2206 Lierna Dr · Texas City, TX 77568

$290,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,717 sqft · Land · 187 Days on market

Built 2025 6,420 sqft lot $169/sqft · 6% below area Est $309k · 6% under $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Take a trip out to Lago Mar and tour this 1 story Adams Homes property offering 1,717 square feet of well designed living space. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and sits on a lot with no back neighbors. The exterior offers full brick on all sides and a covered patio for outdoor enjoyment. Inside, you’ll find laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and tray ceilings in both the living area and primary bedroom. Schedule your showing today and come see everything this home has to offer.

Key facts

• Laminate flooring
• Covered patio
• No back neighbors

Tags

• NO BACK NEIGHBORS
• BRICKED ON ALL 4 SIDES
• COVERED PATIO
• LAMINATE FLOORING
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• SHAKER STYLE CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $291k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-58 ($-700/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $281k (3.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (17.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (17.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.3% in Texas City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#907 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Dickinson ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #366 of 826 in TX (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hughes Road El (math 36% / reading 31%, grade F, #2,174 of 4,322 statewide, top 51%, 707 students, 67% FRL); Dunbar Middle (math 25% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,341 of 1,662 statewide, top 82%, 654 students, 78% FRL); Dickinson H S (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #880 of 1,632 statewide, top 54%, 3,619 students, 64% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+4.0%/yr); 661 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,258 units permitted in Galveston County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Galveston County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 187 days — a 12% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,521 (17.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 187 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.86%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $309,456
• List price: $290,900
• Delta: -6.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-48,530
• Equity at exit: $43,374

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-37,317
• Equity at exit: $25,152

Cash invested: $81,452 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77568

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 661
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,526
• Tax from tax record: −$187 /mo · $2,241/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $-58

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,479

Max offer price $280,592

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $24	+0% $-58	+5% $-141	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-153	+0% $-58	+5% $37	+10% $132
Rate	-1.0pp $88	-0.5pp $16	base $-58	+0.5pp $-134	+1.0pp $-210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,725
• Closing costs: $8,727
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13817 Starboard Reach Dr Santa Fe, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.5	2268	$2,445	$1.08	0d	1	0.72mi
640 Totem Trail Dr La Marque, TX	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,309	$1.08	13d	1	0.96mi
12524 Jetty Cv Santa Fe, TX	3.0	2.0	1803	$2,506	$1.39	24d	1	1.19mi
2437 Regatta Ln La Marque, TX	4.0	2.0	1844	$2,079	$1.13	7d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $290,900 Pending 187 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $290,900 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $290,900 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $290,900 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $290,900 Active 184 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $290,900 Active 182 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $290,900 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $290,900 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $290,900 Active 176 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $290,900 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $290,900 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,900 Active 171 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $290,900 Active 170 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $290,900 Active 169 DOM
15. 2026-05-12
    price $290,900 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Take a trip out to Lago Mar and tour this 1 story Adams Homes property offering 1,717 square feet of well designed living space. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and sits on a lot with no back neighbors. The exterior offers full brick on all sides and a covered patio for outdoor enjoyment. Inside, you’ll find laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and tray ceilings in both the living area and primary bedroom. Schedule your showing today and come see everything this home has to offer.

16. 2026-03-05
    price $285,900 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Take a trip out to Lago Mar and tour this 1 story Adams Homes property offering 1,717 square feet of well designed living space. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and sits on a lot with no back neighbors. The exterior offers full brick on all sides and a covered patio for outdoor enjoyment. Inside, you’ll find laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and tray ceilings in both the living area and primary bedroom. Schedule your showing today and come see everything this home has to offer.

17. 2025-12-27
    price $310,900 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Take a trip out to Lago Mar and tour this 1 story Adams Homes property offering 1,717 square feet of well designed living space. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and sits on a lot with no back neighbors. The exterior offers full brick on all sides and a covered patio for outdoor enjoyment. Inside, you’ll find laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and tray ceilings in both the living area and primary bedroom. Schedule your showing today and come see everything this home has to offer.

18. 2025-12-13
    price $300,900 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Take a trip out to Lago Mar and tour this 1 story Adams Homes property offering 1,717 square feet of well designed living space. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and sits on a lot with no back neighbors. The exterior offers full brick on all sides and a covered patio for outdoor enjoyment. Inside, you’ll find laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and tray ceilings in both the living area and primary bedroom. Schedule your showing today and come see everything this home has to offer.

19. 2025-12-13
    listed $310,900 Active 568-char remark

    Show marketing remark (568 chars)

    Take a trip out to Lago Mar and tour this 1 story Adams Homes property offering 1,717 square feet of well designed living space. This home features 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms and sits on a lot with no back neighbors. The exterior offers full brick on all sides and a covered patio for outdoor enjoyment. Inside, you’ll find laminate flooring, stainless steel appliances, shaker style cabinets, granite countertops, and tray ceilings in both the living area and primary bedroom. Schedule your showing today and come see everything this home has to offer.

20. 2025-11-19
    historical
21. 2025-10-20
    listed $310,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,241 · $187/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,323 · $444/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,082/yr (+$257/mo · 137.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,863
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,295
• − Property taxes: −$2,241
• − Insurance: −$1,454
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,309
• − Management: −$2,309
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$8,463
• Taxable loss: −$5,708
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,370
• After-tax cash flow: $670/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dickinson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4817070
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $61,318
• Composite: 35.16/100
• National rank: #5005
• State rank: #366 of 826 in TX

Livability — Texas City

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #907
• US rank: #16268

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Texas City, TX
• County: Galveston County · 357,330 people
• City population: 23,083
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,083
• Household income: $74,694
• Rent vs Own: 28.0% rent · 72.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 700.0

Population outlook (Galveston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 390,640 people
• By 2030: 425,226 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 493,765 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 559,698 · +43.3%
• By 2075: 719,260 · +84.1%
• By 2100: 819,628 · +109.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.71)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Hispanic / Latino 29% Black 26% Two or more races 17% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 21% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Galveston

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.7% · R 63.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: -19.5pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+22.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+19.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -69.39%
• Current HPI: 236.0239
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $290,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $285,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-27 Price Changed $310,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $300,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-13 Listed $310,900 HARMLS
• 2025-11-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-20 Listed $310,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,241 · +19.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.