883 Chapmans Ford Rd · Emporia, VA 23847

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,159 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1952 3.36 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Don't Let This One Slip Away! Country Living at its Best! Solid brick Home, Investors Special, Great Rental or Renovate to resale! Also, includes adjoining buildable corner lot 2.53 acres ID: 19-22H assessed value $18,000. Home assessed at $118,200 ID: 19-231 . 83 acres. This home has 4 bedrooms , two upstairs and 2 down. 1 full bath downstairs, propane gas heat, Honeywell alarm system, new PVC plumbing, well and septic (pumped 2008). Livingroom and eat in kitchen, Florida room addition off the back of house. Refrigerator, dishwasher, double ceramic sink with Formica counter top , gas stove , laundry room and linen room. Additional lot house can be built with either a conventional perk at t

Key facts

• Double ceramic sink
• Gas stove
• New pvc plumbing

Tags

• SOLID BRICK HOME
• ADJOINING BUILDABLE CORNER LOT
• NEW PVC PLUMBING
• FLORIDA ROOM ADDITION
• DOUBLE CERAMIC SINK
• GAS STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $117k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.3% in Emporia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#370 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F, amenities F.
• Greensville County Public School District (town): math 36% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #114 of 131 in VA (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Greensville County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greensville County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($117k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 51% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,215 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.16%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,365
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.65×
• Total profit: $21,770
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23847

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,273 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $604/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $916

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2025-12-07
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-19
   listed $119,000 Active
3. 2019-02-28
   historical
4. 2018-08-09
   listed $99,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $604 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $976 · $81/mo
• Expected delta: +$372/yr (+$31/mo · 61.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 51% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,280
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$604
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,222
• − Management: −$1,222
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,509
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$362
• After-tax cash flow: $3,022/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greensville County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5101740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -33.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,668
• Composite: 37.27/100
• National rank: #4454
• State rank: #114 of 131 in VA

Livability — Emporia

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #370
• US rank: #14846

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,346

Population outlook (Greensville County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,295 people
• By 2030: 11,065 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 10,929 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 10,825 · -4.2%
• By 2075: 9,457 · -16.3%
• By 2100: 7,536 · -33.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 62% White 27% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Greensville

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.3) · D 54.3% · R 45.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.2pp toward R · 2008: 28.5pp · 2024: 9.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.3 2020: D+15.6 2016: D+18.8 2012: D+27.8 2008: D+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.80%
• Current HPI: 165.052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+20.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-07 Pending — CVRMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listed $119,000 CVRMLS
• 2019-02-28 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2018-08-09 Listed $99,000 CVRMLS

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $604 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.