1976 County Road 5017 · Plum Grove, TX 77327

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured · 60 Days on market

Built 2019 0.44 ac lot $128/sqft · 40% above area Est $143k · 40% over ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming and modern, this manufactured home sits on a level corner lot with a gated entry and gravel drive leading to a 2-car carport. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered front deck. Inside, you will find LVP flooring that runs throughout most of the home; the living room has a vaulted ceiling with wooden beams, recessed lighting, and a ceiling fan. The kitchen features a central island with an electrical outlet, a deep farm sink with backyard views, and modern lighting. The primary suite offers a ceiling fan and plenty of room for a king-sized bed; the primary bath has dual sinks, a soaking tub, a separate shower, and shelving. The secondary bedrooms are cozy with carpet, and the laundry room adds convenience. A stylish, affordable home with thoughtful details—don’t miss it!

Key facts

• Central island
• Gravel drive
• Covered front deck

Tags

• LEVEL CORNER LOT
• GATED ENTRY
• GRAVEL DRIVE
• COVERED FRONT DECK
• LVP FLOORING
• CENTRAL ISLAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $183k (8.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $183k (8.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 5.0% in Plum Grove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,206 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleveland ISD (town): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #723 of 826 in TX (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 1574 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,040 (8.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.94%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,880
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: 39.91%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-20,133
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,556
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 1574
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,830 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,010/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$384
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,623

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1964 Road 5714 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	43d	1	0.98mi
1964 Road 5714 Cleveland, TX	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,575	$1.40	7d	1	0.98mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,900 Active 60 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,900 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,900 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,900 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,900 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-04-19
    listed $199,900 Active 798-char remark

    Show marketing remark (798 chars)

    Charming and modern, this manufactured home sits on a level corner lot with a gated entry and gravel drive leading to a 2-car carport. Enjoy outdoor living on the covered front deck. Inside, you will find LVP flooring that runs throughout most of the home; the living room has a vaulted ceiling with wooden beams, recessed lighting, and a ceiling fan. The kitchen features a central island with an electrical outlet, a deep farm sink with backyard views, and modern lighting. The primary suite offers a ceiling fan and plenty of room for a king-sized bed; the primary bath has dual sinks, a soaking tub, a separate shower, and shelving. The secondary bedrooms are cozy with carpet, and the laundry room adds convenience. A stylish, affordable home with thoughtful details—don’t miss it!

15. 2026-04-13
    historical
16. 2025-10-13
    historical
17. 2025-10-13
    listed $189,900 Active
18. 2025-04-02
    listed $209,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,010 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,658 · $305/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,648/yr (+$221/mo · 262.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,965
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,010
• − Insurance: −$1,797
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,757
• − Management: −$1,757
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$1,369
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$329
• After-tax cash flow: $2,294/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleveland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814370
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,173
• Composite: 20.61/100
• National rank: #8549
• State rank: #723 of 826 in TX

Livability — Plum Grove

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1206
• US rank: #21049

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 82,189 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Listed $209,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+7.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,010 · +0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.