670 E Alfred Dr #42 · Lake Alfred, FL 33850

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Built 2026 Poor condition $80/sqft · 60% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New Construction Coming Soon to Lake Alfred! This charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 1120 sq. ft. home features a bright open floor plan, a spacious primary suite with ensuite, and a flexible secondary bedroom. Nestled in the heart of Lake Alfred, Florida, you'll enjoy small-town charm with modern convenience. Act fast-buy before delivery and receive 5% off! Call today and talk to our sales agent to make this home yours!

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 124 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $699 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 4.3% in Lake Alfred — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#363 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lake Alfred Elementary School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 821 students, 49% FRL); Jere L. Stambaugh Middle (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,127 students, 65% FRL); Auburndale Senior High School (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #464 of 667 statewide, top 70%, 1,716 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 417 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 111d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 71% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.32%
• DSCR: 2.48
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $225,000
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -60.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2302 Martha Dr	2.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-3%)	2mo	$182,750	$168	53
3804 Corsican Pl	1.97mi	3/2.0	1,231 (+10%)	3mo	$321,900	$261	46
827 Everett St	0.78mi	3/1.5	1,000 (-11%)	2mo	$217,000	$217	44
256 Oleander St	1.68mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+30%)	1mo	$253,500	$175	39
1114 Carefree Cove Dr	2.21mi	3/1.5	1,300 (+16%)	1mo	$170,000	$131	37
235 S Itasca Ave	1.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	912 (-19%)	3mo	$225,000	$247	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $29,967
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.32×
• Total profit: $83,511
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 66.0 mo (2%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $203,000 ($185/sqft)
• Median days on market: 124 d
• This list price: 9% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +8.8% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 33850

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 417
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,671 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$351
• Net cashflow: $699

Break-even live

Break-even rent $786

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $761	-5% $730	+0% $699	+5% $668	+10% $637
Rent	-10% $567	-5% $633	+0% $699	+5% $765	+10% $831
Rate	-1.0pp $744	-0.5pp $722	base $699	+0.5pp $676	+1.0pp $652

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
680 E Grapefruit Ave Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	816	$1,500	$1.84	110d	1	0.43mi
857 Lake Swoope Dr Unit 2 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	1440	$950	$0.66	110d	1	0.47mi
505 Interlock St Lake Alfred, FL	3.0	2.0	1443	$1,789	$1.24	118d	1	0.82mi
160 N Nekoma Ave #1 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	783	$1,100	$1.40	10d	1	0.91mi
150 S Nekoma Ave Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	750	$1,375	$1.83	164d	1	0.91mi
325 W Pierce St Unit 1 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	1.0	800	$1,150	$1.44	143d	1	0.91mi
1666 Ambar Ct Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1312	$1,800	$1.37	10d	1	1.29mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1038 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	935	$1,445	$1.55	130d	1	1.32mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1040 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	935	$1,395	$1.49	10d	1	1.32mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1040 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,475	$1.54	164d	1	1.32mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1036 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,445	$1.51	164d	1	1.32mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1065 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	955	$1,425	$1.49	164d	1	1.32mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr Unit 1060 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	935	$1,475	$1.58	50d	1	1.32mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr #1063 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	935	$1,365	$1.46	10d	1	1.33mi
1040 S Buena Vista Dr #1063 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	935	$1,365	$1.46	25d	1	1.33mi
1901 US Highway 17 92 Lake Alfred, FL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,750	$1.60	55d	1	1.35mi
1228 Haines Dr Winter Haven, FL	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,850	$1.29	155d	1	1.50mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-04-28
• Financial info: List price $89,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and power availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Spec home — Plan: The Palmetto GroveAddress: 670 E Alfred Dr #42, Lake Alfred, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,120

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 total bathrooms

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-23
   days on market $89,900 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-22
   days on market $89,900 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 117 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 115 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 102 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,052
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,604
• − Management: −$1,604
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $7,395
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,775
• After-tax cash flow: $6,611/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $56,000–$100,800 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and improvements to its exterior and landscaping, significantly impacting its value. Immediate action is needed to address the roof, siding, and landscaping issues.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — No visible roof
• Major siding — No visible siding
• Major landscaping — No visible landscaping

Value-add opportunities

• Both roof replacement — Critical to safety and appearance ↑
• Both siding repair/replacement — Improves curb appeal and durability ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances property value and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 32/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Lake Alfred Elementary School F FL #1,403/2,144 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Jere L. Stambaugh Middle F FL #522/571 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Auburndale Senior High School F FL #464/667 Nat'l #11,740/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 72/100

Livability — Lake Alfred

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #363
• US rank: #6406

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Alfred, FL
• County: Polk County · 752,975 people
• City population: 9,757
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 9,757
• Household income: $61,622
• Rent vs Own: 27.2% rent · 72.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 28% of renters

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Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 24% Black 11% Asian 9% Two or more races 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 15% Dominican 2%
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.91%
• Current HPI: 353.941
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: ActiveLast modified: 2026-04-28
• Financial info: List price $89,900

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating and power availableCentral air conditioning
• Home design: Spec home — Plan: The Palmetto GroveAddress: 670 E Alfred Dr #42, Lake Alfred, FL
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,120

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heatingCentral air conditioning
• Interior features: 2 total bathrooms