521 Alcove Ave · Bellefontaine Neighbors, MO 63137

$82,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 1958 7,501 sqft lot Est $119k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome home! This is your perfect chance to buy this 3 bed, 1 bath ranch located in a quiet neighborhood. Make this one your home or next investment. It has great potential for future rental income. Large lot size of 7,000+ sf with a nice sized backyard that is great for entertaining guests. Schedule your showings today!

Key facts

• Quiet street
• Sunporch style area
• 7,501 sq ft lot

Tags

• CLEAN AND DRY BASEMENT
• SUNPORCH STYLE AREA
• HUGE FENCED IN BACKYARD
• GARDEN ALREADY STARTED
• QUIET STREET
• EASY ACCESS TO HIGHWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $515 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $80k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.7% vs local median 9.5% in Bellefontaine Neighbors — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#592 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Glasgow Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 269 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $573 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $42k (34%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $83k implies a 66% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $80,413 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 26.60%
• DSCR: 2.18
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $118,560
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10066 Dorothy Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0 (-1)	916 (+0%)	1mo	$99,900	$109	87
534 Alcove Ave	0.04mi	3/1.0	996 (+9%)	3mo	$104,200	$105	80
10301 Renfrew Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0	844 (-8%)	3mo	$110,000	$130	69
10555 Gourock Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	918 (+1%)	3mo	$120,000	$131	68
321 Caithness Rd	0.61mi	3/1.0	902 (-1%)	3mo	$47,700	$53	68
10307 Seaton Dr	0.67mi	3/1.5	932 (+2%)	1mo	$142,000	$152	62
10539 Renfrew Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0	854 (-6%)	2mo	$119,900	$140	61
10519 Renfrew Dr	0.53mi	3/1.5	982 (+8%)	2mo	$95,000	$97	58
10130 Newbold Dr	0.64mi	3/1.0	984 (+8%)	2mo	$144,900	$147	56
363 Shepley Dr	0.67mi	3/1.0	854 (-6%)	3mo	$110,000	$129	56
9737 Calumet Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	840 (-8%)	3mo	$149,500	$178	48
1033 Bakewell Dr	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	992 (+9%)	3mo	$99,900	$101	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.06×
• Total profit: $24,522
• Equity at exit: $12,361

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.72×
• Total profit: $86,446
• Equity at exit: $7,168

Cash invested: $23,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63137

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,379 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,269/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $515

Break-even live

Break-even rent $728

Max offer price $82,900

Occupancy floor 58%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $561	-5% $538	+0% $515	+5% $491	+10% $468
Rent	-10% $406	-5% $460	+0% $515	+5% $569	+10% $624
Rate	-1.0pp $556	-0.5pp $536	base $515	+0.5pp $493	+1.0pp $471

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,725
• Closing costs: $2,487
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10066 Dorothy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	916	$1,225	$1.34	23d	1	0.12mi
10201 Gourock Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	886	$1,275	$1.44	45d	1	0.12mi
10401 Hobkirk Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1050	$1,500	$1.43	18d	1	0.26mi
10213 Durness Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	932	$1,225	$1.31	45d	1	0.27mi
9943 Lilac Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1086	$1,000	$0.92	45d	1	0.35mi
815 Bella Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	864	$1,275	$1.48	45d	1	0.36mi
10203 Trio Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,435	$1.57	17d	1	0.37mi
10327 Renfrew Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	844	$1,199	$1.42	45d	1	0.38mi
743 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	932	$1,025	$1.10	8d	1	0.38mi
9924 Gloucester Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	992	$1,565	$1.58	11d	1	0.41mi
1205 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	901	$1,325	$1.47	24d	1	0.41mi
1205 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	901	$1,350	$1.50	45d	1	0.41mi
10309 Galloway Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	892	$1,295	$1.45	13d	1	0.44mi
255 Chambers Rd St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	45d	1	0.45mi
10421 Gardo Ct Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,395	$1.40	16d	1	0.46mi
437 Lancashire Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1082	$1,395	$1.29	45d	1	0.49mi
416 Crawford Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	844	$1,499	$1.78	24d	1	0.50mi
10063 Northgate Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1054	$1,200	$1.14	45d	1	0.54mi
10524 Durness Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,250	$1.25	45d	1	0.54mi
432 Midlothian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1120	$1,350	$1.21	11d	1	0.55mi
10519 Renfrew Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	982	$1,399	$1.42	45d	1	0.55mi
457 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,350	$1.58	24d	1	0.56mi
10019 Northgate Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	991	$1,150	$1.16	23d	1	0.56mi
9811 Lilac Dr Unit I St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	705	$799	$1.13	45d	1	0.59mi
325 Caithness Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,540	$1.80	45d	1	0.62mi
325 Caithness Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,425	$1.67	13d	1	0.62mi
312 Banff Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,175	$1.38	24d	1	0.64mi
305 Lancashire Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,100	$1.29	19d	1	0.65mi
344 Midridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	810	$1,053	$1.30	45d	1	0.65mi
9746 Diamond Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	910	$1,275	$1.40	45d	1	0.66mi
317 Cameron Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,350	$1.58	24d	1	0.66mi
409 Shepley Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,095	$1.28	5d	1	0.67mi
10518 Gretna Cir Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1082	$1,450	$1.34	24d	1	0.67mi
329 Midlothian Rd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	854	$1,195	$1.40	4d	1	0.67mi
623 Ludlow Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	840	$1,199	$1.43	24d	1	0.67mi
1009 Bliss Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,400	$1.54	45d	1	0.69mi
10527 Prestwick Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	854	$1,395	$1.63	8d	1	0.71mi
460 Bluff Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1002	$1,300	$1.30	45d	1	0.73mi
10432 Balmoral Dr Saint Louis, MO	4.0	1.0	826	$1,600	$1.94	3d	1	0.73mi
10200 Tappan Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	912	$1,450	$1.59	17d	1	0.74mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2025-11-10
   status Pending
2. 2025-11-05
   price $82,900
3. 2025-10-08
   price $99,000
4. 2025-09-30
   price $120,000
5. 2025-09-18
   listed $125,000 Active
6. 2023-05-08
   soldstatus
7. 2023-05-03
   soldstatus Closed 324-char remark

   Show marketing remark (324 chars)

   Welcome home! This is your perfect chance to buy this 3 bed, 1 bath ranch located in a quiet neighborhood. Make this one your home or next investment. It has great potential for future rental income. Large lot size of 7,000+ sf with a nice sized backyard that is great for entertaining guests. Schedule your showings today!

8. 2023-04-10
   status Pending 324-char remark

   Show marketing remark (324 chars)

   Welcome home! This is your perfect chance to buy this 3 bed, 1 bath ranch located in a quiet neighborhood. Make this one your home or next investment. It has great potential for future rental income. Large lot size of 7,000+ sf with a nice sized backyard that is great for entertaining guests. Schedule your showings today!

9. 2023-04-10
   listed $110,000 Active 324-char remark

   Show marketing remark (324 chars)

   Welcome home! This is your perfect chance to buy this 3 bed, 1 bath ranch located in a quiet neighborhood. Make this one your home or next investment. It has great potential for future rental income. Large lot size of 7,000+ sf with a nice sized backyard that is great for entertaining guests. Schedule your showings today!

10. 1997-05-29
    soldstatus $50,000
11. 1992-07-16
    soldstatus
12. 1958-09-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,269 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,550
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,644
• − Property taxes: −$1,269
• − Insurance: −$414
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,324
• − Management: −$1,324
• − Depreciation: −$2,412
• Taxable income: $5,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,239
• After-tax cash flow: $4,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bellefontaine Neighbors

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #20944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellefontaine Neighbors, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,684
• Household income: $43,422
• Rent vs Own: 52.2% rent · 47.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1863.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 82% White 13% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.70%
• Current HPI: 130.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+65.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $82,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $99,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $120,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-18 Listed $125,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-05-08 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-05-03 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-10 Listed $110,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 1992-07-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1958-09-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,269 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.