5462 Quarry Rock Rd · Lakeland, FL 33809

$174,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Condo public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2007 $342/mo HOA · 20% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Move-in ready townhouse/condo in Cobblestone Landing! This is a 2 Bedroom with a bonus room (could be used as an office or extra bedroom). Upgrades include: Bamboo laminate flooring, all new interior painting, kitchen backsplash, metal designer stair railing, custom vanity & mirror in half bath and glass sliding barn door to bonus room (3rd room). Live maintenance free-HOA covers all exterior maintenance including mowing, landscaping, building insurance, roof/painting reserves, road paving/sidewalks, gated entrance & Community pool. Washer/dryer included but not warranted.

Key facts

• Easy access
• Community pool
• Exterior maintenance

Tags

• SCREENED REAR PORCH
• EXTERIOR STORAGE CLOSET
• COMMUNITY POOL
• MAINTAINED GROUNDS
• EXTERIOR MAINTENANCE
• EASY ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area 1,496 square feet (per public records)
• Financial info: Total annual association fees $4,104; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Monthly condo/HOA fee $342; HOA includes structure and grounds maintenance; Association amenities: Pool; Association approval required; Pets allowed (cats OK, dogs OK, breed restrictions)

Exterior

• Parking: Curb parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Residential condominium; Completed condition; Two stories; Faces east; First-floor unit
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of multi-unit building
• Exterior features: Other exterior features; Asphalt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full baths, 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heat; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-673/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $165k (5.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $175k).
• Recommended offer: $165k (5.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#206 in FL, #3,179 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 259 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; 36% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $165,083 (5.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.37%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.65% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-35,808
• Equity at exit: $26,092

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-50,946
• Equity at exit: $15,130

Cash invested: $48,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33809

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 259
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,753 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$108 /mo · $1,296/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$342
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$368
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,824

Max offer price $165,083

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,748
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5840 Sandpipers Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1732	$2,000	$1.15	14d	1	0.38mi
4950 Deep Forest Ct Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$1,718	$1.64	2d	27	0.45mi
6006 Crane Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1372	$2,000	$1.46	11d	1	0.50mi
206 Mary Catherine Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,725	$1.38	23d	1	0.74mi
6268 Sandpipers Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1484	$1,995	$1.34	23d	1	0.78mi
259 Village View Ln Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	885	$1,600	$1.81	23d	1	0.82mi
235 Leelon Rd Lakeland, FL	2.0	1.0	921	$1,295	$1.41	23d	1	0.82mi
165 Shannon Dr Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,350	$1.34	3d	1	0.88mi
239 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	912	$1,495	$1.64	23d	1	0.89mi
236 Village Crest Ct Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,550	$1.36	13d	1	0.91mi
1031 Hidden Ct Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1712	$1,995	$1.17	23d	1	1.08mi
5818 Bambi Dr Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1401	$2,200	$1.57	23d	1	1.11mi
114 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,450	$1.40	23d	1	1.14mi
124 Rosalynn Cir Lakeland, FL	2.0	2.0	1033	$1,550	$1.50	3d	1	1.15mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	14d	1	1.17mi
5817 Daughtery Downs Loop Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1609	$1,800	$1.12	23d	1	1.17mi
5275 Long Lake Cir Lakeland, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$1,565	$1.46	14d	13	1.40mi
5725 Lacar Way Lakeland, FL	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,995	$1.45	13d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $342 · $4,104/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingexterior maint.insurancepoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,990 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,990 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,990 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,990 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,990 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $174,990 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,990 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,990 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
10. 2026-06-07
    listed $174,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,296 · $108/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,452 · $121/mo
• Expected delta: +$156/yr (+$13/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,031
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,802
• − Property taxes: −$1,296
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,682
• − Management: −$1,682
• − HOA: −$4,104
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$3,502
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$841
• After-tax cash flow: $168/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakeland

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #206
• US rank: #3179

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeland, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 277,690
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 30,797
• Household income: $70,066
• Rent vs Own: 35.8% rent · 64.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 924.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 18% Black 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 1% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.46%
• Current HPI: 301.3054
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+29.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $174,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-11-22 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-21 Sold (MLS) $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-09-30 Listed $134,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,296 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.