4141 Deep Creek Rd #84 · Fremont, CA 94555

$200,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured · 101 Days on market

Built 1973 $144/sqft · 7% below area Est $215k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +7.3/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated in a desirable cul-de-sac location. This property features a spacious living room with new carpet and a comfortable layout that includes both a separate living room and family room, offering plenty of space for relaxing or entertaining. The dining area includes a built-in hutch for added storage. The kitchen area flows conveniently into the family room, creating a functional living space. Indoor laundry adds everyday convenience. The guest bathroom offers a single sink vanity and stall shower. The spacious primary bedroom features a primary bathroom with double sinks and a tub/shower combination. Enjoy outdoor living with both a porch and enclosed porch, providing additional space for relaxing year-round. A storage shed offers extra room for tools and belongings. Located in a quiet cul-de-sac setting, this home combines comfort, functionality, and a great location.

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac location
• Porch
• Storage shed

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOCATION
• BUILT-IN HUTCH
• INDOOR LAUNDRY
• PORCH
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.0% vs local median 1.2% in Fremont — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#10 in CA, #561 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Fremont Unified (suburban): math 76% / reading 84% proficiency, ranked #23 of 517 in CA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 76 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,742 units permitted in Alameda County in 2024 (856 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alameda County population projected at +34% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 101 days — a 9% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 29y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $200k implies a 264% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $182,000 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 101 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.80% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.24%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,325
• List price: $200,000
• Delta: 6.77%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4141 Deepcreek #106	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	9mo	$130,000	$90	86
269 Oahu	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	1mo	$285,000	$198	66
324 Waikiki Cir	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	3mo	$165,000	$115	65
259 Molokai Cir #259	0.64mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	0mo	$180,000	$134	64
328 Waikiki Cir	0.60mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	3mo	$215,000	$160	64
418 Fiji Cir #418	0.66mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	2mo	$313,333	$233	62
179 Kona Cir	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	1mo	$260,000	$193	60
51 Palm Dr	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	9mo	$225,000	$156	58
167 Kona Cir	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+3%)	7mo	$247,000	$172	55
243 Jamaica Cir	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	11mo	$216,000	$161	54
226 Hula Cir	0.70mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	10mo	$205,000	$153	53
198 Hawaii Cir	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,464 (+5%)	10mo	$185,000	$126	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $61,258
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.15×
• Total profit: $176,260
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94555

• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 76
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,595 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$755
• Net cashflow: $1,458

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,596	-5% $1,527	+0% $1,458	+5% $1,389	+10% $1,320
Rent	-10% $1,174	-5% $1,316	+0% $1,458	+5% $1,600	+10% $1,742
Rate	-1.0pp $1,559	-0.5pp $1,509	base $1,458	+0.5pp $1,406	+1.0pp $1,353

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3842 Cardinal Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1607	$4,100	$2.55	19d	1	0.33mi
33877 Raven Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.5	1315	$3,700	$2.81	16d	1	0.40mi
34077 Paseo Padre Pkwy Fremont, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	788	$2,887	$3.66	0d	12	0.80mi
4806 Balthazar Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.0	1755	$4,250	$2.42	0d	1	0.82mi
4123 Asimuth Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1280	$3,350	$2.62	45d	1	0.83mi
4292 Comet Cir Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1250	$2,950	$2.36	25d	1	0.88mi
5016 Paseo Padre Pkwy Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$3,150	$4.38	3d	10	0.91mi
4132 Jamaica Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	1.5	1166	$2,890	$2.48	0d	1	0.94mi
34426 Bentley Pl Fremont, CA	3.0	2.0	1290	$3,500	$2.71	21d	1	0.96mi
32468 Deborah Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1340	$3,949	$2.95	25d	1	1.10mi
2262 Eric Ct #4 Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1003	$3,400	$3.39	5d	1	1.12mi
4910 Lowry Rd Union City, CA	3.0	1.5	1129	$3,500	$3.10	45d	1	1.19mi
33411 Madelyn Ter Union City, CA	2.0	2.5	1441	$3,798	$2.64	19d	1	1.21mi
34573 Falls Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	0d	1	1.24mi
34573 Falls Ter Fremont, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$3,000	$3.00	13d	1	1.24mi
34141 Gannon Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	2.5	1324	$4,000	$3.02	0d	1	1.27mi
4739 Louise Ln Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1320	$4,000	$3.03	45d	1	1.27mi
34132 Spezia Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1481	$3,900	$2.63	19d	1	1.32mi
34130 Lugano Ter Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1701	$3,800	$2.23	45d	1	1.40mi
2449 Almaden Blvd Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1565	$4,495	$2.87	3d	1	1.40mi
3307 San Marco Ct Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1349	$3,900	$2.89	4d	1	1.41mi
5764 Via Lugano Fremont, CA	3.0	3.5	1617	$4,100	$2.54	3d	1	1.47mi
4402 Queen Anne Dr Union City, CA	3.0	2.0	1357	$4,200	$3.10	3d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-21
   pricedays on market $200,000 Active 101 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $229,900 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $229,900 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $229,900 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $229,900 Active 95 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $229,900 Active 92 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $229,900 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $229,900 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,900 Active 87 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $229,900 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $229,900 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,900 Active 82 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,900 Active 81 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,900 Active 80 DOM
16. 2026-04-23
    price $229,900 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated in a desirable cul-de-sac location. This property features a spacious living room with new carpet and a comfortable layout that includes both a separate living room and family room, offering plenty of space for relaxing or entertaining. The dining area includes a built-in hutch for added storage. The kitchen area flows conveniently into the family room, creating a functional living space. Indoor laundry adds everyday convenience. The guest bathroom offers a single sink vanity and stall shower. The spacious primary bedroom features a primary bathroom with double sinks and a tub/shower combination. Enjoy outdoor living with both a porch and enclosed porch, providing additional space for relaxing year-round. A storage shed offers extra room for tools and belongings. Located in a quiet cul-de-sac setting, this home combines comfort, functionality, and a great location.

17. 2026-03-12
    listed $239,900 Active 909-char remark

    Show marketing remark (909 chars)

    2-bedroom, 2-bath home situated in a desirable cul-de-sac location. This property features a spacious living room with new carpet and a comfortable layout that includes both a separate living room and family room, offering plenty of space for relaxing or entertaining. The dining area includes a built-in hutch for added storage. The kitchen area flows conveniently into the family room, creating a functional living space. Indoor laundry adds everyday convenience. The guest bathroom offers a single sink vanity and stall shower. The spacious primary bedroom features a primary bathroom with double sinks and a tub/shower combination. Enjoy outdoor living with both a porch and enclosed porch, providing additional space for relaxing year-round. A storage shed offers extra room for tools and belongings. Located in a quiet cul-de-sac setting, this home combines comfort, functionality, and a great location.

18. 1997-10-03
    soldstatus $55,000
19. 1997-10-03
    soldstatus $55,000
20. 1997-09-14
    historical
21. 1997-08-29
    listed $55,000
22. 1997-08-29
    listed $55,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 12 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,451
• − Management: −$3,451
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $15,216
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,652
• After-tax cash flow: $13,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fremont Unified
• NCES district ID: 0614400
• Math proficiency: 76% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 84% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $105,489
• Composite: 72.94/100
• National rank: #191
• State rank: #23 of 517 in CA

Livability — Fremont

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #561

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fremont, CA
• County: Alameda County · 1,614,355 people
• City population: 228,297
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,501
• Household income: $219,938
• Rent vs Own: 29.0% rent · 71.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 583.0

Population outlook (Alameda County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,928,884 people
• By 2030: 2,069,146 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 2,338,405 · +21.2%
• By 2050: 2,586,608 · +34.1%
• By 2075: 3,061,911 · +58.7%
• By 2100: 3,234,133 · +67.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Asian (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: Asian 73% White 13% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Armenian 1% Russian 1%
• Foreign-born: 53% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 33% English-only · Chinese 19% Other Indo-European 18% Other Asian/Pacific 15%

Political lean MEDSL · Alameda

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 74.6% · R 21.0% · Other 4.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.9pp toward R · 2008: 59.5pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+62.5 2016: D+64.4 2012: D+59.8 2008: D+59.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1033.77%
• Current HPI: 366.987
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• Metro: San Francisco-Oakland-Berkeley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+318.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $229,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $239,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-10-03 Sold (MLS) $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-10-03 Sold (MLS) $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-09-14 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-08-29 Listed $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1997-08-29 Listed $55,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR