Kitson Plan · Jarrell, TX 76537

$209,199

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,409 sqft · SingleFamily · 265 Days on market

Good condition ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining during gatherings. An owner's suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms along the side of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

🏗️ New construction. The $209,199 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $292,301.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $209k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-518 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (9.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#313 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Jarrell ISD (rural): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #713 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Jarrell El (math 19% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,277 of 4,322 statewide, top 77%, 785 students, 62% FRL); Jarrell Middle (math 21% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,258 of 1,662 statewide, top 77%, 741 students, 64% FRL); Jarrell H S (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 868 students, 58% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.7%/yr); 1147 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 69d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 265 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,095 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 265 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.60%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $292,301
• List price: $209,199
• Delta: -28.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Star Packer Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,409 (0%)	2mo	$213,999	$152	82
516 Old Western Pass	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+0%)	2mo	$228,490	$162	80
125 Paradise Canyon Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-7%)	2mo	$269,900	$207	78
101 Captain Dooley Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,305 (-7%)	2mo	$269,900	$207	75
204 Lucky Texan Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,390 (-1%)	0mo	$215,280	$155	74
209 Fighting Seabees Run	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,207 (-14%)	0mo	$209,000	$173	69
133 Captain Dooley Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,580 (+12%)	1mo	$279,900	$177	66
220 Flying Tiger Trl	0.27mi	3/2.5	1,586 (+13%)	0mo	$225,895	$142	64
229 Flying Tigers Trl	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,582 (+12%)	0mo	$191,999	$121	62
280 Feathers St	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,242 (-12%)	1mo	$233,220	$188	56
161 Star Packer Ln	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,607 (+14%)	0mo	$196,999	$123	56
101 Quiet Man Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,592 (+13%)	1mo	$270,000	$170	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -32.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-85,912
• Equity at exit: $43,583

10-year hold

• IRR: -61.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.69×
• Total profit: $-138,723
• Equity at exit: $25,273

Cash invested: $81,844 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 101 active · 64 under contract
• Months of supply: 14.4 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $244,895 ($161/sqft)
• Median days on market: 112 d
• This list price: 18% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +29.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 76537

• Home prices YoY: -14.4%
• Rents YoY: -1.7%
• Active inventory: 1147
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,533
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$365 /mo · $4,385/yr
• Insurance: −$122
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-518

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,557

Max offer price $217,317

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-316	-5% $-417	+0% $-518	+5% $-619	+10% $-720
Rent	-10% $-668	-5% $-593	+0% $-518	+5% $-443	+10% $-368
Rate	-1.0pp $-371	-0.5pp $-444	base $-518	+0.5pp $-594	+1.0pp $-671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,075
• Closing costs: $8,769
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
112 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,800	$1.13	43d	1	0.02mi
112 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1592	$1,800	$1.13	46d	1	0.02mi
120 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1599	$1,775	$1.11	0d	1	0.02mi
121 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1531	$1,800	$1.18	0d	1	0.03mi
105 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1773	$2,055	$1.16	0d	1	0.07mi
104 Fighting Seabees Run Unit NA Jarrell, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,500	$1.67	143d	1	0.09mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$1,830	$0.99	105d	1	0.10mi
313 McLintock Rd Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1855	$2,000	$1.08	143d	1	0.10mi
201 Fighting Seabees Run Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,900	$1.14	148d	1	0.12mi
221 Barbary Coast Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$1,650	$1.14	101d	1	0.17mi
301 Old Stagecoach Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1491	$1,800	$1.21	17d	1	0.18mi
125 Paradise Canyon Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1305	$2,095	$1.61	123d	1	0.20mi
216 The Duke Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1413	$1,700	$1.20	122d	1	0.23mi
108 Captain Dooley Ln Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1076	$2,105	$1.96	24d	1	0.24mi
120 Morrison Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,210	$1.40	157d	1	0.26mi
229 Night Riders Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1638	$1,600	$0.98	69d	1	0.28mi
113 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,500	$1.06	124d	1	0.28mi
137 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	88d	1	0.30mi
149 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	69d	1	0.31mi
153 Star Pass Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,700	$1.20	108d	1	0.31mi
360 Brannigan Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,700	$1.21	138d	1	0.33mi
1109 Paradise Canyon Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1851	$1,800	$0.97	0d	1	0.38mi
204 Robert Hightower Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1676	$1,750	$1.04	41d	1	0.54mi
256 El Dorado Rd Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1017	$1,650	$1.62	28d	1	0.55mi
130 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,835	$1.15	88d	1	0.62mi
128 Quiet Man Dr Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,575	$1.27	34d	1	0.63mi
252 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1243	$1,650	$1.33	158d	1	0.65mi
232 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1875	$1,850	$0.99	10d	1	0.67mi
107 Wild Wind Cv Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1214	$1,700	$1.40	184d	1	0.68mi
261 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1867	$1,775	$0.95	1d	1	0.68mi
261 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1845	$1,900	$1.03	32d	1	0.68mi
120 Batjac Aly Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1592	$1,750	$1.10	3d	1	0.69mi
239 Wild Wind Trl Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1623	$1,875	$1.16	3d	1	0.69mi
154 Hammond Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,799	$1.20	133d	1	0.76mi
516 Taggart Trl Jarrell, TX	4.0	2.0	1761	$1,750	$0.99	10d	1	0.80mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	157d	1	0.81mi
112 Ragnar Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,495	$1.20	160d	1	0.81mi
604 Rusty DR Lot Rusty Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,795	$1.03	69d	1	0.82mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1674	$1,850	$1.11	10d	1	0.84mi
104 Hellfighters Way Jarrell, TX	3.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	184d	1	0.84mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $209,199 Active 265 DOM
2. 2026-11-08
   price $209,199 Active 264 DOM
3. 2026-11-07
   days on market $208,999 Active 264 DOM
4. 2026-11-06
   days on market $208,999 Active 263 DOM
5. 2026-11-05
   days on market $208,999 Active 262 DOM
6. 2026-11-04
   days on market $208,999 Active 261 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $208,999 Active 259 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $208,999 Active 258 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $208,999 Active 257 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    pricedays on market $208,999 Active 256 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $208,499 Active 255 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $208,499 Active 254 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    pricedays on market $208,499 Active 253 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $207,999 Active 252 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $207,999 Active 251 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $207,999 Active 250 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $207,999 Active 249 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $207,999 Active 248 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $207,999 Active 247 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $207,999 Active 246 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $207,999 Active 245 DOM
22. 2026-10-19
    price $207,999 Active 244 DOM
23. 2026-10-18
    days on market $205,999 Active 244 DOM
24. 2026-10-17
    days on market $205,999 Active 243 DOM
25. 2026-10-16
    days on market $205,999 Active 242 DOM
26. 2026-10-15
    days on market $205,999 Active 241 DOM
27. 2026-10-14
    days on market $205,999 Active 240 DOM
28. 2026-10-13
    days on market $205,999 Active 239 DOM
29. 2026-10-12
    days on market $205,999 Active 238 DOM
30. 2026-10-11
    days on market $205,999 Active 237 DOM
31. 2026-10-10
    days on market $205,999 Active 236 DOM
32. 2026-10-09
    days on market $205,999 Active 235 DOM
33. 2026-10-08
    days on market $205,999 Active 234 DOM
34. 2026-10-07
    days on market $205,999 Active 233 DOM
35. 2026-10-06
    days on market $205,999 Active 232 DOM
36. 2026-10-05
    days on market $205,999 Active 231 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $205,999 Active 230 DOM
38. 2026-10-04
    days on market $205,999 Active 229 DOM
39. 2026-10-02
    days on market $205,999 Active 228 DOM
40. 2026-10-01
    days on market $205,999 Active 227 DOM
41. 2026-09-30
    days on market $205,999 Active 226 DOM
42. 2026-09-29
    price $205,999 Active 225 DOM
43. 2026-09-29
    days on market $203,999 Active 225 DOM
44. 2026-09-28
    days on market $203,999 Active 224 DOM
45. 2026-09-27
    days on market $203,999 Active 223 DOM
46. 2026-09-25
    days on market $203,999 Active 221 DOM
47. 2026-09-24
    days on market $203,999 Active 220 DOM
48. 2026-09-23
    pricedays on market $203,999 Active 219 DOM
49. 2026-09-22
    days on market $223,999 Active 218 DOM
50. 2026-09-21
    days on market $223,999 Active 217 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,813
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,373
• − Property taxes: −$4,385
• − Insurance: −$1,462
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$8,503
• Taxable loss: −$11,560
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,774
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,045–$21,135 screening

This single-level home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior appearance. It has a spacious floorplan and a well-maintained landscaping. The highest-ROI updates would be painting, landscaping, kitchen and bathroom upgrades, HVAC system, and smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers or renters. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can make the kitchen more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the bathrooms with modern fixtures — Modern bathrooms can significantly increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A new HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, benefiting both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can enhance convenience and appeal to a wider range of potential buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Jarrell El F TX #3,277/4,322 Nat'l #31,702/41,679 Middle Jarrell Middle F TX #1,258/1,662 Nat'l #10,338/14,009 High Jarrell H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jarrell ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824600
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $57,132
• Composite: 21.47/100
• National rank: #8335
• State rank: #713 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Jarrell

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #313
• US rank: #7020

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamson County · 699,027 people
• City population: 16,272
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,272
• Household income: $98,199
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

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Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 699,027 people
• By 2030: 795,537 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 990,683 · +41.7%
• By 2050: 1,184,292 · +69.4%
• By 2075: 1,623,825 · +132.3%
• By 2100: 1,924,153 · +175.3%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 36% Two or more races 14% Black 7% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30% Puerto Rican 5%
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 26% Chinese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 50.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +10.6pp toward D · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -2.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: D+1.4 2016: R+9.9 2012: R+21.5 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.03%
• Current HPI: 184.8935
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.73%
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $224,999 Zillow
• 2026-05-10 Price Changed $227,999 Zillow
• 2026-04-11 Price Changed $230,999 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $235,999 Zillow
• 2026-02-16 Listed $235,990 Zillow