422 Doc Brown Rd · Silver City, NC 28376

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 568 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 1968

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Corner lot. Property is being sold in AS IS condition.

Key facts

• New ac unit
• New septic system
• New roof

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED TINY HOUSE
• NEWLY REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF
• NEW ELECTRICAL WIRING
• NEW AC UNIT
• NEW SEPTIC SYSTEM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $308 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $109k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#196 in NC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-, housing A-; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute D-.
• Hoke County Schools (suburban): math 35% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #123 of 178 in NC (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: West Hoke Middle (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #368 of 475 statewide, top 78%, 576 students, 100% FRL); Hoke County High (math 42% / reading 44%, grade F, #372 of 535 statewide, top 69%, 2,060 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 57% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 685 units permitted in Hoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hoke County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($109k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $102k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $109,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.01%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,250
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $18,421
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28376

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,283 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $311/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$269
• Net cashflow: $308

Break-even live

Break-even rent $893

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
503 E 6th Ave Raeford, NC	2.0	1.0	744	$1,100	$1.48	23d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2025-06-23
   soldstatus $102,000
2. 2025-05-27
   status Pending
3. 2025-05-19
   status Active
4. 2025-05-14
   status Pending
5. 2025-04-10
   price $120,000
6. 2025-01-22
   listed $125,000 Active
7. 2024-01-08
   soldstatus $22,000 Sold 54-char remark

   Show marketing remark (54 chars)

   Corner lot. Property is being sold in AS IS condition.

8. 2023-12-18
   status Pending 54-char remark

   Show marketing remark (54 chars)

   Corner lot. Property is being sold in AS IS condition.

9. 2023-12-07
   listed $25,000 Active 54-char remark

   Show marketing remark (54 chars)

   Corner lot. Property is being sold in AS IS condition.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $311 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $984 · $82/mo
• Expected delta: +$673/yr (+$56/mo · 216.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,394
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$311
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,232
• − Management: −$1,232
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $1,807
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$434
• After-tax cash flow: $3,265/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hoke County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3702250
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,896
• Composite: 31.82/100
• National rank: #5880
• State rank: #123 of 178 in NC

Livability — Silver City

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #196
• US rank: #9631

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D- Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D Housing A- Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hoke County · 44,880 people
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 44,880
• Household income: $66,471
• Rent vs Own: 27.7% rent · 72.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 897.0

Population outlook (Hoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,354 people
• By 2030: 68,361 · +7.9%
• By 2040: 78,074 · +23.2%
• By 2050: 86,384 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 99,517 · +57.1%
• By 2100: 98,939 · +56.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Black 35% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 9% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hoke

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.9) · D 52.4% · R 46.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: 18.8pp · 2024: 5.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.9 2020: D+10.9 2016: D+10.8 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -53.30%
• Current HPI: 169.1801
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.92%
• Metro: Fayetteville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+308.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-06-23 Sold (Public Records) $102,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-27 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2025-05-19 Relisted — LPRMLS
• 2025-05-14 Pending — LPRMLS
• 2025-04-10 Price Changed $120,000 LPRMLS
• 2025-01-22 Listed $125,000 LPRMLS
• 2024-01-08 Sold (MLS) $22,000 TMLS
• 2023-12-18 Pending — TMLS
• 2023-12-07 Listed $25,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $311 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.