3012 La Estancia Ln · Houston, TX 77093

$154,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2006 3,001 sqft lot Est $242k · 36% under $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +8.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to this charming property with a natural color palette that creates a sense of calm throughout the home. The additional rooms offer flexible living space for your needs, while the primary bathroom boasts good under-sink storage. Enjoy the privacy of the fenced-in backyard, perfect for entertaining or relaxing in the fresh air. With fresh interior paint, this home is ready and waiting for you to make it yours. Don't miss out on this perfect opportunity to live in this inviting space! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

Key facts

• Spacious kitchen
• Generous backyard
• 3,001 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING SPACES
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• GENEROUS BACKYARD
• EASY ACCESS TO DINING
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by JellyBird HOA Management, LLC; Annual association fee of $600

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2006; Slab foundation
• Construction: Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot with other distinguishing features

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the second floor; Bedroom on the first floor; Two additional bedrooms on the second floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: 4 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $154k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $322 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $154k).
• Recommended offer: $152k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Henry Middle (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #1,641 of 1,662 statewide, top 99%, 690 students, 98% FRL); Houston Math Science And Technology Center (math 9% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,507 of 1,632 statewide, top 93%, 2,779 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 12% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $43k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($152k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $151,690 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.96%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $241,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2919 La Estancia Ln	0.09mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,562 (-2%)	5mo	$141,000	$90	84
3022 La Estancia Ln	0.03mi	4/2.0	1,590 (0%)	21mo	$195,000	$123	81
3034 La Estancia Ln	0.06mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,590 (0%)	14mo	$141,000	$89	80
2320 Colley St	0.55mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,510 (-5%)	2mo	$189,999	$126	59
2922 Hohl St	0.31mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,720 (+8%)	14mo	$230,000	$134	53
8832 Curry Rd	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,738 (+9%)	9mo	$274,000	$158	41
8828 Curry Rd	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,738 (+9%)	13mo	$279,000	$161	38
10007 Raymondville Rd	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (-15%)	1mo	$205,000	$152	37
2630 Kenco St	0.72mi	4/2.0	1,721 (+8%)	18mo	$130,000	$76	37
8830 Curry Rd	0.62mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,738 (+9%)	15mo	$279,000	$161	36
10023 Raymondville Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,454 (-9%)	17mo	$250,000	$172	32
2322 Hitchcock St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,375 (-14%)	13mo	$235,000	$171	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.31% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $472
• Equity at exit: $22,962

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $47,934
• Equity at exit: $13,315

Cash invested: $43,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77093

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,004 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$808
• Tax from tax record: −$339 /mo · $4,070/yr
• Insurance: −$64
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$421
• Net cashflow: $322

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,596

Max offer price $154,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,500
• Closing costs: $4,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2920 La Estancia Ln Houston, TX	5.0	2.0	1562	$1,761	$1.13	7d	1	0.09mi
3208 Bostic St Unit 1254540P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1603	$3,691	$2.30	2d	1	0.91mi
8326 Curry Rd Unit 1228882P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1614	$2,878	$1.78	7d	1	0.93mi
8322 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1599	$2,500	$1.56	43d	1	0.94mi
8320 Curry Rd Unit 1391267P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1550	$5,134	$3.31	1d	1	0.95mi
8320 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1558	$8,950	$5.74	22d	1	0.95mi
8318 Curry Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,299	$1.48	43d	1	0.95mi
2623 Huntington Creek Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$2,299	$1.48	24d	1	1.17mi
4326 Plaag St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	43d	1	1.37mi
965 Tidwell Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,309	$1.14	20d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $154,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $154,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $154,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $154,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $154,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $154,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $154,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $154,000 Active 16 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $154,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $154,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $154,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $154,000 Active 9 DOM
13. 2026-05-22
    listed $159,000 Active
14. 2024-07-02
    soldstatus
15. 2024-06-28
    soldstatus Sold 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Escape to this charming property with a natural color palette that creates a sense of calm throughout the home. The additional rooms offer flexible living space for your needs, while the primary bathroom boasts good under-sink storage. Enjoy the privacy of the fenced-in backyard, perfect for entertaining or relaxing in the fresh air. With fresh interior paint, this home is ready and waiting for you to make it yours. Don't miss out on this perfect opportunity to live in this inviting space! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

16. 2024-05-27
    status Pending 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Escape to this charming property with a natural color palette that creates a sense of calm throughout the home. The additional rooms offer flexible living space for your needs, while the primary bathroom boasts good under-sink storage. Enjoy the privacy of the fenced-in backyard, perfect for entertaining or relaxing in the fresh air. With fresh interior paint, this home is ready and waiting for you to make it yours. Don't miss out on this perfect opportunity to live in this inviting space! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

17. 2024-04-25
    price $197,000 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Escape to this charming property with a natural color palette that creates a sense of calm throughout the home. The additional rooms offer flexible living space for your needs, while the primary bathroom boasts good under-sink storage. Enjoy the privacy of the fenced-in backyard, perfect for entertaining or relaxing in the fresh air. With fresh interior paint, this home is ready and waiting for you to make it yours. Don't miss out on this perfect opportunity to live in this inviting space! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

18. 2024-04-11
    price $200,000 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Escape to this charming property with a natural color palette that creates a sense of calm throughout the home. The additional rooms offer flexible living space for your needs, while the primary bathroom boasts good under-sink storage. Enjoy the privacy of the fenced-in backyard, perfect for entertaining or relaxing in the fresh air. With fresh interior paint, this home is ready and waiting for you to make it yours. Don't miss out on this perfect opportunity to live in this inviting space! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

19. 2024-03-28
    price $203,000 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Escape to this charming property with a natural color palette that creates a sense of calm throughout the home. The additional rooms offer flexible living space for your needs, while the primary bathroom boasts good under-sink storage. Enjoy the privacy of the fenced-in backyard, perfect for entertaining or relaxing in the fresh air. With fresh interior paint, this home is ready and waiting for you to make it yours. Don't miss out on this perfect opportunity to live in this inviting space! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

20. 2024-03-05
    listed $205,000 Active 559-char remark

    Show marketing remark (559 chars)

    Escape to this charming property with a natural color palette that creates a sense of calm throughout the home. The additional rooms offer flexible living space for your needs, while the primary bathroom boasts good under-sink storage. Enjoy the privacy of the fenced-in backyard, perfect for entertaining or relaxing in the fresh air. With fresh interior paint, this home is ready and waiting for you to make it yours. Don't miss out on this perfect opportunity to live in this inviting space! This home has been virtually staged to illustrate its potential.

21. 2017-04-13
    soldstatus
22. 2016-06-08
    soldstatus
23. 2012-12-09
    historical
24. 2012-09-11
    listed $79,500
25. 2008-01-12
    historical
26. 2007-08-05
    listed $129,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,070 · $339/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,070 · $339/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,626
• − Property taxes: −$4,070
• − Insurance: −$770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,924
• − Management: −$1,924
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,480
• Taxable income: $1,651
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$396
• After-tax cash flow: $3,468/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,407
• Household income: $46,766
• Rent vs Own: 43.8% rent · 56.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1815.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 82% Two or more races 24% Black 11% White 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 30% English-only · Spanish 70%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -30.53%
• Current HPI: 277.4914
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.31%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+22.4% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $159,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-06-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2024-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2024-04-25 Price Changed $197,000 HARMLS
• 2024-04-11 Price Changed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-28 Price Changed $203,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-05 Listed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2017-04-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2016-06-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-12-09 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-09-11 Listed $79,500 HARMLS
• 2008-01-12 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2007-08-05 Listed $129,900 HARMLS

Property tax history

+5.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,070 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.