424 Sandgate Dr · Beaver Dam Lake, NY 12553

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 56 Days on market

Built 2004 Good condition $92/sqft · 15% above area Est $78k · 15% over $1000/mo HOA · 37% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home located in desirable Windemere Estates, set on a level lot and offering close to 1,000 square feet of comfortable living space. This well-maintained home features an open floor plan connecting the kitchen, dining, and living areas, along with 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, and a 2-car driveway. The kitchen offers beautiful cabinetry with abundant cabinet and counter space. Additional features include central air, updated flooring, a bathroom vanity, microwave, and 5-burner gas stove, plus an updated water heater. The home also includes a laundry area with washer and dryer, updated front and storm doors, new blinds, and routinely maintained mechanicals. Conveniently located just 60

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Laundry area
• Updated water heater

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CENTRAL AIR
• UPDATED FLOORING
• ABUNDANT CABINET SPACE
• LAUNDRY AREA
• UPDATED WATER HEATER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 980 (source: Other)
• HOA & community: Windemere Estates association; Monthly association fee of $1,000; Community park

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Electric service by Central Hudson; Propane available/connected; Water connected; Sewer connected; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Manufactured home (single wide); One-story (single level); Actual property condition
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Level lot; Near public transit; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas/Propane range (propane heating present)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (one-level home, total 6 rooms)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Propane fuel
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; High ceilings; Deck
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $534 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.4% vs local median 1.7% in Beaver Dam Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#413 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Cornwall Central School District (suburban): math 66% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #133 of 590 in NY (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Cornwall Elementary School (math 72% / reading 82%, grade A, #244 of 2,108 statewide, top 13%, 567 students, 20% FRL); Cornwall Middle School (math 52% / reading 62%, grade B, #192 of 729 statewide, top 28%, 895 students, 22% FRL); Cornwall Central High School (math 96% / reading 90%, grade A+, #147 of 1,100 statewide, top 14%, 1,027 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 169 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 37% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,203 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.47%
• DSCR: 2.13
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $77,900
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: 15.40%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
409 Sandgate Dr	0.05mi	3/1.5	980 (0%)	6mo	$20,000	$20	91
204 Thelbridge Dr	0.04mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (0%)	13mo	$80,000	$82	82
319 Currycross	0.03mi	2/1.0 (-1)	980 (0%)	8mo	$75,000	$77	82
507 Watch Hill Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (0%)	16mo	$65,000	$66	81

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $20,120
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.54×
• Total profit: $64,006
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12553

• Home prices YoY: -31.7%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,729 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$112 /mo · $1,348/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$1,000
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$573
• Net cashflow: $534

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,052

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $596	-5% $565	+0% $534	+5% $503	+10% $472
Rent	-10% $319	-5% $427	+0% $534	+5% $642	+10% $750
Rate	-1.0pp $580	-0.5pp $557	base $534	+0.5pp $511	+1.0pp $487

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $1,000 · $12,000/yr
• Likely covers: watergas

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 48 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $89,900 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 39 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 38 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 37 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    status Active 894-char remark
16. 2026-04-23
    listed $89,900 Active 894-char remark
17. 2024-02-03
    historical
18. 2020-08-19
    listed $69,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,744
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$1,348
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,619
• − Management: −$2,619
• − HOA: −$12,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $6,056
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,453
• After-tax cash flow: $4,959/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained mobile home offers a good condition with minor repairs needed in the kitchen and bathroom. A fresh coat of paint and updated fixtures would significantly enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Kitchen cabinets — Worn appearance
• Minor Bathtub and shower curtain — Dirty appearance

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics
• Both Replace bathtub and shower curtain — Clean and updated fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen cabinets · Worn appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Bathtub and shower curtain · Dirty appearance	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$1,000–6,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace kitchen cabinets — New cabinets improve functionality and aesthetics ↑
• Both Replace bathtub and shower curtain — Clean and updated fixtures improve functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cornwall Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608430
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $88,331
• Composite: 60.96/100
• National rank: #805
• State rank: #133 of 590 in NY

Livability — Beaver Dam Lake

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #413
• US rank: #7183

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 27,384
• Household income: $92,757
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 960.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 14% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -145.96%
• Current HPI: 314.8506
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+28.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Listed $89,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-03 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-19 Listed $69,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid