125 Azalea Ct · Carlisle, KY 40311

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 997 sqft · Other · 4 Days on market

Built 1990 0.38 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A frame home with 3 bedrooms, 1 full bath, situated on a wooded lot in Carnico. Lake access with boat ramp and beach. Great get away or full time living.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• Large deck
• 0.38 acre lot

Tags

• COVERED PORCH
• LARGE DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.35 acre (16,702 sq ft)

Exterior

• Utilities: Sewer: Other
• Home design: One and one-half story home
• Construction: Wood siding exterior; Block foundation; Approximately 997 total building area
• Exterior features: Public water; Not on waterfront

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms (includes bedrooms and other rooms)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Carpet and vinyl flooring; Fireplace not present

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-78 ($-936/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $111k (11.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $90k (28.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $90k (28.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.5% in Carlisle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#349 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Nicholas County (rural): math 22% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #132 of 165 in KY (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Nicholas County Elementary School (math 22% / reading 29%, grade F, #477 of 676 statewide, top 71%, 664 students, 71% FRL); Nicholas County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 455 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 50% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 51 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Nicholas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nicholas County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $89,610 (28.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.54%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.67%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $63,078
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $189,591
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40311

• Home prices YoY: 6.3%
• Active inventory: 51
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $896 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $940/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$188
• Net cashflow: $-78

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $111,226

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-7	-5% $-43	+0% $-78	+5% $-113	+10% $-149
Rent	-10% $-149	-5% $-113	+0% $-78	+5% $-43	+10% $-7
Rate	-1.0pp $-15	-0.5pp $-46	base $-78	+0.5pp $-110	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $125,000 Active 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   remarks 198-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $940 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,075 · $90/mo
• Expected delta: +$135/yr (+$11/mo · 14.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,753
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$940
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$860
• − Management: −$860
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$3,170
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$761
• After-tax cash flow: $-175/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nicholas County
• NCES district ID: 2104470
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $39,178
• Composite: 22.65/100
• National rank: #8056
• State rank: #132 of 165 in KY

Livability — Carlisle

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #16526

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,676

Population outlook (Nicholas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,953 people
• By 2030: 6,815 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 6,489 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 6,119 · -12.0%
• By 2075: 5,449 · -21.6%
• By 2100: 4,901 · -29.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nicholas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.0) · D 24.8% · R 73.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.2pp · 2024: -49.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.0 2020: R+42.8 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+24.6 2008: R+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.72%
• Current HPI: 282.0093
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+38.9% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $125,000 ImagineMLS
• 2017-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2017-11-16 Sold (MLS) $95,000 ImagineMLS
• 2017-11-09 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2017-10-03 Listing Removed — NKMLS
• 2017-09-13 Price Changed $95,000 ImagineMLS
• 2017-07-12 Price Changed $99,900 ImagineMLS
• 2017-04-03 Listed $107,500 ImagineMLS
• 2017-04-03 Listed $95,000 NKMLS
• 2016-09-28 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2016-09-17 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2016-09-17 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2016-07-18 Price Changed $107,000 ImagineMLS
• 2016-05-10 Price Changed $110,900 ImagineMLS
• 2016-03-23 Listed $115,900 ImagineMLS
• 2004-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $940 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.