Plan 1907 Modeled Plan · New Caney, TX 77357

$214,995

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,907 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

Good condition 2-car garage

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* Front porch * Dining room * Dedicated laundry room * Loft * Walk-in closet at primary suite * Expansive primary bedroom * Kitchen breakfast bar * Granite kitchen countertops * 5-panel interior doors * WaterSense® labeled faucets * Low-E windows * ENERGY STAR® certified home * Commuter-friendly location * Near entertainment and leisure * Planned park * Planned splash pad * Close to popular restaurants * Close to family friendly parks

Key facts

• Loft
• Front porch
• Dining room

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• DINING ROOM
• DEDICATED LAUNDRY ROOM
• LOFT
• KITCHEN BREAKFAST BAR
• GRANITE KITCHEN COUNTERTOPS

🏗️ New construction. The $214,995 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $239,542.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $215k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-188 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (1.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $186k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $186k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• New Caney ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #570 of 826 in TX (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: New Caney H S (math 24% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,428 students, 78% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 57% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1238 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $185,727 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.35%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.37%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $239,542
• List price: $214,995
• Delta: -10.25%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20490 Lazy Creek Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,888 (-1%)	3mo	$350,000	$185	58
26961 Lantern Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,909 (+0%)	7mo	$295,000	$155	52
20748 Lazy Creek Dr	0.87mi	3/2.5	1,800 (-6%)	10mo	$340,000	$189	47
20135 Timber Line Ln	0.90mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-20%)	0mo	$240,000	$157	38
26763 Royal Coach Ln	0.89mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-17%)	4mo	$300,000	$189	34
26714 Saddle Rock Ln	0.87mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,648 (-14%)	5mo	$235,000	$143	31
20731 Pin Oak Rd	0.87mi	3/2.0	1,526 (-20%)	10mo	$290,000	$190	29

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.17×
• Total profit: $-55,846
• Equity at exit: $35,717

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.25×
• Total profit: $-83,633
• Equity at exit: $20,711

Cash invested: $67,072 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 16 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 24.0 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $226,995 ($121/sqft)
• Median days on market: 122 d
• This list price: 38% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +4.1% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77357

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 1238
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,857 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,256
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,593/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$390
• Net cashflow: $-188

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,095

Max offer price $212,312

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-23	-5% $-105	+0% $-188	+5% $-271	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-335	-5% $-262	+0% $-188	+5% $-115	+10% $-41
Rate	-1.0pp $-68	-0.5pp $-127	base $-188	+0.5pp $-250	+1.0pp $-313

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,886
• Closing costs: $7,186
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: New Caney, TX (Plan 1907 Modeled Plan)
• Financial info: List price $224,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (new construction)Listed as Plan 1907 ModeledActive status
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (new plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1907New construction (Plan 1907 Modeled)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (per plan)

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $214,995 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-08-06
   days on market $214,995 Active 120 DOM
3. 2026-08-05
   days on market $214,995 Active 119 DOM
4. 2026-08-04
   days on market $214,995 Active 118 DOM
5. 2026-08-03
   days on market $214,995 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-07-31
   days on market $214,995 Active 114 DOM
7. 2026-07-30
   days on market $214,995 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-07-28
   days on market $214,995 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-07-26
   days on market $214,995 Active 109 DOM
10. 2026-07-24
    days on market $214,995 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-07-23
    days on market $214,995 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-07-22
    days on market $214,995 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-07-21
    days on market $214,995 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-07-20
    days on market $214,995 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $214,995 Active 101 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $214,995 Active 100 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $214,995 Active 99 DOM
18. 2026-07-15
    days on market $214,995 Active 98 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $214,995 Active 97 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $214,995 Active 96 DOM
21. 2026-07-13
    days on market $214,995 Active 95 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $214,995 Active 94 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $214,995 Active 93 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $214,995 Active 92 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $214,995 Active 90 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $214,995 Active 89 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $214,995 Active 88 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $214,995 Active 87 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $214,995 Active 86 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $214,995 Active 85 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $214,995 Active 84 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $214,995 Active 83 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $214,995 Active 82 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $214,995 Active 81 DOM
35. 2026-06-27
    days on market $214,995 Active 80 DOM
36. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $214,995 Active 79 DOM
37. 2026-06-24
    days on market $224,995 Active 77 DOM
38. 2026-06-22
    days on market $224,995 Active 75 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $224,995 Active 74 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $224,995 Active 71 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $224,995 Active 70 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $224,995 Active 69 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $224,995 Active 68 DOM
44. 2026-06-13
    days on market $224,995 Active 66 DOM
45. 2026-06-10
    days on market $224,995 Active 62 DOM
46. 2026-06-08
    days on market $224,995 Active 61 DOM
47. 2026-06-07
    days on market $224,995 Active 60 DOM
48. 2026-06-04
    days on market $224,995 Active 57 DOM
49. 2026-06-03
    days on market $224,995 Active 56 DOM
50. 2026-06-02
    days on market $224,995 Active 55 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,418
• − Property taxes: −$3,593
• − Insurance: −$1,198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,783
• − Management: −$1,783
• − Depreciation: −$6,969
• Taxable loss: −$6,456
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,549
• After-tax cash flow: $-709/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This home is in good condition with minimal maintenance required. Fresh paint and energy-efficient windows would significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal ↑
• Both Replace low-E windows — Low-E windows improve energy efficiency and reduce heating/cooling costs ↑
• Both Install smart home features — Smart home features increase home's marketability and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 28/100

Zoned Schools

High New Caney H S F TX #1,183/1,632 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Caney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832400
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $55,380
• Composite: 27.97/100
• National rank: #6857
• State rank: #570 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Caney

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 37,592
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 37,592
• Household income: $76,050
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 21% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 45% Two or more races 31% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 23% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 40% Other Indo-European 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.71%
• Current HPI: 266.8315
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.21%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: New Caney, TX (Plan 1907 Modeled Plan)
• Financial info: List price $224,995

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family home (new construction)Listed as Plan 1907 ModeledActive status
• Construction: Built as part of 2026 inventory (new plan)
• Exterior features: Living area of 1907New construction (Plan 1907 Modeled)

Interior

• Kitchen: Plan includes standard kitchen (appliances not specified)
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (per plan)