319 Oriole Dr · North Middleton, PA 17013

$174,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,600 sqft · Manufactured · 953 Days on market

Built 2023 Good condition ↓ 33% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

If you're looking for a 55+ community that features everything you need for a simple, efficient, and active lifestyle, Pine Manor is a top choice. Pine Manor is the recipient of the 2016 Land-Lease Community of the Year awarded by the Manufactured Housing Institute, for offering highest standard 3 bed 2 bath brand new single-family homes. Our homes are equipped with wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliance packages, open concept floor plans, and optional attached garages! Plus, the amenities don't stop there. Our residents also enjoy a clubhouse, fitness center, and scenic gazebo on site. Pine Manor is an ideal destination for its energy-saving homes and warm community atmosphere, located close to everything you need to live a fun and convenient lifestyle. Immerse yourself in nature offered by Fuller Lake and other area parks, or dive into fun at the nearby Penn National Racetrack. Residents at Pine Manor are a short day trip away from Philadelphia and Washington, D. C. , and just minutes away from downtown Carlisle for convenient restaurants and shopping. If you're ready for a home that checks everything off on your list, Pine Manor is the answer. Contact us today!

Key facts

• Built 2023
• Listed 953 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $293 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $154k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Carlisle Area SD (urban): math 33% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #277 of 539 in PA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 308 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,052 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (310 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cumberland County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 953 days — a 12% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 953 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.17%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-10,541
• Equity at exit: $26,078

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $11,390
• Equity at exit: $15,122

Cash invested: $48,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17013

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 308
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$917
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,624/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $293

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,530

Max offer price $174,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,725
• Closing costs: $5,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
130 Imperial Ct Carlisle, PA	3.0	2.0	1137	$1,650	$1.45	44d	1	0.18mi
10 Heather Dr Carlisle, PA	4.0	2.5	1625	$2,200	$1.35	21d	1	0.22mi
1838 Mary Ln Carlisle, PA	3.0	1.5	1523	$800	$0.53	14d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,900 Active 953 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,900 Active 952 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,900 Active 951 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,900 Active 950 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $174,900 Active 948 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,900 Active 945 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,900 Active 944 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,900 Active 943 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,900 Active 942 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,900 Active 938 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,900 Active 937 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $174,900 Active 936 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 935 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,900 Active 934 DOM
15. 2025-11-08
    price $174,900 1189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1189 chars)

    If you're looking for a 55+ community that features everything you need for a simple, efficient, and active lifestyle, Pine Manor is a top choice. Pine Manor is the recipient of the 2016 Land-Lease Community of the Year awarded by the Manufactured Housing Institute, for offering highest standard 3 bed 2 bath brand new single-family homes. Our homes are equipped with wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliance packages, open concept floor plans, and optional attached garages! Plus, the amenities don't stop there. Our residents also enjoy a clubhouse, fitness center, and scenic gazebo on site. Pine Manor is an ideal destination for its energy-saving homes and warm community atmosphere, located close to everything you need to live a fun and convenient lifestyle. Immerse yourself in nature offered by Fuller Lake and other area parks, or dive into fun at the nearby Penn National Racetrack. Residents at Pine Manor are a short day trip away from Philadelphia and Washington, D. C. , and just minutes away from downtown Carlisle for convenient restaurants and shopping. If you're ready for a home that checks everything off on your list, Pine Manor is the answer. Contact us today!

16. 2024-12-21
    price $199,900 1189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1189 chars)

    If you're looking for a 55+ community that features everything you need for a simple, efficient, and active lifestyle, Pine Manor is a top choice. Pine Manor is the recipient of the 2016 Land-Lease Community of the Year awarded by the Manufactured Housing Institute, for offering highest standard 3 bed 2 bath brand new single-family homes. Our homes are equipped with wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliance packages, open concept floor plans, and optional attached garages! Plus, the amenities don't stop there. Our residents also enjoy a clubhouse, fitness center, and scenic gazebo on site. Pine Manor is an ideal destination for its energy-saving homes and warm community atmosphere, located close to everything you need to live a fun and convenient lifestyle. Immerse yourself in nature offered by Fuller Lake and other area parks, or dive into fun at the nearby Penn National Racetrack. Residents at Pine Manor are a short day trip away from Philadelphia and Washington, D. C. , and just minutes away from downtown Carlisle for convenient restaurants and shopping. If you're ready for a home that checks everything off on your list, Pine Manor is the answer. Contact us today!

17. 2024-10-17
    price $214,900 1189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1189 chars)

    If you're looking for a 55+ community that features everything you need for a simple, efficient, and active lifestyle, Pine Manor is a top choice. Pine Manor is the recipient of the 2016 Land-Lease Community of the Year awarded by the Manufactured Housing Institute, for offering highest standard 3 bed 2 bath brand new single-family homes. Our homes are equipped with wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliance packages, open concept floor plans, and optional attached garages! Plus, the amenities don't stop there. Our residents also enjoy a clubhouse, fitness center, and scenic gazebo on site. Pine Manor is an ideal destination for its energy-saving homes and warm community atmosphere, located close to everything you need to live a fun and convenient lifestyle. Immerse yourself in nature offered by Fuller Lake and other area parks, or dive into fun at the nearby Penn National Racetrack. Residents at Pine Manor are a short day trip away from Philadelphia and Washington, D. C. , and just minutes away from downtown Carlisle for convenient restaurants and shopping. If you're ready for a home that checks everything off on your list, Pine Manor is the answer. Contact us today!

18. 2023-11-08
    listed $259,500 Active 1189-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1189 chars)

    If you're looking for a 55+ community that features everything you need for a simple, efficient, and active lifestyle, Pine Manor is a top choice. Pine Manor is the recipient of the 2016 Land-Lease Community of the Year awarded by the Manufactured Housing Institute, for offering highest standard 3 bed 2 bath brand new single-family homes. Our homes are equipped with wood kitchen cabinets, full kitchen appliance packages, open concept floor plans, and optional attached garages! Plus, the amenities don't stop there. Our residents also enjoy a clubhouse, fitness center, and scenic gazebo on site. Pine Manor is an ideal destination for its energy-saving homes and warm community atmosphere, located close to everything you need to live a fun and convenient lifestyle. Immerse yourself in nature offered by Fuller Lake and other area parks, or dive into fun at the nearby Penn National Racetrack. Residents at Pine Manor are a short day trip away from Philadelphia and Washington, D. C. , and just minutes away from downtown Carlisle for convenient restaurants and shopping. If you're ready for a home that checks everything off on your list, Pine Manor is the answer. Contact us today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,807
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,797
• − Property taxes: −$2,624
• − Insurance: −$874
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$5,088
• Taxable income: $775
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$186
• After-tax cash flow: $3,327/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. A fresh coat of paint and some landscaping would significantly enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value
• Both replace wood flooring — modernizes the space and increases value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both landscaping — improves curb appeal and rental value ↑
• Both replace wood flooring — modernizes the space and increases value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Carlisle Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4205010
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,334
• Composite: 38.23/100
• National rank: #4247
• State rank: #277 of 539 in PA

Livability — North Middleton

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Schlusser, PA
• County: Cumberland County · 257,673 people
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• Population (ZIP): 38,513
• Household income: $71,042
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1444.0

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 267,950 people
• By 2030: 278,105 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 296,552 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 312,937 · +16.8%
• By 2075: 349,233 · +30.3%
• By 2100: 361,875 · +35.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.6% · R 54.1% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+10.6 2016: R+18.6 2012: R+18.5 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -140.48%
• Current HPI: 247.337
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Harrisburg-Carlisle, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

-32.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $174,900 Zillow
• 2024-12-21 Price Changed $199,900 Zillow
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $214,900 Zillow
• 2023-11-08 Listed $259,500 Zillow