245 Railroad Flat Rd #26 · Rail Road Flat, CA 95245

$70,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 264 sqft · Manufactured public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2006 7.41 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

With private financing available for only $20,000 down, this 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom double-wide mobile home offers an accessible path to homeownership with a monthly home payment of $650 and $500 for space rent. The interior features a spacious open-concept living area with vaulted ceilings and rich, dark wood-style flooring that flows throughout. The kitchen is fully equipped with included appliances and features ample oak cabinetry and a convenient breakfast bar that overlooks the main living space. For added convenience, dedicated laundry hookups are available in-unit. Large windows and sliding glass doors flood the home with natural light and offer peaceful views of the surrounding pines

Key facts

• Ample oak cabinetry
• Vaulted ceilings
• Breakfast bar

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• VAULTED CEILINGS
• DARK WOOD-STYLE FLOORING
• FULLY EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• AMPLE OAK CABINETRY
• BREAKFAST BAR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.2% vs local median 1.8% in Rail Road Flat — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,208 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Calaveras Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #436 of 517 in CA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 77 units permitted in Calaveras County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $708 of equity ($484 loan paydown + $224 appreciation (0.3% local appreciation)).
• Calaveras County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.62% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 28.21%
• DSCR: 2.26
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.32% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $28,343
• Equity at exit: $21,453

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.71×
• Total profit: $72,811
• Equity at exit: $26,705

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95245

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $467/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$238
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $551

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 54%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $500	-5% $481	+0% $461	+5% $441	+10% $421
Rent	-10% $371	-5% $416	+0% $461	+5% $506	+10% $550
Rate	-1.0pp $496	-0.5pp $479	base $461	+0.5pp $443	+1.0pp $424

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $467 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $532 · $44/mo
• Expected delta: +$65/yr (+$5/mo · 13.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 28 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,609
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$467
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,089
• − Management: −$1,089
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $4,657
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,118
• After-tax cash flow: $4,411/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Calaveras Unified
• NCES district ID: 0606870
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $55,559
• Composite: 20.06/100
• National rank: #8654
• State rank: #436 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rail Road Flat

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1208
• US rank: #26119

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rail Road Flat, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,227

Population outlook (Calaveras County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,163 people
• By 2030: 41,703 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 38,202 · -11.5%
• By 2050: 35,385 · -18.0%
• By 2075: 30,807 · -28.6%
• By 2100: 25,755 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 10% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Calaveras

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.1) · D 34.7% · R 62.8% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -13.0pp · 2024: -28.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.1 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+23.9 2012: R+17.0 2008: R+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Current HPI: 159.2644
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2019): $467 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.