Kitson Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$203,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · SingleFamily · 220 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $203,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $293,036.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $204k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-524 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1040 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 56d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($180k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,519 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.66%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,036
• List price: $203,999
• Delta: -23.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
132 Star Packer Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	2mo	$211,499	$150	85
148 Star Packer Ln	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	2mo	$212,999	$151	85
136 Star Packer Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	1mo	$229,999	$162	84
165 Star Packer Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	0mo	$213,999	$152	84
229 Brannigan Dr	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-0%)	2mo	$236,990	$169	82
516 Old Western Pass	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+0%)	1mo	$228,490	$162	82
125 Paradise Canyon Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-7%)	0mo	$269,900	$207	79
149 Hatari Trl	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,408 (-0%)	1mo	$249,990	$178	79
101 Captain Dooley Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-7%)	1mo	$269,900	$207	76
125 Hatari Trl	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,501 (+6%)	2mo	$254,990	$170	69
140 Star Packer Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	2mo	$201,999	$159	69
512 Old Western Pass	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,522 (+8%)	2mo	$230,990	$152	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-86,392
• Equity at exit: $43,693

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.70×
• Total profit: $-139,599
• Equity at exit: $25,336

Cash invested: $82,050 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 99 active · 47 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $246,395 ($162/sqft)
• Median days on market: 87 d
• This list price: 11% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +28.3% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1040
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,537
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$366 /mo · $4,396/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-524

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,563

Max offer price $217,227

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-321	-5% $-423	+0% $-524	+5% $-625	+10% $-726
Rent	-10% $-674	-5% $-599	+0% $-524	+5% $-449	+10% $-374
Rate	-1.0pp $-376	-0.5pp $-449	base $-524	+0.5pp $-600	+1.0pp $-677

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,259
• Closing costs: $8,791
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,800	$1.13	0d	1	0.02mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	4d	1	0.03mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	0d	1	0.07mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	98d	1	0.09mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	98d	1	0.10mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$1,830	$0.99	60d	1	0.10mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	103d	1	0.12mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	56d	1	0.17mi
125 Paradise Canyon Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,095	$1.61	78d	1	0.20mi
216 The Duke Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,700	$1.20	77d	1	0.23mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	112d	1	0.26mi
229 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,600	$0.98	24d	1	0.28mi
113 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,500	$1.06	79d	1	0.28mi
137 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	43d	1	0.30mi
149 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	24d	1	0.31mi
153 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	63d	1	0.31mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	93d	1	0.33mi
1109 Paradise Canyon Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1851	$1,950	$1.05	0d	1	0.38mi
204 Robert Hightower Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,750	$1.04	0d	1	0.54mi
256 El Dorado Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,650	$1.62	7d	1	0.55mi
130 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,835	$1.15	43d	1	0.62mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	113d	1	0.65mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	139d	1	0.68mi
261 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$1,975	$1.07	0d	1	0.68mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,799	$1.20	88d	1	0.76mi
516 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,750	$0.99	10d	1	0.80mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	115d	1	0.81mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	112d	1	0.81mi
604 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,795	$1.03	24d	1	0.82mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	139d	1	0.84mi
712 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$2,000	$1.24	24d	1	0.87mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	139d	1	0.89mi
701 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,650	$1.32	0d	1	0.91mi
583 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1613	$1,850	$1.15	10d	1	0.93mi
409 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1510	$1,800	$1.19	24d	1	0.96mi
603 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,700	$1.36	5d	1	0.96mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	100d	1	1.07mi
273 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1343	$1,700	$1.27	3d	1	1.10mi
744 Xanadu Dr Unit 53K Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1764	$1,750	$0.99	64d	1	1.10mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,795	$1.39	40d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $203,999 Active 220 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   pricedays on market $203,999 Active 219 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $223,999 Active 218 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $223,999 Active 217 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $223,999 Active 216 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $223,999 Active 215 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   pricedays on market $223,999 Active 214 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $226,999 Active 213 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $226,999 Active 212 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $226,999 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $226,999 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $226,999 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $226,999 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $226,999 Active 207 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $226,999 Active 201 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $226,999 Active 200 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    pricedays on market $226,999 Active 199 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $228,999 Active 196 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $228,999 Active 195 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $228,999 Active 194 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $228,999 Active 193 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $228,999 Active 192 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $228,999 Active 191 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $228,999 Active 190 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $228,999 Active 189 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $228,999 Active 188 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $228,999 Active 187 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $228,999 Active 186 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $228,999 Active 185 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $228,999 Active 184 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $228,999 Active 183 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $228,999 Active 182 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $228,999 Active 181 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $228,999 Active 180 DOM
35. 2026-08-15
    price $228,999 Active 179 DOM
36. 2026-08-14
    days on market $231,499 Active 179 DOM
37. 2026-08-13
    days on market $231,499 Active 178 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $231,499 Active 176 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $231,499 Active 175 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $231,499 Active 174 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $231,499 Active 173 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $231,499 Active 171 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $231,499 Active 170 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $231,499 Active 169 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $231,499 Active 168 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $231,499 Active 165 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $231,499 Active 164 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $231,499 Active 163 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    pricedays on market $231,499 Active 162 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    pricedays on market $230,999 Active 160 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,803
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,415
• − Property taxes: −$4,396
• − Insurance: −$1,465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − Depreciation: −$8,525
• Taxable loss: −$11,645
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,795
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,492/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,045–$21,135 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior appearance. It has a spacious floorplan and a well-maintained landscaping. The highest-ROI updates would be painting, landscaping, kitchen and bathroom upgrades, HVAC system, and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can significantly increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and appeal to a wider range of potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $224,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $227,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $230,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $235,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $235,990 Zillow