419 E 48th Pl · Gary, IN 46409

$120,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 962 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1963 6,890 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.7/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Appreciation +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New carpet, new ceramic in kitchen and bathroom, 1.5 car garage - * fenced back yard - 2 beautiful bedrooms downstairs - 4 bedrooms in all! MUST SEE!!!

Key facts

• 6,890 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1963

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is vacant; Not listed as an auction

Exterior

• Parking: One-car garage
• Security: Not specified
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: One-level home; Built in 1963
• Construction: Year built 1963; Basement (finished)
• Exterior features: No notable view; Public lot size source (assessor)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom; Second bedroom
• Flooring: Not specified
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: No interior features listed; Finished basement with sump pump
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility area (sump pump present)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $377 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#105 in IN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, employment F.
• Gary Community School Corporation (urban): math 3% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #299 of 301 in IN (top 99%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.8%/yr); 75 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 7d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 1,642 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($45k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.8% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.46%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $66,378
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
436 E 48th Ave	0.08mi	3/1.0	925 (-4%)	2mo	$100,000	$108	88
436 E 47th Pl	0.13mi	3/1.0	925 (-4%)	0mo	$157,000	$170	87
4477 Maryland St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	970 (+1%)	10mo	$27,000	$28	65
4524 Connecticut St	0.42mi	4/1.0 (+1)	931 (-3%)	9mo	$26,500	$28	63
5043 Carolina St	0.32mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+14%)	3mo	$140,000	$127	59
5052 Ohio Ct	0.59mi	3/1.0	975 (+1%)	14mo	$20,000	$21	58
4947 Madison St	0.54mi	3/1.0	867 (-10%)	1mo	$130,000	$150	58
4601 Connecticut St	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	912 (-5%)	15mo	$12,000	$13	57
4467 Connecticut St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	925 (-4%)	12mo	$64,000	$69	57
1446 E 50th Ct	0.72mi	3/1.0	925 (-4%)	9mo	$28,000	$30	52
1501 E 50th Pl	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,014 (+5%)	8mo	$137,500	$136	51
4341 Maryland St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	864 (-10%)	7mo	$59,000	$68	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $7,228
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $48,581
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Indiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day pay-or-quit; landlord-favorable; preempted.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 46409

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,423 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$299
• Net cashflow: $377

Break-even live

Break-even rent $946

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4816 Massachusetts St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1024	$1,350	$1.32	15d	1	0.22mi
5001 Carolina St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	875	$1,350	$1.54	2d	1	0.31mi
4905 Kentucky St Unit 4901 Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	950	$1,525	$1.61	24d	1	0.45mi
4456 Connecticut St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	2d	1	0.48mi
4974 Tennessee St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,175	$1.07	19d	1	0.51mi
4748 Monroe St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	1074	$1,695	$1.58	1d	1	0.60mi
624 W 44th Pl Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	836	$1,250	$1.50	7d	1	0.84mi
1240 W 52nd Dr Merrillville, IN	2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,349	$1.41	1d	9	1.14mi
4364 Buchanan St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	1d	1	1.24mi
4170 Fillmore St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	720	$950	$1.32	19d	1	1.28mi
4018 Tyler St Gary, IN	3.0	1.0	880	$1,350	$1.53	1d	1	1.32mi
5850 Pennsylvania St Merrillville, IN	1.0–2.0	1.0	826	$1,195	$1.45	1d	4	1.33mi
5719 Van Buren St Merrillville, IN	3.0	2.0	950	$1,500	$1.58	21d	1	1.37mi
4040 Fillmore St Gary, IN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	10d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-30
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-30
   listed $120,000 Active
3. 2003-11-20
   historical
4. 2002-11-15
   listed $57,900 152-char remark

   Show marketing remark (152 chars)

   New carpet, new ceramic in kitchen and bathroom, 1.5 car garage - * fenced back yard - 2 beautiful bedrooms downstairs - 4 bedrooms in all! MUST SEE!!!

5. 2002-05-28
   listed $24,900
6. 2001-10-18
   listed $35,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $814 · $68/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$103/yr (+$9/mo · 12.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 10% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$814
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,366
• − Management: −$1,366
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,715
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$652
• After-tax cash flow: $3,871/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Gary Community School Corporation
• NCES district ID: 1803870
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $27,739
• Composite: 4.98/100
• National rank: #10039
• State rank: #299 of 301 in IN

Livability — Gary

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #5592

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gary, IN
• County: Lake County · 422,878 people
• City population: 63,701
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 7,184
• Household income: $44,667
• Rent vs Own: 55.5% rent · 44.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 516.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 484,026 people
• By 2030: 478,091 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 462,974 · -4.3%
• By 2050: 449,894 · -7.1%
• By 2075: 436,169 · -9.9%
• By 2100: 426,607 · -11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 68% Two or more races 17% Hispanic / Latino 14% White 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.6) · D 52.1% · R 46.5% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.6pp toward R · 2008: 34.3pp · 2024: 5.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.6 2020: D+15.1 2016: D+20.6 2012: D+31.0 2008: D+34.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.91%
• Current HPI: 190.6724
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.85%
• Metro: Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.90%
• F500 in state: 18

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$37B
▸Healthcare	1	$177B
▸Pharmaceuticals	1	$45B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$18B
▸Agriculture	1	$17B
▸Packaging	1	$12B

Price history

+234.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Pending — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Listed $120,000 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-20 Listing Removed — NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-11-15 Listed $57,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2002-05-28 Listed $24,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-10-18 Listed $35,900 NIRA MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $814 · -55.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.