5458 W Montebello Way · Florence, AZ 85132

$286,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,480 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 2015 6,251 sqft lot $193/sqft · 21% below area Est $362k · 21% under $178/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-In Ready! Beautiful home with a gorgeous backyard, ready for entertaining family and friends! This home has many upgrades, especially in the kitchen with granite counter tops and cabinets that have pull-outs. Ceiling fans in all rooms. 10 ft. ceilings. Solar panels. This home offers an open floor plan offering 2 bedrooms with a den/office and has a 2-car garage. Backyard is a paradise with inviting landscape. The Spa/hot tub is not included in the sale, but is negotiable. Show and Sell!

Key facts

• 6,251 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee of $534; Association covers grounds maintenance; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage
• Security: Owned security system
• Utilities: Private water company; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Synthetic stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Desert front and back landscaping

Interior

• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Ceiling fans; Other cooling
• Interior features: Primary bedroom with full bathroom; Living room with fireplace; Solar panels
• Laundry & utility: Laundry area (other)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $286k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (5.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (5.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.1% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Skyline Ranch Elementary School (math 21% / reading 30%, grade F, #631 of 1,109 statewide, top 57%, 584 students, 49% FRL); Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 736 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,485 (5.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.94%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.30%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $361,959
• List price: $286,000
• Delta: -20.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5458 W Montebello Way	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,480 (0%)	0mo	$286,000	$193	100
5590 W Victory Way	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+0%)	12mo	$294,000	$199	84
3405 N San Marin Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,481 (+0%)	8mo	$248,000	$167	84
6375 W Heritage Way	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,495 (+1%)	5mo	$343,999	$230	62
4290 N Presidio Dr	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,557 (+5%)	4mo	$428,500	$275	54
6466 W Heritage Way	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-7%)	2mo	$304,000	$220	52
6611 W Trenton Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,627 (+10%)	2mo	$340,000	$209	47
8560 W Yorktown Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,578 (+7%)	9mo	$320,000	$203	46
6399 W Saratoga Way	0.61mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,613 (+9%)	14mo	$385,000	$239	40
6569 W Yorktown Ct	0.70mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-7%)	15mo	$312,500	$226	39
4279 N Spyglass Dr	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,671 (+13%)	10mo	$375,000	$224	30
4254 N Spyglass Dr	0.73mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,626 (+10%)	19mo	$470,000	$289	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-41,141
• Equity at exit: $42,644

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-41,384
• Equity at exit: $24,728

Cash invested: $80,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 736
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,500
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,234/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$178
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,510

Max offer price $286,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $316	-5% $235	+0% $154	+5% $73	+10% $-8
Rent	-10% $-60	-5% $47	+0% $154	+5% $261	+10% $367
Rate	-1.0pp $298	-0.5pp $226	base $154	+0.5pp $80	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,500
• Closing costs: $8,580
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3658 N Princeton Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	44d	1	0.66mi
2926 N Coronado Dr Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1756	$2,200	$1.25	44d	1	0.66mi
6431 W Sandpiper Way Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1817	$3,500	$1.93	44d	1	0.87mi
3947 N Hidden Canyon Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	44d	1	0.95mi
6566 W Mockingbird Ct Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1381	$3,000	$2.17	44d	1	1.00mi
4518 N Petersburg Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1644	$2,500	$1.52	25d	1	1.27mi
7347 W Millerton Way Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1449	$1,695	$1.17	44d	1	1.41mi
4394 N Hummingbird Dr Florence, AZ	2.0	2.0	1586	$3,500	$2.21	44d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $178 · $2,136/yr

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $286,000 413-char remark
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $291,000 Active 413-char remark
3. 2026-04-14
   soldstatus $283,400
4. 2022-08-26
   historical
5. 2022-08-25
   price $324,999
6. 2022-08-20
   listed $325,000 Active
7. 2018-10-22
   soldstatus $185,000 Closed

   Show marketing remark (503 chars)

   Move-In Ready! Beautiful home with a gorgeous backyard, ready for entertaining family and friends! This home has many upgrades, especially in the kitchen with granite counter tops and cabinets that have pull-outs. Ceiling fans in all rooms. 10 ft. ceilings. Solar panels. This home offers an open floor plan offering 2 bedrooms with a den/office and has a 2-car garage. Backyard is a paradise with inviting landscape. The Spa/hot tub is not included in the sale, but is negotiable. Show and Sell!

8. 2018-09-15
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (503 chars)

   Move-In Ready! Beautiful home with a gorgeous backyard, ready for entertaining family and friends! This home has many upgrades, especially in the kitchen with granite counter tops and cabinets that have pull-outs. Ceiling fans in all rooms. 10 ft. ceilings. Solar panels. This home offers an open floor plan offering 2 bedrooms with a den/office and has a 2-car garage. Backyard is a paradise with inviting landscape. The Spa/hot tub is not included in the sale, but is negotiable. Show and Sell!

9. 2018-08-30
   price $184,900

   Show marketing remark (503 chars)

   Move-In Ready! Beautiful home with a gorgeous backyard, ready for entertaining family and friends! This home has many upgrades, especially in the kitchen with granite counter tops and cabinets that have pull-outs. Ceiling fans in all rooms. 10 ft. ceilings. Solar panels. This home offers an open floor plan offering 2 bedrooms with a den/office and has a 2-car garage. Backyard is a paradise with inviting landscape. The Spa/hot tub is not included in the sale, but is negotiable. Show and Sell!

10. 2018-08-06
    listed $189,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (503 chars)

    Move-In Ready! Beautiful home with a gorgeous backyard, ready for entertaining family and friends! This home has many upgrades, especially in the kitchen with granite counter tops and cabinets that have pull-outs. Ceiling fans in all rooms. 10 ft. ceilings. Solar panels. This home offers an open floor plan offering 2 bedrooms with a den/office and has a 2-car garage. Backyard is a paradise with inviting landscape. The Spa/hot tub is not included in the sale, but is negotiable. Show and Sell!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,234 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,234 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 5 d/yr ≥112°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,458
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,020
• − Property taxes: −$2,234
• − Insurance: −$1,430
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,597
• − Management: −$2,597
• − HOA: −$2,136
• − Depreciation: −$8,320
• Taxable loss: −$2,876
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$690
• After-tax cash flow: $2,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+50.6% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) $286,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-25 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $286,000 ARMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $291,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $283,400 Public Records
• 2022-08-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-08-25 Price Changed $324,999 ARMLS
• 2022-08-20 Listed $325,000 ARMLS
• 2018-10-22 Sold (MLS) $185,000 ARMLS
• 2018-09-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-08-30 Price Changed $184,900 ARMLS
• 2018-08-06 Listed $189,900 ARMLS

Property tax history

+23.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,234 · +8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.