12907 Shining Blue Nile Ln · Ruskin, FL 34219

$331,400

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,936 sqft · SingleFamily · 49 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $171/sqft · 7% below area Est $356k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

An open floorplan is shared among the family room, dining room and kitchen in this single-story home. Separate from three secondary bedrooms, the serene owner's suite features a spa-like private bathroom designed for tranquil shared living. Completing the home is a two-car garage for storage and other versatile needs.

Key facts

• Kitchen
• Open floorplan
• Family room

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• FAMILY ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• KITCHEN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• PRIVATE BATHROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $331k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $66 ($796/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $298k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $298k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Ruskin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, commute B+; Watch: amenities F, health & safety F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 2991 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 64d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 59% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($114k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 49 days — a 3% lower offer ($321k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $298,301 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 49 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.86%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,514
• List price: $331,400
• Delta: -6.78%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13156 Merlot Sunstone Cv	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,935 (-0%)	10mo	$270,000	$140	73
12115 Smoky Emerald Ter	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,817 (-6%)	6mo	$310,000	$171	72
13231 Commons Ave	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,974 (+2%)	8mo	$349,000	$177	65
13508 Cornerstone Way	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,853 (-4%)	9mo	$365,999	$198	60
13219 Commons Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,848 (-4%)	10mo	$341,619	$185	60
13827 Sawmill St	0.70mi	4/2.0	1,848 (-4%)	1mo	$343,279	$186	59
13815 Sawmill St	0.67mi	4/2.0	1,848 (-4%)	4mo	$319,704	$173	58
13243 Commons Ave	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,142 (+11%)	0mo	$340,999	$159	53
13426 Camelot Ct	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,853 (-4%)	3mo	$329,999	$178	53
13407 Commons Ave	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,792 (-7%)	3mo	$387,529	$216	47
13415 Commons Ave	0.67mi	4/3.5	2,138 (+10%)	2mo	$418,194	$196	43
13423 Commons Ave	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,197 (+14%)	3mo	$457,534	$208	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-58,172
• Equity at exit: $49,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-78,816
• Equity at exit: $28,653

Cash invested: $92,792 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 75 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 30.0 mo (3%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $348,999 ($182/sqft)
• Median days on market: 121 d
• This list price: 33% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +0.9% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34219

• Home prices YoY: -23.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 2991
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,983 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,738
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$414 /mo · $4,971/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$626
• Net cashflow: $66

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,899

Max offer price $331,400

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $181	+0% $66	+5% $-48	+10% $-163
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-51	+0% $66	+5% $184	+10% $302
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $151	base $66	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-107

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,850
• Closing costs: $9,942
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13118 Empress Jewel , FL	5.0	2.5	2215	$3,100	$1.40	9d	1	0.10mi
12215 Radiant Gem Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2584	$3,000	$1.16	112d	1	0.22mi
12805 Crystal Jade Way Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2162	$2,600	$1.20	78d	1	0.32mi
13441 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	3.0	1747	$2,295	$1.31	80d	1	0.41mi
13416 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1993	$2,395	$1.20	74d	1	0.41mi
13420 Noble Garnet Ln Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,095	$1.19	65d	1	0.41mi
11824 Blue Diamond Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2576	$2,995	$1.16	9d	1	0.60mi
13524 Camelot Ct Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1853	$2,350	$1.27	3d	1	0.68mi
13159 Stable Pl Parrish, FL	3.0	2.5	1404	$2,100	$1.50	0d	1	0.87mi
12456 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,699	$1.32	93d	1	1.06mi
12415 Nantahala Run Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,700	$1.32	5d	1	1.06mi
10757 Chippewa Dr Parrish, FL	5.0	3.0	2605	$2,750	$1.06	63d	1	1.08mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Unit NA Duette, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	107d	1	1.17mi
11007 Tamarack Pl Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2537	$3,000	$1.18	65d	1	1.17mi
10642 Chippewa Dr Parrish, FL	4.0	3.0	2435	$2,550	$1.05	9d	1	1.30mi
12432 Dora Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.5	2044	$3,000	$1.47	63d	1	1.42mi
12140 Kingsley Trl Parrish, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,266	$1.24	9d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $331,400 Active 49 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   pricedays on market $331,400 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $336,400 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   pricedays on market $336,400 Active 46 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,564
• − Property taxes: −$4,971
• − Insurance: −$1,657
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,864
• − Management: −$2,864
• − Depreciation: −$9,641
• Taxable loss: −$4,764
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,143
• After-tax cash flow: $1,939/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $9,680–$29,040 screening

This single-story home features a modern open floor plan with good condition throughout. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that can significantly increase its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 50/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Virgil Mills Elementary School B+ FL #450/2,144 Nat'l #4,366/41,679 Middle Buffalo Creek Middle School B- FL #180/571 Nat'l #2,482/14,009 High Palmetto High School F FL #456/667 Nat'l #11,621/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

B Composite livability gradescore 71/100

Livability — Ruskin

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6879

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 447,342 people
• City population: 33,319
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,296
• Household income: $113,773
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 16% of renters

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Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 8% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Hispanic 2% Russian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -84.45%
• Current HPI: 271.7131
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B