727 E 3rd St · McGregor, TX 76657

$149,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,113 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 30 Days on market

Built 1947 6,011 sqft lot $135/sqft · 31% below area Est $218k · 31% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• New plumbing
• New flooring

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW PLUMBING
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW PAINT
• NEW VINYL SIDING
• UPDATED APPLIANCES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Listing status: Active Under Contract; Possession at closing/funding; Photos available (24)
• Financial info: Loan type: Treat as clear; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Electricity available; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1947; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.138 acre); Directions: West on 84 to McGregor, left at the first stop light (Main Street), left at 3rd Street; home will be on the right; Subdivision: HALE JOE

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms, all on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Granite counters; One living area; One dining area; Total room count: 4
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $143 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (7.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (7.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in McGregor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#310 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, employment C-, commute D+.
• Mcgregor ISD (town): math 37% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #429 of 826 in TX (top 52%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Mcgregor El (math 33% / reading 43%, grade F, #1,709 of 4,322 statewide, top 40%, 454 students, 67% FRL); Isbill J H (math 38% / reading 37%, grade F, #736 of 1,662 statewide, top 45%, 338 students, 63% FRL); Mcgregor H S (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #509 of 1,632 statewide, top 34%, 418 students, 58% FRL) — zoned schools at 63% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 158 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,014 units permitted in McLennan County in 2024 (200 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McLennan County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($148k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1947 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,023 (7.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1947 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.09%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $218,352
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: -31.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
727 E 3rd St	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,113 (0%)	0mo	$149,900	$135	91
217 Hayes St	0.32mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,136 (+2%)	9mo	$159,000	$140	65
103 Pullen St	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,191 (+7%)	11mo	$224,800	$189	62
403 Garfield St	0.29mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,200 (+8%)	13mo	$220,000	$183	54
502 W 6th St	0.74mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,208 (+8%)	5mo	$143,000	$118	42
697 Park St	0.69mi	2/1.0	964 (-13%)	12mo	$199,000	$206	36
107 Garfield St	0.31mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,266 (+14%)	23mo	$240,000	$190	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-15,212
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-1,651
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76657

• Home prices YoY: -27.0%
• Active inventory: 158
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,380 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,185/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $143

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,199

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $228	-5% $185	+0% $143	+5% $101	+10% $58
Rent	-10% $34	-5% $89	+0% $143	+5% $198	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $219	-0.5pp $181	base $143	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $65

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
651 E McGregor Dr McGregor, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	950	$1,200	$1.26	15d	3	0.28mi
706 S Main St McGregor, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,650	$1.25	15d	1	0.64mi
716 S Main St #718 McGregor, TX	2.0	1.0	1404	$1,375	$0.98	45d	1	0.65mi
716 S Main St McGregor, TX	3.0	2.0	1315	$1,315	$1.00	22d	1	0.66mi
718 S Main St Unit 718 McGregor, TX	2.0	1.0	1021	$1,375	$1.35	45d	1	0.66mi
117 Bowie St McGregor, TX	3.0	1.0	905	$1,695	$1.87	15d	1	0.98mi
207 Laurel Ln McGregor, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	15d	1	1.21mi
400 Johnson Dr Unit 101 McGregor, TX	2.0	1.0	745	$1,050	$1.41	15d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-30
   status $149,900 Pending 30 DOM
2. 2026-05-17
   historical Active Option Contract 319-char remark
3. 2026-05-13
   price $149,900 319-char remark
4. 2026-05-02
   price $159,900 319-char remark
5. 2026-05-02
   price $149,900 319-char remark
6. 2026-04-29
   listed $179,900 Active 319-char remark
7. 2025-10-28
   soldstatus Closed
8. 2025-10-01
   price $59,900
9. 2025-09-02
   listed $69,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,185 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,743 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,558/yr (+$130/mo · 131.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,185
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,325
• − Management: −$1,325
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$780
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$187
• After-tax cash flow: $1,904/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mcgregor ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829820
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $46,579
• Composite: 33.74/100
• National rank: #5373
• State rank: #429 of 826 in TX

Livability — McGregor

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #310
• US rank: #6968

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: McGregor, TX
• City population: 12,770
• Population (ZIP): 12,770

Population outlook (McLennan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 264,191 people
• By 2030: 273,578 · +3.6%
• By 2040: 291,506 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 308,044 · +16.6%
• By 2075: 349,648 · +32.3%
• By 2100: 364,779 · +38.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 21% Two or more races 7% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 15%

Political lean MEDSL · McLennan

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 34.0% · R 64.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: -23.9pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+23.4 2016: R+27.1 2012: R+29.8 2008: R+23.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -82.14%
• Current HPI: 222.0905
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+114.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-05-30 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-17 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $159,900 NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $149,900 NTREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2025-10-28 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2025-10-01 Price Changed $59,900 NTREIS
• 2025-09-02 Listed $69,900 NTREIS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,185 · -30.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.