13470 Harold Ave · Warren, MI 48089

$120,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 988 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1968 5,663 sqft lot Est $160k · 25% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.4/10.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3 bedroom vinyl sided ranch on dead end street, needs updating and priced accordingly, furnace & C/A 2024, large 22x32 garage built in 1992, sewer drain replaced approximately 2022, stove and refrigerator in garage stays.

Key facts

• Sewer drain replaced
• Large garage
• Vinyl sided ranch

Tags

• VINYL SIDED RANCH
• LARGE GARAGE
• SEWER DRAIN REPLACED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in the Maple Grove subdivision; Zoned residential; Lot dimensions approximately 43 x 138
• HOA & community: Homeowners association present

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Approximately 2.5 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Oven; Range; Gas water heater
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Six total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.7% vs local median 5.3% in Warren — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#171 in MI, #4,491 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, amenities D, employment D.
• Van Dyke Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #512 of 540 in MI (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,321 units permitted in Macomb County in 2024 (86 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Macomb County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.9% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $47k; list at $120k implies a 155% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $118,200 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.17%
• DSCR: 1.54
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $160,056
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13470 Harold Ave	0.00mi	3/1.0	988 (0%)	1mo	$122,000	$123	97
13734 Herbert Ave	0.27mi	3/1.0	966 (-2%)	6mo	$130,000	$135	76
13822 Hovey Ave	0.21mi	3/1.0	975 (-1%)	12mo	$190,000	$195	76
13470 Brainwood Ave	0.06mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,092 (+10%)	8mo	$130,000	$119	68
13696 Mckinley Ave	0.47mi	3/1.0	945 (-4%)	2mo	$165,000	$175	68
25679 Cloie Dr	0.15mi	3/1.5	1,083 (+10%)	12mo	$227,500	$210	67
13812 Brainbridge Ave	0.19mi	3/1.0	914 (-8%)	12mo	$130,000	$142	67
13450 Brainbridge Ave	0.06mi	3/1.0	856 (-13%)	8mo	$123,000	$144	66
13363 Herbert Ave	0.25mi	3/1.0	1,100 (+11%)	9mo	$176,000	$160	60
13699 Mckinley Ave	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,021 (+3%)	9mo	$165,000	$162	57
13610 Gander Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	988 (0%)	11mo	$160,000	$162	56
25226 Roan Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	914 (-8%)	12mo	$209,000	$229	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.94% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $2,190
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $29,575
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48089

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$311
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,048

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13741 McKinley Ave Unit 1032320P Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	839	$5,023	$5.99	1d	1	0.54mi
13006 E 11 Mile Rd Unit 6 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,075	$1.26	14d	1	0.64mi
13006 E 11 Mile Rd Unit 6 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	43d	1	0.64mi
25146 Wagner Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	906	$1,900	$2.10	24d	1	0.67mi
25672 Lira Ln Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	831	$1,250	$1.50	17d	1	0.81mi
25202 Firwood Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,350	$1.23	24d	1	0.89mi
25108 Hoover Rd Warren, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	702	$1,324	$1.88	1d	65	0.96mi
25107 Rosenbusch Blvd Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	903	$1,523	$1.69	14d	1	1.01mi
26160 Regency Club Dr Warren, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$1,998	$1.98	1d	15	1.04mi
11404 Warren Blvd Unit 102 Warren, MI	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	24d	1	1.07mi
27239 Hoover Rd Warren, MI	1.0–2.0	1.0	670	$945	$1.41	43d	1	1.27mi
22852 Sharrow Ave Warren, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	5d	1	1.39mi
25184 Wiseman St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	895	$1,750	$1.96	21d	1	1.41mi
25184 Wiseman St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,750	$1.75	3d	1	1.41mi
26711 Lehner St Roseville, MI	3.0	1.0	960	$1,575	$1.64	24d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   status Pending 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   3 bedroom vinyl sided ranch on dead end street, needs updating and priced accordingly, furnace & C/A 2024, large 22x32 garage built in 1992, sewer drain replaced approximately 2022, stove and refrigerator in garage stays.

3. 2026-04-28
   historical Active Under Contract

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   3 bedroom vinyl sided ranch on dead end street, needs updating and priced accordingly, furnace & C/A 2024, large 22x32 garage built in 1992, sewer drain replaced approximately 2022, stove and refrigerator in garage stays.

4. 2026-04-28
   historical Accepting Backup Offers 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   3 bedroom vinyl sided ranch on dead end street, needs updating and priced accordingly, furnace & C/A 2024, large 22x32 garage built in 1992, sewer drain replaced approximately 2022, stove and refrigerator in garage stays.

5. 2026-04-24
   listed $120,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   3 bedroom vinyl sided ranch on dead end street, needs updating and priced accordingly, furnace & C/A 2024, large 22x32 garage built in 1992, sewer drain replaced approximately 2022, stove and refrigerator in garage stays.

6. 2026-04-24
   listed $120,000 Active 227-char remark

   Show marketing remark (227 chars)

   3 bedroom vinyl sided ranch on dead end street, needs updating and priced accordingly, furnace & C/A 2024, large 22x32 garage built in 1992, sewer drain replaced approximately 2022, stove and refrigerator in garage stays.

7. 1991-11-27
   soldstatus $47,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,785 · $149/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,817 · $151/mo
• Expected delta: +$31/yr (+$3/mo · 1.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,754
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,420
• − Management: −$1,420
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $2,316
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$556
• After-tax cash flow: $3,533/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Van Dyke Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2634680
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $33,231
• Composite: 10.46/100
• National rank: #9784
• State rank: #512 of 540 in MI

Livability — Warren

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #171
• US rank: #4491

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warren, MI
• County: Macomb County · 638,552 people
• City population: 114,937
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 31,853
• Household income: $52,366
• Rent vs Own: 43.4% rent · 56.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1754.0

Population outlook (Macomb County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 925,296 people
• By 2030: 948,226 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 983,961 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 1,010,200 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 1,076,222 · +16.3%
• By 2100: 1,077,065 · +16.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Black 31% Asian 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 3% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Macomb

• 2024 margin: R (+13.7) · D 42.2% · R 55.9% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.3pp toward R · 2008: 8.6pp · 2024: -13.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.7 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+11.6 2012: D+4.0 2008: D+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.46%
• Current HPI: 154.8325
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+155.3% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-19 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-28 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $120,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $120,000 REALCOMP
• 1991-11-27 Sold (Public Records) $47,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,785 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.