1978 E Indian Wells Dr · Gilbert, AZ 85298

$1,125,000

5 bd · 5.0 ba · 3,923 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 138 Days on market

Built 2018 0.29 ac lot $287/sqft · 10% below area Est $1253k · 10% under $240/mo HOA · 6% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Cash flow +2.8/30.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Siingle-level living offering 3,923 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space ideal for a variety of living arrangements. The home features expansive, light-filled living areas with excellent flow for everyday living and entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own walk-in closet, while the fourth bedroom offers a private en-suite--perfect for guests or multigenerational living. A highly sought-after attached casita provides exceptional flexibility with its own living room, bedroom, and full bath, plus plumbing for a future kitchenette. The spacious backyard features a sparkling pool and full-size RV gate. OWNED SOLAR WILL BE PAID OFF AT CLOSE OF ESCROW, PROVIDING VALUABLE ENERGY SAVINGS. Step outside to a spacious backyard complete with a full-size RV gate and sparkling pool. A private oasis versatile, and designed for today's lifestyle.

Key facts

• 0.29 acre lot
• 3 garage spots
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/5.0-bath single-family listed at $1.12M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4k ($-45k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $461k (59.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $402k (64.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $402k (64.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.3% vs local median 3.2% in Gilbert — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 87/100 on livability (#1 in AZ, #240 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Chandler Unified District #80 (4242) (suburban): math 49% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #31 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 329 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($156k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $102k of equity ($8k loan paydown + $94k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$163k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 138 days — a 12% lower offer ($990k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $402,030 (64.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 138 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -14.32%
• DSCR: 0.36
• GRM: 23.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $1,253,437
• List price: $1,125,000
• Delta: -10.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1966 E Indian Wells Dr	0.02mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,762 (-4%)	1mo	$834,000	$222	81
1955 E Blackhawk Dr	0.09mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,876 (-1%)	5mo	$1,225,000	$316	78
7616 S Sorrell Ln	0.24mi	5/3.5	3,893 (-1%)	8mo	$760,000	$195	75
2072 E Blackhawk Ct	0.17mi	4/4.0 (-1)	3,897 (-1%)	11mo	$1,185,000	$304	73
2027 E LA Costa Ct	0.07mi	5/4.5	4,343 (+11%)	5mo	$1,150,000	$265	72
7588 S Peppertree Dr	0.12mi	5/4.5	4,343 (+11%)	4mo	$1,249,000	$288	71
1988 E Blackhawk Dr	0.12mi	4/4.5 (-1)	4,343 (+11%)	2mo	$1,175,000	$271	68
2249 E Galileo Dr	0.37mi	5/3.5	3,623 (-8%)	6mo	$835,000	$230	58
1725 E Everglade Ln	0.35mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,566 (-9%)	5mo	$950,000	$266	53
2199 E Gillcrest Rd	0.38mi	5/3.5	3,512 (-10%)	9mo	$606,000	$173	51
1681 E Brigadier Ct	0.46mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,450 (-12%)	6mo	$1,110,000	$322	43
2492 E Augusta Ave	0.74mi	5/3.5	3,535 (-10%)	6mo	$914,000	$259	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.36% appreciation · 4.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $255,161
• Equity at exit: $882,619

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.95×
• Total profit: $930,619
• Equity at exit: $1,779,315

Cash invested: $315,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85298

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 329
• Price-to-rent: 23.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,020 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$5,900
• Tax from tax record: −$327 /mo · $3,925/yr
• Insurance: −$469
• HOA: −$240
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$844
• Net cashflow: $-3,759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,779

Max offer price $460,884

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $281,250
• Closing costs: $33,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1949 E Bellflower Ct Gilbert, AZ	4.0	4.5	4345	$4,400	$1.01	44d	1	0.13mi
7657 S Debra Dr Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.5	3512	$3,700	$1.05	1d	1	0.41mi
2220 E Flintlock Dr Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2643	$2,950	$1.12	24d	1	0.44mi
2756 E Hickory St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	3.0	2873	$2,995	$1.04	22d	1	0.97mi
2756 E Hickory St Gilbert, AZ	4.0	2.5	2873	$2,995	$1.04	24d	1	0.97mi
3010 E Augusta Ave Gilbert, AZ	5.0	3.5	2938	$3,795	$1.29	44d	1	1.34mi
6907 S Emerald Pl Chandler, AZ	5.0	4.0	3803	$3,295	$0.87	15d	1	1.47mi
6907 S Emerald Pl Chandler, AZ	5.0	4.0	3803	$2,995	$0.79	18d	1	1.47mi
4078 E Peach Tree Dr Chandler, AZ	4.0	2.5	3204	$2,795	$0.87	15d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $240 · $2,880/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 138 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 137 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,125,000 Active 133 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $1,125,000 Active 132 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,130,000 Active 129 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,130,000 Active 128 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,130,000 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,130,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,130,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,130,000 Active 122 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,130,000 Active 121 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,130,000 Active 120 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $1,130,000 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    Siingle-level living offering 3,923 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space ideal for a variety of living arrangements. The home features expansive, light-filled living areas with excellent flow for everyday living and entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own walk-in closet, while the fourth bedroom offers a private en-suite--perfect for guests or multigenerational living. A highly sought-after attached casita provides exceptional flexibility with its own living room, bedroom, and full bath, plus plumbing for a future kitchenette. The spacious backyard features a sparkling pool and full-size RV gate. OWNED SOLAR WILL BE PAID OFF AT CLOSE OF ESCROW, PROVIDING VALUABLE ENERGY SAVINGS. Step outside to a spacious backyard complete with a full-size RV gate and sparkling pool. A private oasis versatile, and designed for today's lifestyle.

16. 2026-04-20
    price $1,140,000 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    Siingle-level living offering 3,923 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space ideal for a variety of living arrangements. The home features expansive, light-filled living areas with excellent flow for everyday living and entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own walk-in closet, while the fourth bedroom offers a private en-suite--perfect for guests or multigenerational living. A highly sought-after attached casita provides exceptional flexibility with its own living room, bedroom, and full bath, plus plumbing for a future kitchenette. The spacious backyard features a sparkling pool and full-size RV gate. OWNED SOLAR WILL BE PAID OFF AT CLOSE OF ESCROW, PROVIDING VALUABLE ENERGY SAVINGS. Step outside to a spacious backyard complete with a full-size RV gate and sparkling pool. A private oasis versatile, and designed for today's lifestyle.

17. 2026-04-01
    price $1,160,000 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    Siingle-level living offering 3,923 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space ideal for a variety of living arrangements. The home features expansive, light-filled living areas with excellent flow for everyday living and entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own walk-in closet, while the fourth bedroom offers a private en-suite--perfect for guests or multigenerational living. A highly sought-after attached casita provides exceptional flexibility with its own living room, bedroom, and full bath, plus plumbing for a future kitchenette. The spacious backyard features a sparkling pool and full-size RV gate. OWNED SOLAR WILL BE PAID OFF AT CLOSE OF ESCROW, PROVIDING VALUABLE ENERGY SAVINGS. Step outside to a spacious backyard complete with a full-size RV gate and sparkling pool. A private oasis versatile, and designed for today's lifestyle.

18. 2026-03-23
    price $1,170,000 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    Siingle-level living offering 3,923 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space ideal for a variety of living arrangements. The home features expansive, light-filled living areas with excellent flow for everyday living and entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own walk-in closet, while the fourth bedroom offers a private en-suite--perfect for guests or multigenerational living. A highly sought-after attached casita provides exceptional flexibility with its own living room, bedroom, and full bath, plus plumbing for a future kitchenette. The spacious backyard features a sparkling pool and full-size RV gate. OWNED SOLAR WILL BE PAID OFF AT CLOSE OF ESCROW, PROVIDING VALUABLE ENERGY SAVINGS. Step outside to a spacious backyard complete with a full-size RV gate and sparkling pool. A private oasis versatile, and designed for today's lifestyle.

19. 2026-02-28
    price $1,190,000 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    Siingle-level living offering 3,923 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space ideal for a variety of living arrangements. The home features expansive, light-filled living areas with excellent flow for everyday living and entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own walk-in closet, while the fourth bedroom offers a private en-suite--perfect for guests or multigenerational living. A highly sought-after attached casita provides exceptional flexibility with its own living room, bedroom, and full bath, plus plumbing for a future kitchenette. The spacious backyard features a sparkling pool and full-size RV gate. OWNED SOLAR WILL BE PAID OFF AT CLOSE OF ESCROW, PROVIDING VALUABLE ENERGY SAVINGS. Step outside to a spacious backyard complete with a full-size RV gate and sparkling pool. A private oasis versatile, and designed for today's lifestyle.

20. 2026-02-28
    price $11,900,000 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    Siingle-level living offering 3,923 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space ideal for a variety of living arrangements. The home features expansive, light-filled living areas with excellent flow for everyday living and entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own walk-in closet, while the fourth bedroom offers a private en-suite--perfect for guests or multigenerational living. A highly sought-after attached casita provides exceptional flexibility with its own living room, bedroom, and full bath, plus plumbing for a future kitchenette. The spacious backyard features a sparkling pool and full-size RV gate. OWNED SOLAR WILL BE PAID OFF AT CLOSE OF ESCROW, PROVIDING VALUABLE ENERGY SAVINGS. Step outside to a spacious backyard complete with a full-size RV gate and sparkling pool. A private oasis versatile, and designed for today's lifestyle.

21. 2026-01-31
    listed $1,200,000 Active 845-char remark

    Show marketing remark (845 chars)

    Siingle-level living offering 3,923 sq ft of thoughtfully designed space ideal for a variety of living arrangements. The home features expansive, light-filled living areas with excellent flow for everyday living and entertaining. Each bedroom includes its own walk-in closet, while the fourth bedroom offers a private en-suite--perfect for guests or multigenerational living. A highly sought-after attached casita provides exceptional flexibility with its own living room, bedroom, and full bath, plus plumbing for a future kitchenette. The spacious backyard features a sparkling pool and full-size RV gate. OWNED SOLAR WILL BE PAID OFF AT CLOSE OF ESCROW, PROVIDING VALUABLE ENERGY SAVINGS. Step outside to a spacious backyard complete with a full-size RV gate and sparkling pool. A private oasis versatile, and designed for today's lifestyle.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,925 · $327/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,425 · $619/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,500/yr (+$292/mo · 89.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥112°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,244
• − Mortgage interest: −$63,017
• − Property taxes: −$3,925
• − Insurance: −$5,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,859
• − Management: −$3,859
• − HOA: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$32,727
• Taxable loss: −$67,650
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$16,236
• After-tax cash flow: $-28,877/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chandler Unified District #80 (4242)
• NCES district ID: 0401870
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,048
• Composite: 47.54/100
• National rank: #2268
• State rank: #31 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Gilbert

• Score: 87/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gilbert, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 281,769
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 44,114
• Household income: $156,425
• Rent vs Own: 8.9% rent · 91.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 173.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Asian 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.36%
• Current HPI: 343.6932
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.31%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $1,130,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-20 Price Changed $1,140,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $1,160,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $1,170,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $1,190,000 ARMLS
• 2026-02-28 Price Changed $11,900,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-31 Listed $1,200,000 ARMLS

Property tax history

+36.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,925 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.