17851 N 16th Pl · Phoenix, AZ 85022

$35,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 864 sqft · Manufactured · 141 Days on market

Built 2010 Good condition $41/sqft · 64% below area ↓ 38% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the desirable age-restricted community of Sunrise Heights, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, privacy, and beautiful mountain views. The primary owner must be 55 years or older. Nestled in a peaceful area of the community and practical layout, you have a gas stove and dryer to save on that APS bill. This home comes with a storage shed for all your extra belongings or tools. You're a short distance away from the recreational center, pool, pickleball court, and more. Don't miss out on this great opportunity

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2010

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $940 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 38.5% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 282 active listings in the ZIP; 36 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 141 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (30%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 141 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 38.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 115.04%
• DSCR: 6.12
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $98,000
• List price: $35,000
• Delta: -64.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1606 E Michelle Dr #138	0.08mi	2/2.0	896 (+4%)	20mo	$52,000	$58	73
17843 N 16th Pl	0.02mi	2/1.0	799 (-8%)	23mo	$9,000	$11	64
1926 E Grovers Ave	0.37mi	2/2.0	924 (+7%)	11mo	$260,000	$281	62
1919 E Libby St	0.36mi	3/2.0 (+1)	898 (+4%)	23mo	$110,000	$122	52
17607 N 15th Pl	0.23mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	22mo	$200,000	$208	52
1939 E Libby St	0.40mi	2/2.0	980 (+13%)	13mo	$175,000	$179	48
1304 E Bell Rd #100	0.53mi	2/2.0	780 (-10%)	17mo	$35,000	$45	45
1304 E Bell Rd #79	0.53mi	2/2.0	960 (+11%)	17mo	$50,000	$52	42
2140 E Michigan Ave #35	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	990 (+15%)	1mo	$98,000	$99	38
1304 E Bell Rd #76	0.53mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+11%)	17mo	$99,000	$103	38
2120 E Bluefield Ave #141	0.71mi	1/1.0 (-1)	768 (-11%)	13mo	$45,000	$59	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.08×
• Total profit: $49,807
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.57×
• Total profit: $103,578
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85022

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,495 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$314
• Net cashflow: $940

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 32%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 36 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1814 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1003	$1,637	$1.63	1d	12	0.44mi
1450 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	957	$1,555	$1.62	2d	93	0.45mi
1130 E Grovers Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	934	$1,336	$1.43	2d	12	0.56mi
1750 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	700	$1,349	$1.93	24d	1	0.57mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	7d	1	0.65mi
1032 E Villa Maria Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1097	$1,850	$1.69	20d	1	0.65mi
2067 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	24d	1	0.65mi
17617 N 9th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,513	$1.58	2d	35	0.66mi
2077 E Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	720	$1,295	$1.80	24d	1	0.68mi
1100 E Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,822	$1.85	1d	26	0.74mi
17017 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	910	$2,500	$2.75	24d	2	0.76mi
16601 N 12th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1242	$1,697	$1.37	2d	21	0.86mi
17602 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	650	$1,625	$2.50	2d	13	0.91mi
17625 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$1,369	$1.48	3d	7	0.93mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	11d	1	0.96mi
726 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1088	$2,000	$1.84	18d	1	0.96mi
18202 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	722	$1,148	$1.59	4d	7	0.96mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Unit 6 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	748	$1,250	$1.67	7d	1	0.97mi
17249 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	956	$1,518	$1.59	2d	37	0.97mi
719 E Lola Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	688	$2,900	$4.22	7d	1	0.98mi
18416 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	786	$3,000	$3.81	4d	9	1.00mi
18660 N Cave Creek Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	961	$1,622	$1.69	2d	11	1.06mi
2554 E Villa Rita Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1118	$2,750	$2.46	24d	1	1.25mi
18217 N 2nd Pl Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	833	$1,300	$1.56	16d	1	1.33mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 112 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	24d	1	1.40mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$829	$1.18	24d	1	1.40mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Unit 312 Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$856	$1.56	22d	1	1.40mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Apt 310 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	24d	1	1.40mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	575	$942	$1.64	4d	6	1.40mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$942	$1.35	22d	1	1.40mi
2424 E Grandview Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,159	$1.66	24d	1	1.40mi
16621 N 25th St Phoenix, AZ	1.0	1.0	570	$899	$1.58	7d	1	1.40mi
16627 N 25th St Unit 23 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	765	$1,145	$1.50	24d	1	1.42mi
16801 N 26th St Apt 17 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	800	$1,195	$1.49	24d	1	1.44mi
19601 N 7th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1000	$1,295	$1.29	5d	3	1.45mi
2201 E Kathleen Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1068	$2,405	$2.25	24d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 141 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 140 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 139 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 138 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 136 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $35,000 Active 135 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 132 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 131 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $40,000 Active 130 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $40,000 Active 127 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 126 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 125 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 124 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 123 DOM
15. 2026-02-03
    price $40,000 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Located in the desirable age-restricted community of Sunrise Heights, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, privacy, and beautiful mountain views. The primary owner must be 55 years or older. Nestled in a peaceful area of the community and practical layout, you have a gas stove and dryer to save on that APS bill. This home comes with a storage shed for all your extra belongings or tools. You're a short distance away from the recreational center, pool, pickleball court, and more. Don't miss out on this great opportunity

16. 2026-01-28
    listed $50,000 Active 539-char remark

    Show marketing remark (539 chars)

    Located in the desirable age-restricted community of Sunrise Heights, this charming 2-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort, privacy, and beautiful mountain views. The primary owner must be 55 years or older. Nestled in a peaceful area of the community and practical layout, you have a gas stove and dryer to save on that APS bill. This home comes with a storage shed for all your extra belongings or tools. You're a short distance away from the recreational center, pool, pickleball court, and more. Don't miss out on this great opportunity

17. 2025-12-02
    historical
18. 2025-09-02
    price $43,000
19. 2025-08-17
    price $45,000
20. 2025-07-16
    price $50,000
21. 2025-06-27
    price $60,000
22. 2025-06-12
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,945
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,436
• − Management: −$1,436
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $11,395
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,735
• After-tax cash flow: $8,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good layout and is well-maintained. It would benefit from some exterior painting and carpet cleaning to further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
• Rental Clean carpets — Clean carpets can improve the living experience for tenants and make the home more appealing to potential renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental Clean carpets — Clean carpets can improve the living experience for tenants and make the home more appealing to potential renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 53,811
• Household income: $69,927
• Rent vs Own: 47.7% rent · 52.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2976.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 13% Other Indo-European 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -329.75%
• Current HPI: 313.5085
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.21%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-38.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $40,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-28 Listed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2025-12-02 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-02 Price Changed $43,000 ARMLS
• 2025-08-17 Price Changed $45,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-16 Price Changed $50,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $60,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-12 Listed $65,000 ARMLS