1009 Watson Ave · St. Paul, MN 55102

$249,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,060 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1923 3,049 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

updated 3 bedroom home in 2009 with very nice kitchen and large deck two bedrooms on main level third bedroom downstairs with egress window just off 35e and randolph

Key facts

• 3,049 sq ft lot
• Built 1923
• Listed 8 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No parking
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Natural gas
• Home design: Residential property; One story
• Construction: Other foundation; Below-grade finished area present
• Exterior features: Wood exterior

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (10 x 11, main level)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (one 11 x 7 on main level; one 10 x 10 on main level)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central air
• Interior features: Unfinished basement; Deck (15 x 7, main level); Porch (9 x 4, main level)
• Laundry & utility: Basement utility area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $826 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Paul Public School District (urban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #270 of 301 in MN (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Adams Magnet Elementary (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #636 of 857 statewide, top 76%, 496 students, 43% FRL); Highland Park Middle School (math 27% / reading 44%, grade F, #172 of 258 statewide, top 68%, 805 students, 53% FRL); Highland Park Senior High (math 44% / reading 62%, grade C-, #107 of 471 statewide, top 23%, 1,390 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 64% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 27% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the St. Paul Public School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,202 units permitted in Ramsey County in 2024 (880 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,214/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($76k/yr) (locally 1116% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ramsey County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $70k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 34y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $144k; list at $250k implies a 74% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1923 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $249,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1923 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.17%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $7,700
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.81×
• Total profit: $56,808
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55102

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,214 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$298 /mo · $3,582/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$675
• Net cashflow: $826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,169

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 69%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $968	-5% $897	+0% $826	+5% $755	+10% $685
Rent	-10% $572	-5% $699	+0% $826	+5% $953	+10% $1,080
Rate	-1.0pp $952	-0.5pp $890	base $826	+0.5pp $761	+1.0pp $696

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
470 Lexington Pkwy S Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$3,500	$2.98	3d	19	0.29mi
740 Victoria St S Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1076	$3,562	$3.31	0d	38	0.54mi
380 Randolph Ave Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	753	$2,946	$3.91	1d	18	1.32mi
871 Sibley Memorial Hwy Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1207	$5,930	$4.91	0d	10	1.36mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-05-14
   listed $249,900 Active 900-char remark
2. 2026-05-13
   historical $249,900 900-char remark
3. 2025-07-29
   soldstatus $143,659
4. 2025-06-26
   historical
5. 2025-05-19
   status Active
6. 2025-05-19
   price $155,000
7. 2025-05-09
   historical Contingent - Inspection
8. 2025-04-23
   listed $199,900 Active
9. 2019-04-19
   soldstatus $109,000
10. 2012-02-05
    soldstatus $109,000

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    updated 3 bedroom home in 2009 with very nice kitchen and large deck two bedrooms on main level third bedroom downstairs with egress window just off 35e and randolph

11. 2012-01-16
    historical

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    updated 3 bedroom home in 2009 with very nice kitchen and large deck two bedrooms on main level third bedroom downstairs with egress window just off 35e and randolph

12. 2011-08-11
    listed $119,900

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    updated 3 bedroom home in 2009 with very nice kitchen and large deck two bedrooms on main level third bedroom downstairs with egress window just off 35e and randolph

13. 2011-07-22
    soldstatus $75,000
14. 2011-07-07
    historical
15. 2011-04-15
    listed $120,000
16. 1993-03-08
    soldstatus $8,000
17. 1993-02-09
    soldstatus $12,000
18. 1992-08-06
    listed $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,582 · $298/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,582 · $298/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,572
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$3,582
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,086
• − Management: −$3,086
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable income: $6,301
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,512
• After-tax cash flow: $8,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Paul Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2733840
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $48,316
• Composite: 23.51/100
• National rank: #7868
• State rank: #270 of 301 in MN

Livability — St. Paul

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Paul, MN
• County: Ramsey County · 542,837 people
• City population: 280,599
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 19,630
• Household income: $76,406
• Rent vs Own: 55.1% rent · 44.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1116.0

Population outlook (Ramsey County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 603,431 people
• By 2030: 636,459 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 700,596 · +16.1%
• By 2050: 765,819 · +26.9%
• By 2075: 929,297 · +54.0%
• By 2100: 1,053,924 · +74.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Lithuanian 5% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ramsey

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+43.3) · D 70.5% · R 27.2% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.4pp toward D · 2008: 33.9pp · 2024: 43.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+43.3 2020: D+45.4 2016: D+39.4 2012: D+35.3 2008: D+33.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -217.83%
• Current HPI: 241.7112
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+1566.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Pending — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-14 Listed $249,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-13 Coming Soon $249,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-29 Sold (Public Records) $143,659 Public Records
• 2025-06-26 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Relisted — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $155,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-09 Contingent — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-23 Listed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-19 Sold (Public Records) $109,000 Public Records
• 2012-02-05 Sold (MLS) $109,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-01-16 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-11 Listed $119,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2011-07-07 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-15 Listed $120,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 1993-02-09 Sold (MLS) $12,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1992-08-06 Listed $15,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,582 · +17.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.