Kitson Plan · Sonterra, TX 76537

$228,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · SingleFamily · 125 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $228,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $287,656.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $229k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-473 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $219k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,768 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.05%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $287,656
• List price: $228,999
• Delta: -20.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Starpacker Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	1mo	$218,999	$154	84
149 Starpacker Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	0mo	$204,999	$145	83
141 Starpacker Ln	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,418 (+1%)	1mo	$204,999	$145	83
360 Brannigan Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	1mo	$216,999	$154	82
117 Starpacker Ln	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,273 (-10%)	1mo	$201,999	$159	69
129 Morrison Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+12%)	2mo	$252,900	$160	67
505 Yellow Ribbon Trl	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,252 (-11%)	2mo	$279,900	$224	65
116 Starpacker Ln	0.27mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	1mo	$246,999	$154	58
121 Starpacker Ln	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	2mo	$232,999	$145	56
344 Brannigan Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	2mo	$229,990	$143	54
356 Brannigan Dr	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	2mo	$239,990	$149	54
244 Wild Wind Trl	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,599 (+14%)	2mo	$270,000	$169	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-82,327
• Equity at exit: $42,890

10-year hold

• IRR: -57.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.64×
• Total profit: $-132,078
• Equity at exit: $24,871

Cash invested: $80,544 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,918 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,508
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$360 /mo · $4,315/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-473

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,516

Max offer price $219,218

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-274	-5% $-374	+0% $-473	+5% $-572	+10% $-672
Rent	-10% $-624	-5% $-549	+0% $-473	+5% $-397	+10% $-321
Rate	-1.0pp $-328	-0.5pp $-400	base $-473	+0.5pp $-547	+1.0pp $-623

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,914
• Closing costs: $8,630
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	45d	1	0.03mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	0d	1	0.07mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	4d	1	0.09mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	4d	1	0.10mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	9d	1	0.12mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,750	$1.21	0d	1	0.17mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	18d	1	0.26mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	0d	1	0.33mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	19d	1	0.65mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	45d	1	0.68mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,900	$1.27	5d	1	0.76mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	18d	1	0.81mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	21d	1	0.81mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	45d	1	0.84mi
449 Stone Water Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,900	$1.14	45d	1	0.89mi
621 Xanadu Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1586	$1,750	$1.10	6d	1	1.07mi
241 Alcatraz Loop Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,895	$1.47	19d	1	1.12mi
149 Vulcan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,799	$1.24	26d	1	1.22mi
600 Shimek St Unit 19A Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,650	$1.22	19d	1	1.22mi
504 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1612	$1,895	$1.18	19d	1	1.23mi
137 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,695	$1.40	45d	1	1.24mi
508 Wyatt Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	1.24mi
117 Galaxy Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1276	$1,650	$1.29	22d	1	1.24mi
125 Kellys Heroes Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1641	$1,650	$1.01	45d	1	1.25mi
873 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	16d	1	1.27mi
1100 Jackson Ln Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.5	1839	$1,745	$0.95	6d	1	1.30mi
324 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1661	$1,650	$0.99	13d	1	1.31mi
244 Circle Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1242	$1,545	$1.24	22d	1	1.36mi
637 The Ugly Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1688	$1,795	$1.06	45d	1	1.41mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	6d	1	1.44mi
104 Perfect World Loop Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1751	$1,885	$1.08	4d	1	1.44mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	45d	1	1.45mi
340 The Bad Way Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1616	$1,695	$1.05	26d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $228,999 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,999 Active 122 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,999 Active 121 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,999 Active 120 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   price $228,999 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,499 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $228,499 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $227,999 Active 113 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $227,999 Active 112 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $227,999 Active 111 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $227,999 Active 108 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,499 Active 107 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $225,499 Active 106 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $224,999 Active 105 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $224,999 Active 104 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    price $224,999 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

17. 2026-05-10
    price $227,999 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

18. 2026-04-11
    price $230,999 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

19. 2026-03-31
    price $235,999 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

20. 2026-02-16
    listed $235,990 Active 419-char remark

    Show marketing remark (419 chars)

    This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,113
• − Property taxes: −$4,315
• − Insurance: −$1,438
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,841
• − Management: −$1,841
• − Depreciation: −$8,368
• Taxable loss: −$10,904
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,617
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,058/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-level home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior appearance. It has a spacious floorplan and a well-maintained landscaping. The highest-ROI updates would be painting, landscaping, kitchen and bathroom upgrades, HVAC system, and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers.
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can significantly increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and appeal to a wider range of potential buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can significantly increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and appeal to a wider range of potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

Livability — Sonterra

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 680,029 people
• City population: 12,526
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 225.0

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $224,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $227,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $230,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $235,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $235,990 Zillow