18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #75 · Valley Center, CA 92082

$259,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,923 sqft · Manufactured · 168 Days on market

Built 1977 $135/sqft · at area comps Est $250k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.9/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous home in Gated 55+ SGCA Approved Executive Golf Course Community. This updated home has everything you've been looking for. Within the past two years - new hot water heater, new vinyl dual paned windows, painted exterior, new fencing, new artificial turf, new front and backdoor screen doors, remodeled the master bathroom, replaced cooktop and wall oven, new light fixtures and more. Open floorplan with large covered front porch, fenced in rear yard and fully landscaped with * * SEE Supplement. * * Avocado, apple, orange, pomegranate, peach, plum, lime and lemon trees. Large storage shed and oversized 1+ car garage. Located in a gated, active 55+ community, this property offers exceptional amenities, including FREE Golf for residents on an Executive SCGA Approved 18-hole Course, a pool, clubhouse, RV parking, and more. Move-in ready and waiting for its new owners—schedule a viewing today! Definitely one of the nicest homes in Skyline Ranch - don't miss this one!

Key facts

• New fencing
• New artificial turf
• New hot water heater

Tags

• GATED 55 GOLF COURSE COMMUNITY
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• NEW VINYL DUAL PANED WINDOWS
• PAINTED EXTERIOR
• NEW FENCING
• NEW ARTIFICIAL TURF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $704 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $259k).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 2.5% in Valley Center — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,017 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing B; Watch: commute C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Valley Center-Pauma Unified (rural): math 16% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #367 of 517 in CA (top 71%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 165 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $73k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.65%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,900
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: 3.64%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #203	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,784 (-7%)	0mo	$275,000	$154	82
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 89	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,770 (-8%)	2mo	$215,000	$121	79
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 200 Spc 200	0.13mi	2/2.0	2,038 (+6%)	11mo	$105,000	$52	75
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 18 Spc 18	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,792 (-7%)	11mo	$285,000	$159	74
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #20	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,832 (-5%)	21mo	$110,000	$60	68
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 151 Spc 151	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,064 (+7%)	12mo	$289,000	$140	67
18218 Paradise Mtn Rd #59	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,680 (-13%)	3mo	$249,900	$149	65
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd #144	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,680 (-13%)	12mo	$170,000	$101	63
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 68	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	2,005 (+4%)	24mo	$245,000	$122	62
18218 Paradise Mountain Rd Spc 205A	0.13mi	2/2.0	1,704 (-11%)	24mo	$340,000	$200	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $2,924
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $60,485
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92082

• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,157 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$324 /mo · $3,885/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$663
• Net cashflow: $704

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,266

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 73%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 168 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 167 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 166 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 165 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 163 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,000 Active 162 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,000 Active 159 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 158 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,000 Active 157 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $259,000 Active 154 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 153 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 152 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 151 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 150 DOM
15. 2026-03-04
    price $279,000 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    Gorgeous home in Gated 55+ SGCA Approved Executive Golf Course Community. This updated home has everything you've been looking for. Within the past two years - new hot water heater, new vinyl dual paned windows, painted exterior, new fencing, new artificial turf, new front and backdoor screen doors, remodeled the master bathroom, replaced cooktop and wall oven, new light fixtures and more. Open floorplan with large covered front porch, fenced in rear yard and fully landscaped with * * SEE Supplement. * * Avocado, apple, orange, pomegranate, peach, plum, lime and lemon trees. Large storage shed and oversized 1+ car garage. Located in a gated, active 55+ community, this property offers exceptional amenities, including FREE Golf for residents on an Executive SCGA Approved 18-hole Course, a pool, clubhouse, RV parking, and more. Move-in ready and waiting for its new owners—schedule a viewing today! Definitely one of the nicest homes in Skyline Ranch - don't miss this one!

16. 2026-01-11
    price $289,000 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    Gorgeous home in Gated 55+ SGCA Approved Executive Golf Course Community. This updated home has everything you've been looking for. Within the past two years - new hot water heater, new vinyl dual paned windows, painted exterior, new fencing, new artificial turf, new front and backdoor screen doors, remodeled the master bathroom, replaced cooktop and wall oven, new light fixtures and more. Open floorplan with large covered front porch, fenced in rear yard and fully landscaped with * * SEE Supplement. * * Avocado, apple, orange, pomegranate, peach, plum, lime and lemon trees. Large storage shed and oversized 1+ car garage. Located in a gated, active 55+ community, this property offers exceptional amenities, including FREE Golf for residents on an Executive SCGA Approved 18-hole Course, a pool, clubhouse, RV parking, and more. Move-in ready and waiting for its new owners—schedule a viewing today! Definitely one of the nicest homes in Skyline Ranch - don't miss this one!

17. 2026-01-01
    listed $299,000 Active 993-char remark

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    Gorgeous home in Gated 55+ SGCA Approved Executive Golf Course Community. This updated home has everything you've been looking for. Within the past two years - new hot water heater, new vinyl dual paned windows, painted exterior, new fencing, new artificial turf, new front and backdoor screen doors, remodeled the master bathroom, replaced cooktop and wall oven, new light fixtures and more. Open floorplan with large covered front porch, fenced in rear yard and fully landscaped with * * SEE Supplement. * * Avocado, apple, orange, pomegranate, peach, plum, lime and lemon trees. Large storage shed and oversized 1+ car garage. Located in a gated, active 55+ community, this property offers exceptional amenities, including FREE Golf for residents on an Executive SCGA Approved 18-hole Course, a pool, clubhouse, RV parking, and more. Move-in ready and waiting for its new owners—schedule a viewing today! Definitely one of the nicest homes in Skyline Ranch - don't miss this one!

18. 2026-01-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (993 chars)

    Gorgeous home in Gated 55+ SGCA Approved Executive Golf Course Community. This updated home has everything you've been looking for. Within the past two years - new hot water heater, new vinyl dual paned windows, painted exterior, new fencing, new artificial turf, new front and backdoor screen doors, remodeled the master bathroom, replaced cooktop and wall oven, new light fixtures and more. Open floorplan with large covered front porch, fenced in rear yard and fully landscaped with * * SEE Supplement. * * Avocado, apple, orange, pomegranate, peach, plum, lime and lemon trees. Large storage shed and oversized 1+ car garage. Located in a gated, active 55+ community, this property offers exceptional amenities, including FREE Golf for residents on an Executive SCGA Approved 18-hole Course, a pool, clubhouse, RV parking, and more. Move-in ready and waiting for its new owners—schedule a viewing today! Definitely one of the nicest homes in Skyline Ranch - don't miss this one!

19. 2025-10-28
    price $299,000
20. 2025-08-15
    listed $324,900 Active
21. 2023-09-28
    soldstatus $276,000 Closed Sale
22. 2023-09-18
    status Pending Sale
23. 2023-08-08
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2023-06-21
    listed $295,000 Active
25. 2023-06-01
    historical $295,000
26. 2022-12-15
    historical
27. 2022-09-08
    listed $295,000 Active
28. 2022-09-08
    historical
29. 2022-08-18
    listed $295,000 Active
30. 2020-11-17
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed Sale
31. 2020-10-24
    status Pending Sale
32. 2020-08-11
    price $179,900
33. 2020-08-11
    price $179,900
34. 2020-08-10
    price $179,799
35. 2020-08-10
    price $179,799
36. 2020-08-09
    price $179,800
37. 2020-08-09
    price $179,800
38. 2020-08-08
    price $179,850
39. 2020-08-08
    price $179,850
40. 2020-08-07
    price $179,859
41. 2020-08-07
    price $179,859
42. 2020-08-06
    price $179,899
43. 2020-08-06
    price $179,899
44. 2020-07-28
    price $179,900
45. 2020-07-27
    price $179,900
46. 2020-07-19
    listed $188,000 Active
47. 2020-07-05
    historical
48. 2020-07-05
    historical
49. 2020-05-17
    listed $188,800 Active
50. 2020-05-14
    listed $188,800 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 1 d/yr ≥97°F today · 3 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 10 unhealthy d/yr today · 12 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,884
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$3,885
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,031
• − Management: −$3,031
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable income: $4,600
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,104
• After-tax cash flow: $7,345/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Valley Center-Pauma Unified
• NCES district ID: 0600069
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $74,438
• Composite: 24.32/100
• National rank: #7705
• State rank: #367 of 517 in CA

Livability — Valley Center

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1017
• US rank: #24938

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 21,727
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,727
• Household income: $126,544
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 241.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 23% Native American 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 33%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -293.00%
• Current HPI: 294.6017
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+228.6% since first listed

40 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $279,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $289,000 SDMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $299,000 SDMLS
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $299,000 SDMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $324,900 SDMLS
• 2023-09-28 Sold (MLS) $276,000 CRMLS
• 2023-09-18 Pending — CRMLS
• 2023-08-08 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2023-06-21 Listed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2023-06-01 Coming Soon $295,000 CRMLS
• 2022-12-15 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-09-08 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2022-09-08 Listed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2022-08-18 Listed $295,000 CRMLS
• 2020-11-17 Sold (MLS) $175,000 CRMLS
• 2020-10-24 Pending — CRMLS
• 2020-08-11 Price Changed $179,900 SDMLS
• 2020-08-11 Price Changed $179,900 CRMLS
• 2020-08-10 Price Changed $179,799 SDMLS
• 2020-08-10 Price Changed $179,799 CRMLS
• 2020-08-09 Price Changed $179,800 SDMLS
• 2020-08-09 Price Changed $179,800 CRMLS
• 2020-08-08 Price Changed $179,850 SDMLS
• 2020-08-08 Price Changed $179,850 CRMLS
• 2020-08-07 Price Changed $179,859 SDMLS
• 2020-08-07 Price Changed $179,859 CRMLS
• 2020-08-06 Price Changed $179,899 SDMLS
• 2020-08-06 Price Changed $179,899 CRMLS
• 2020-07-28 Price Changed $179,900 SDMLS
• 2020-07-27 Price Changed $179,900 CRMLS
• 2020-07-19 Listed $188,000 CRMLS
• 2020-07-05 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2020-07-05 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2020-05-17 Listed $188,800 CRMLS
• 2020-05-14 Listed $188,800 SDMLS
• 2015-08-04 Sold (MLS) $75,000 SDMLS
• 2015-07-18 Pending — SDMLS
• 2015-06-30 Price Changed $79,500 SDMLS
• 2015-04-27 Listed $84,900 SDMLS