111 Crappie Lane Ln · Guntown, MS 38849

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,370 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1967 8,855 sqft lot $102/sqft · 19% below area Est $172k · 19% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy beautiful water views from this charming cabin on Sportsman's Lake. This inviting getaway offers a stunning porch view overlooking the lake and shoreline perfect for fishing, relaxing, or launching a kayak. Inside, the cabin features an open floor plan, a metal roof, and vinyl siding, creating a low-maintenance exterior that lets you spend more time enjoying the lake and less time on upkeep. Whether you're looking for a weekend retreat or a peaceful full-time residence, this cabin delivers the ideal blend of comfort, simplicity, and lakeside living. Home is to be sold fully furnished.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Water views
• Metal roof

Tags

• WATER VIEWS
• PORCH VIEW
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• METAL ROOF
• VINYL SIDING
• LOW-MAINTENANCE EXTERIOR

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $200 (about $16.67/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Exterior features: Metal roof; On the waterfront; Lot dimensions approximately 115 x 77

Interior

• Kitchen: Range, Refrigerator, Microwave
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (type: Other); Has cooling (type: Other)
• Interior features: Range, Refrigerator, Microwave; 5 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $50 ($602/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#98 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Lee County School District (rural): math 37% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #51 of 130 in MS (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $35k; list at $140k implies a 300% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,672 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.54%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $171,711
• List price: $139,900
• Delta: -18.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-19,495
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-12,946
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38849

• Home prices YoY: -8.5%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,207 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$94 /mo · $1,130/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,143

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $129	-5% $90	+0% $50	+5% $11	+10% $-29
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $3	+0% $50	+5% $98	+10% $146
Rate	-1.0pp $121	-0.5pp $86	base $50	+0.5pp $14	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 37 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 36 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   statusdays on market $139,900 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   status $139,900 Pending 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $139,900 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    remarks 615-char remark
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-01
    listed $149,900 Active 597-char remark
15. 2020-11-06
    soldstatus $35,000
16. 2008-10-28
    soldstatus $36,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,130 · $94/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,130 · $94/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,481
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$1,130
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,158
• − Management: −$1,158
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,776
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$426
• After-tax cash flow: $1,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee County School District
• NCES district ID: 2802550
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,435
• Composite: 30.38/100
• National rank: #6253
• State rank: #51 of 130 in MS

Livability — Guntown

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #12145

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,874

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,253 people
• By 2030: 92,125 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 94,914 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 95,841 · +6.2%
• By 2075: 94,189 · +4.4%
• By 2100: 83,736 · -7.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Black 14% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.3pp toward R · 2008: -30.5pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+32.5 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+29.0 2008: R+30.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.64%
• Current HPI: 168.9667
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+288.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Relisted — NEMSBD
• 2026-06-02 Pending — NEMSBD
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $139,900 NEMSBD
• 2026-05-01 Listed $149,900 NEMSBD
• 2020-11-06 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records
• 2008-10-28 Sold (Public Records) $36,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,130 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.