31234 Harp Ridge Dr · Fulshear, TX 77441

$291,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,544 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $108/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ESTIMATED CLOSING DATE IS JULY 2026. Welcome to the Dalton floorplan by D. R. Horton! This one-story home offers 1,544 sq. ft. of thoughtfully space, featuring 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. As you enter, you’ll pass the guest bedroom before the home opens into an inviting open-concept living, dining, and kitchen. The kitchen boasts granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinetry, all complemented by large windows that fill the space with natural light. The primary suite includes a walk-in closet, standing shower and dual sinks. The 2 additional bedrooms are conveniently located off the main living area. Vinyl flooring flows throughout the home for a modern look

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Vinyl flooring
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• STANDING SHOWER
• DUAL SINKS
• VINYL FLOORING

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Inframark; Annual association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Home prewired for security; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; New construction (under construction); Single-story (entry level: first); Full ownership
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick, stone, and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Deck; Patio; Private yard; Fenced backyard

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas range; Microwave; Oven; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Breakfast bar / open to family area
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom (first level) — 16 x 10; Bedroom (first level) — 12 x 10; Bedroom (first level) — 10 x 11; Bedroom (first level) — 10 x 12
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Double vanity in bath
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Double vanity; Entrance foyer; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Programmable thermostat; Ventilation for improved indoor air quality
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Tankless water heater

🏗️ New construction. The $291,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $274,832.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $292k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $17 ($202/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (5.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $256k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $256k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.2% in Fulshear — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#430 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Dean Leaman J H School (math 59% / reading 56%, grade B, #206 of 1,662 statewide, top 13%, 2,191 students, 32% FRL); Fulshear H S (math 52% / reading 70%, grade C+, #258 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 2,464 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1213 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $256,221 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.26%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $274,832
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31206 Bentley Pines Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,544 (0%)	0mo	$279,990	$181	100
3615 Turnpike Dr	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,544 (0%)	0mo	$289,990	$188	99
3638 Turnpike Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-1%)	1mo	$274,990	$179	90
3827 Turnpike Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,535 (-1%)	0mo	$274,990	$179	85
3610 Turnpike Dr	0.02mi	4/2.0	1,717 (+11%)	2mo	$306,990	$179	79
30202 Fryers Field Ct	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,717 (+11%)	1mo	$304,990	$178	76
30207 Fryers Field Ct	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,717 (+11%)	1mo	$294,990	$172	75
3731 Turnpike Dr	0.13mi	4/2.0	1,717 (+11%)	1mo	$299,990	$175	75
3818 Turnpike Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,717 (+11%)	0mo	$294,990	$172	73
3811 Turnpike Dr	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,717 (+11%)	1mo	$294,990	$172	73
3738 Marino Mile Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,717 (+11%)	1mo	$289,990	$169	72
3215 Zephyr Park Ln	0.66mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,685 (+9%)	1mo	$280,000	$166	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-50,865
• Equity at exit: $40,978

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.07×
• Total profit: $-71,503
• Equity at exit: $23,762

Cash invested: $76,953 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1213
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,562 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,441
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,122/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$108
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$538
• Net cashflow: $17

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,541

Max offer price $274,832

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $207	-5% $112	+0% $17	+5% $-78	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-186	-5% $-84	+0% $17	+5% $118	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $87	base $17	+0.5pp $-54	+1.0pp $-127

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,708
• Closing costs: $8,245
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3615 Texas Heritage Pkwy Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$2,366	$2.30	1d	38	0.40mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,383	$1.39	1d	25	0.59mi
30131 Ousel Falls Ln Brookshire, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$2,150	$1.37	44d	1	0.75mi
29403 Cayman Canyon Way Katy, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0	1679	$2,292	$1.37	2d	17	0.91mi
3711 Daintree Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1892	$2,101	$1.11	20d	1	1.18mi
29202 Jarvis Bay Pass Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1563	$2,200	$1.41	5d	1	1.30mi
29655 Jordan Crossing Blvd Brookshire, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$2,434	$2.33	2d	30	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $108 · $1,296/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $291,990 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $291,990 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $291,990 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $291,990 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $291,990 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,747
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,395
• − Property taxes: −$4,122
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,460
• − Management: −$2,460
• − HOA: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$7,995
• Taxable loss: −$4,355
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,045
• After-tax cash flow: $1,248/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a good roof, exterior, interior walls, and flooring. The home is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that would significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and functionality
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances functionality

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping and irrigation system — Improves curb appeal and enhances property value ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Enhances aesthetics and functionality ↑
• Both New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and enhances functionality ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fulshear

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #430
• US rank: #8901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 41,324
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $291,990 HARMLS