5303 Lyons Ave #4 · Houston, TX 77020

$199,000

1 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,800 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1940 5,998 sqft lot $71/sqft · 8% below area Est $217k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks

The home was used as an office. You have six offices on the 2nd floor with a kitchen at the rear. This home has a garage that was converted into a room on the first floor. You also have a huge open space on the first floor that includes two half bathrooms. Each have individual stalls and urinal. Upstairs you have one full bathroom with a shower and an additional half bathroom.

Key facts

• Kitchen at the rear
• Two half bathrooms
• Six offices

Tags

• SIX OFFICES
• KITCHEN AT THE REAR
• CONVERTED GARAGE
• HUGE OPEN SPACE
• TWO HALF BATHROOMS
• FULL BATHROOM WITH SHOWER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Seller disclosure available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 1940; Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Lot approximately 6,000 square feet; Lot listed with 'Other' features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Bedroom on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 3 half bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One room total

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/2.5-bath multifamily listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-299 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $146k (26.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $145k (27.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $145k (27.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Atherton El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 433 students, 96% FRL); Mcreynolds Middle (math 10% / reading 17%, grade F, #1,602 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 398 students, 98% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $144,556 (27.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.45%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $216,735
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -8.18%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4409 Hershe St	0.51mi	2/1.0 (+1)	2,560 (-9%)	6mo	$399,000	$156	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.64×
• Total profit: $91,245
• Equity at exit: $179,275

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $287,819
• Equity at exit: $386,613

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77020

• Home prices YoY: 29.1%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,446 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$315 /mo · $3,779/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$304
• Net cashflow: $-299

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,825

Max offer price $146,112

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-187	-5% $-243	+0% $-299	+5% $-356	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-414	-5% $-356	+0% $-299	+5% $-242	+10% $-185
Rate	-1.0pp $-199	-0.5pp $-249	base $-299	+0.5pp $-351	+1.0pp $-403

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $199,000 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $199,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $199,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-05
    listed $199,000 Active 384-char remark
14. 2026-04-28
    historical
15. 2025-11-11
    listed $199,000 Active
16. 1993-09-06
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,779 · $315/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,779 · $315/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,779
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,388
• − Management: −$1,388
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$7,139
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,713
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 23,686
• Household income: $50,119
• Rent vs Own: 46.2% rent · 53.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 969.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 69% Black 24% Two or more races 22% White 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 60%
• Common ancestry: Swiss 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada
• Languages at home: 39% English-only · Spanish 59% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 55.64%
• Current HPI: 246.5578
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-11 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 1993-09-06 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,779 · -2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.