20679 Denham Crossing Rd · Birch Creek, MN 55795

$149,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1987 8.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.0/30.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.9/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0

Listing remarks

Showings to start Saturday, 6/13. Great investment property! 3 bed/2 bath house built into a hill on 8 acres with Birch Creek passing through the corner of the land. This home features over 1400 square feet with main level kitchen, living room, full bath with laundry and utilities, and entry that could be used as a mud room, office, dining room, etc. Upper level of the home has three bedrooms, a 3/4 bathroom, and a 3-season porch spanning the front of home. Tar road frontage, 10 minutes from I-35 - bring your ideas to update this property and make it your new home or cabin up north!

Key facts

• Main level kitchen
• Birch creek
• Tar road frontage

Tags

• BIRCH CREEK
• 8 ACRES
• MAIN LEVEL KITCHEN
• 3 SEASON PORCH
• TAR ROAD FRONTAGE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $99k (34.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $89k (40.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $89k (40.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Willow River Public School District (rural): math 24% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #261 of 301 in MN (top 87%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 116 units permitted in Pine County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pine County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$41k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask is 276% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $24k; list at $150k implies a 527% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $88,914 (40.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.59% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.98%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.25%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 14.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.51×
• Total profit: $63,253
• Equity at exit: $135,042

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.2%
• Equity multiple: 5.78×
• Total profit: $200,689
• Equity at exit: $291,223

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55795

• Home prices YoY: 11.1%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 14.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $889 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,708/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,254

Max offer price $98,942

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-204	-5% $-246	+0% $-288	+5% $-331	+10% $-373
Rent	-10% $-359	-5% $-324	+0% $-288	+5% $-253	+10% $-218
Rate	-1.0pp $-213	-0.5pp $-250	base $-288	+0.5pp $-327	+1.0pp $-367

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $149,900 Active 1 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   remarks 591-char remark
7. 2026-06-12
   listed $149,900 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,708 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,708 · $142/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,670
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,708
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$854
• − Management: −$854
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$6,252
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,501
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,961/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willow River Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2742750
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $42,510
• Composite: 29.14/100
• National rank: #6584
• State rank: #261 of 301 in MN

Livability — Birch Creek

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,876

Population outlook (Pine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,565 people
• By 2030: 26,567 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 23,878 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 20,931 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 15,372 · -44.2%
• By 2100: 11,032 · -60.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 16% Portuguese 9% Italian 6%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pine

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.2) · D 31.6% · R 66.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.5pp · 2024: -35.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.2 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+26.3 2012: R+0.7 2008: D+1.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.82%
• Current HPI: 237.7192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+328.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $23,925 Public Records
• 1995-08-22 Sold (MLS) $39,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $39,900 Public Records
• 1995-07-20 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-04-13 Sold (Public Records) $23,924 Public Records
• 1995-04-04 Listed $39,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 1994-08-09 Sold (MLS) $35,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-08-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-07-14 Listed $35,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,708 · +14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.