Is 6 Donder Rd in Shelton, WA a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 4.4% cap rate and $-309/mo modeled cash flow at a $199,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 6 Donder Rd?

The modeled cap rate is 4.4% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $1,350/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 44.51

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +10.9/30.0
Condition / age +4.0/5.0
Livability +3.7/5.0
1% rule +3.4/10.0
Schools +3.4/10.0
DSCR +3.0/10.0
Appreciation +2.5/10.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Manufactured-home adj. -3.9

$199,000

6 Donder Rd · Shelton, WA 98584

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1981 Good condition $138/sqft · 44% below area Est $353k · 44% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks

Welcome to Christmas Village, a sought-after 55+ community designed for easy living and an active lifestyle. This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 2-bath home has the updates buyers want, including updated flooring, fresh paint inside and out, real wood cabinets, oversized closets, a walk-in primary closet, and a nearly new roof. Two storage buildings provide extra space for hobbies, tools, gardening, or outdoor gear. Enjoy the freedom of low-maintenance living without giving up comfort, storage, or lifestyle.

Key facts

Fresh paint
Nearly new roof
Oversized closets

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $199k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $154k (22.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $135k (32.2% below list).
Recommended offer: $135k (32.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.6% in Shelton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 73/100 on livability (#203 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, amenities A-; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, crime F.
Shelton School District (town): math 31% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #237 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Market conditions: 689 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 299 units permitted in Mason County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Mason County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
4 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
Current owner paid $160k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,999 (32.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 0.68% ✗
Cap rate: 4.43%
Cash-on-cash: -6.65%
DSCR: 0.70
GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $353,000
List price: $199,000
Delta: -43.63%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5 Dasher Dr	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	16mo	$50,000	$35	82
9 Donder Rd	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	20mo	$140,000	$100	78
12 Christmas Tree Ln	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	12mo	$239,000	$158	77
14 Christmas Tree Ln	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,512 (+5%)	16mo	$200,000	$132	75
3 Blitzen Ln	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-6%)	20mo	$139,999	$104	72
7 Noel Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,404 (-2%)	23mo	$230,000	$164	66
4 Dasher Dr	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	22mo	$90,000	$59	66
2 Blitzen Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,620 (+12%)	10mo	$230,000	$142	64
3 Dasher Dr	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	22mo	$77,500	$62	54
1 Holly Rd	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	23mo	$120,000	$96	50
1310 Northcliff Rd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,400 (-3%)	23mo	$395,000	$282	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -27.8%
Equity multiple: 0.07×
Total profit: $-51,891
Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

IRR: -26.3%
Equity multiple: -0.26×
Total profit: $-70,424
Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 5 active · 2 under contract
Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
Median asking: $199,950 ($137/sqft)
Median days on market: 129 d
This list price: 40% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking: +78.5% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 98584

Active inventory: 689
Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $1,350 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
Tax est. 1.5%: −$249 /mo · $2,985/yr
Insurance: −$83
HOA: −$0
Lot rent leased land?: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,741

Max offer price $154,323

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-171	-5% $-240	+0% $-309	+5% $-378	+10% $-446
Rent	-10% $-415	-5% $-362	+0% $-309	+5% $-255	+10% $-202
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-258	base $-309	+0.5pp $-360	+1.0pp $-413

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $49,750
Closing costs: $5,970
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Calculated building area: 1,440 square feetStructure type: Manufactured houseEnergy source: Electric
Financial info: Listing terms: Cash
HOA & community: Land lease in park: $725Park has 104 homesSenior community designation (verify eligibility)Pets allowed — see remarks

Exterior

Parking: Carport
Utilities: Public water (City of Shelton)Public sewer (City of Shelton)Electric power (PUD3)Cable and internet: XfinityElectric water heater
Home design: Manufactured double-wide homeOne levelUpdated/remodeledMade by GLDN WST, model CALYPSManufactured after 06/15/1976Manufactured home remains in place
Construction: Composition roof
Exterior features: Located in a manufactured home park (Christmas Village) with clubhouse and common areaHigh-speed internet availableBus line nearby

Interior

Kitchen: DishwasherGarbage disposalMicrowaveRefrigeratorStove/RangeTrash compactor
Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
Flooring: Laminate
Bathrooms: 1 full bath1 three-quarter bath1 bathtub2 showers
Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
Interior features: Water heater (electric) located exterior side of house cabinetDouble pane windowsWalk-in closetBath off primaryLandscaped
Laundry & utility: WasherDryer

Listing history 50 events

2026-09-21

days on market $199,000 Active
2026-09-20

days on market $199,000 Active 157 DOM
2026-09-19

days on market $199,000 Active 156 DOM
2026-09-18

days on market $199,000 Active 155 DOM
2026-09-17

days on market $199,000 Active 154 DOM
2026-09-16

days on market $199,000 Active 153 DOM
2026-09-15

days on market $199,000 Active 152 DOM
2026-09-15

price $199,000 Active 151 DOM
2026-09-14

days on market $204,950 Active 151 DOM
2026-09-13

days on market $204,950 Active 150 DOM
2026-09-12

days on market $204,950 Active 149 DOM
2026-09-11

days on market $204,950 Active 148 DOM
2026-09-05

days on market $204,950 Active 142 DOM
2026-09-04

days on market $204,950 Active 141 DOM
2026-09-03

days on market $204,950 Active 140 DOM
2026-09-02

days on market $204,950 Active 139 DOM
2026-08-29

days on market $204,950 Active 135 DOM
2026-08-28

days on market $204,950 Active 134 DOM
2026-08-27

days on market $204,950 Active 133 DOM
2026-08-26

days on market $204,950 Active 132 DOM
2026-08-25

days on market $204,950 Active 131 DOM
2026-08-24

days on market $204,950 Active 130 DOM
2026-08-23

days on market $204,950 Active 129 DOM
2026-08-22

days on market $204,950 Active 128 DOM
2026-08-21

days on market $204,950 Active 127 DOM
2026-08-20

days on market $204,950 Active 126 DOM
2026-08-19

days on market $204,950 Active 125 DOM
2026-08-18

days on market $204,950 Active 124 DOM
2026-08-17

days on market $204,950 Active 123 DOM
2026-08-16

days on market $204,950 Active 122 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $204,950 Active 121 DOM
2026-08-15

days on market $204,950 Active 120 DOM
2026-08-13

days on market $204,950 Active 119 DOM
2026-08-12

days on market $204,950 Active 118 DOM
2026-08-11

days on market $204,950 Active 117 DOM
2026-08-10

days on market $204,950 Active 116 DOM
2026-08-09

days on market $204,950 Active 115 DOM
2026-08-08

days on market $204,950 Active 114 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $204,950 Active 113 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $204,950 Active 112 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $204,950 Active 111 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $204,950 Active 110 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $204,950 Active 109 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $204,950 Active 106 DOM
2026-07-30

pricedays on market $204,950 Active 105 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $209,950 Active 104 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $209,950 Active 102 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $209,950 Active 100 DOM
2026-07-24

days on market $209,950 Active 99 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $209,950 Active 98 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 1/10 Low
🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $16,200
− Mortgage interest: −$11,147
− Property taxes: −$2,985
− Insurance: −$995
− Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
− Management: −$1,296
− Depreciation: −$5,789
Taxable loss: −$7,308

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,754
After-tax cash flow: $-1,951/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $7,200–$21,600 screening

This move-in ready 2-bedroom, 2-bath home in Christmas Village has been updated with new flooring, fresh paint, and modern fixtures, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
Resale Replace window seals — Improves energy efficiency and appearance ↑
Resale Update kitchen backsplash — Modernizes the kitchen and adds value ↑
Resale Update bathroom fixtures — Modernizes the bathroom and adds value ↑
Both Replace flooring — Improves comfort and appearance ↑
Both Update lighting — Enhances ambiance and value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

Zoned Schools

Middle Oakland Bay Junior High School High Shelton High School

Schools (NCES district)

District: Shelton School District
NCES district ID: 5307900
Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income: $45,467
Composite: 34.1/100
National rank: #10288
State rank: #237 of 291 in WA

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Shelton

Score: 73/100
State rank: #203
US rank: #5586

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living A- Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: Shelton, WA
County: Mason County · 60,005 people
City population: 40,606
Metro: Shelton, WA
Population (ZIP): 40,606
Household income: $78,610
Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
Severe rent burden: 6% of renters

Population outlook (Mason County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 60,005 people
By 2030: 58,567 · -2.4%
By 2040: 54,735 · -8.8%
By 2050: 51,470 · -14.2%
By 2075: 46,276 · -22.9%
By 2100: 39,883 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 11% Native American 3%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Mason

2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.2% · R 49.7% · Other 3.2%
2008→2024 swing: -11.2pp toward R · 2008: 8.7pp · 2024: -2.5pp
All cycles: 2024: R+2.5 2020: R+3.9 2016: R+6.0 2012: D+6.9 2008: D+8.7

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -232.42%
Current HPI: 199.0698
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Shelton, WA
State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Retail	2	$269B
#12 Costco Wholesale Issaquah $254.5B #236 Nordstrom Seattle $14.9B
Technology / Retail	1	$638B
#2 Amazon Seattle $638.0B
Technology	1	$245B
#14 Microsoft Redmond $245.1B
Telecommunications	1	$38B
#113 T-Mobile US Bellevue $38.3B
Food / Beverage	1	$36B
#230 Starbucks Seattle $36.2B
Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B
#123 PACCAR Bellevue $33.7B

Price history

+139.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

2026-05-19 Price Changed $209,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2026-04-16 Listed $219,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2023-11-15 Sold (MLS) $160,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2023-10-24 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2023-09-23 Price Changed $165,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2023-09-13 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2023-09-07 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2023-08-22 Listed $169,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2019-07-19 Listed $87,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
2019-07-19 Sold (MLS) $87,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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