore Blvd Orange Park, FL	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,175	$1.18	2d	9	1.05mi
295 Blairmore Blvd Orange Park, FL	3.0	1.5	960	$1,650	$1.72	2d	1	1.24mi
417 Gano Ave Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,900	$1.40	23d	1	1.35mi
220 Woodside Dr Orange Park, FL	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,200	$1.11	23d	1	1.44mi
495 Sigsbee Rd Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,675	$1.34	23d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $310 · $3,720/yr

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-03-06
   price $118,000
2. 2026-02-13
   status Active
3. 2026-02-10
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-19
   listed $120,000 Active
5. 2025-12-18
   historical 606-char remark

   Show marketing remark (606 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting two-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome that blends comfort and convenience. The open-concept living with warm welcoming vibe. Upstairs, you'll find two generous bedrooms with roomy closets and a shared full bath, while the main level includes a handy half bath for guests. A private patio provides a relaxing spot for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Located close to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, this home makes daily life easy. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment property, 1504 Kettering Way is ready to welcome you home.

6. 2025-11-07
   price $122,000 606-char remark

   Show marketing remark (606 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting two-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome that blends comfort and convenience. The open-concept living with warm welcoming vibe. Upstairs, you'll find two generous bedrooms with roomy closets and a shared full bath, while the main level includes a handy half bath for guests. A private patio provides a relaxing spot for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Located close to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, this home makes daily life easy. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment property, 1504 Kettering Way is ready to welcome you home.

7. 2025-10-09
   price $130,000 606-char remark

   Show marketing remark (606 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting two-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhome that blends comfort and convenience. The open-concept living with warm welcoming vibe. Upstairs, you'll find two generous bedrooms with roomy closets and a shared full bath, while the main level includes a handy half bath for guests. A private patio provides a relaxing spot for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Located close to shopping, dining, and major commuter routes, this home makes daily life easy. Whether you're a first-time buyer, downsizing, or looking for an investment property, 1504 Kettering Way is ready to welcome you home.

8. 2025-09-22
   historical 748-char remark

   Show marketing remark (748 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting two-bedrooms, 1.5 bath condo that blends comfort and convenience. The open-concept living and dining area offers plenty of natural lights and a warm, welcoming vibe. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space- perfect for everyday meals or weekend entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find two generous bedrooms with roomy closets and a shared full bath, while the main level includes a handy half bath for guests. A private patio provides a relaxing spot for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Located close to shopping, dining, and major commuters routes, this home makes daily life easy. Whether you're a first-time buyers, downsizing, or looking for an investment property, 1504 Kettering Way is ready to welcome you home.

9. 2025-09-19
   listed $132,900 Active 606-char remark

   Show marketing remark (748 chars)

   Welcome to this inviting two-bedrooms, 1.5 bath condo that blends comfort and convenience. The open-concept living and dining area offers plenty of natural lights and a warm, welcoming vibe. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space- perfect for everyday meals or weekend entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find two generous bedrooms with roomy closets and a shared full bath, while the main level includes a handy half bath for guests. A private patio provides a relaxing spot for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Located close to shopping, dining, and major commuters routes, this home makes daily life easy. Whether you're a first-time buyers, downsizing, or looking for an investment property, 1504 Kettering Way is ready to welcome you home.

10. 2025-09-19
    listed $132,900 Active 748-char remark

    Show marketing remark (748 chars)

    Welcome to this inviting two-bedrooms, 1.5 bath condo that blends comfort and convenience. The open-concept living and dining area offers plenty of natural lights and a warm, welcoming vibe. The kitchen offers ample cabinet space- perfect for everyday meals or weekend entertaining. Upstairs, you'll find two generous bedrooms with roomy closets and a shared full bath, while the main level includes a handy half bath for guests. A private patio provides a relaxing spot for morning coffee or evening gatherings. Located close to shopping, dining, and major commuters routes, this home makes daily life easy. Whether you're a first-time buyers, downsizing, or looking for an investment property, 1504 Kettering Way is ready to welcome you home.

11. 2025-05-16
    soldstatus $121,500 Closed
12. 2025-04-21
    status Pending
13. 2025-03-27
    price $125,000
14. 2025-03-13
    price $128,000
15. 2025-02-27
    price $130,000
16. 2025-02-13
    price $133,000
17. 2025-01-23
    price $134,000
18. 2024-12-05
    price $136,000
19. 2024-10-31
    price $138,000
20. 2024-09-12
    price $140,000
21. 2024-08-21
    listed $141,000 Active
22. 2024-08-02
    soldstatus $137,900
23. 2020-06-24
    soldstatus $75,000
24. 2002-02-21
    soldstatus $56,000
25. 1992-05-21
    soldstatus $34,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,830 · $153/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,830 · $153/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,696
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$1,830
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,496
• − Management: −$1,496
• − HOA: −$3,720
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable loss: −$478
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$115
• After-tax cash flow: $1,319/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeside

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #505
• US rank: #9341

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeside, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 43,561
• Household income: $76,455
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1544.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 10% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Tagalog/Filipino 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.76%
• Current HPI: 289.8735
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.87%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+238.1% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $118,000 realMLS
• 2026-02-13 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-02-10 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-01-19 Listed $120,000 realMLS
• 2025-12-18 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-11-07 Price Changed $122,000 realMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $130,000 realMLS
• 2025-09-22 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $132,900 realMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $132,900 realMLS
• 2025-05-16 Sold (MLS) $121,500 realMLS
• 2025-04-21 Pending — realMLS
• 2025-03-27 Price Changed $125,000 realMLS
• 2025-03-13 Price Changed $128,000 realMLS
• 2025-02-27 Price Changed $130,000 realMLS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $133,000 realMLS
• 2025-01-23 Price Changed $134,000 realMLS
• 2024-12-05 Price Changed $136,000 realMLS
• 2024-10-31 Price Changed $138,000 realMLS
• 2024-09-12 Price Changed $140,000 realMLS
• 2024-08-21 Listed $141,000 realMLS
• 2024-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $137,900 Public Records
• 2020-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2002-02-21 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1992-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $34,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+9.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,830 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.