1512 Thompson St #3 · Houston, TX 77007

$415,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,267 sqft · SingleFamily · 196 Days on market

Built 2007 Good condition 1,507 sqft lot $183/sqft · 18% below area Est $508k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1512 Thompson #3. This beautiful Mediterranean-influenced home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a spacious primary suite with a light-filled quartz countertop bathroom, updated kitchen with quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances, gas cooktop, and attached dining room. The living room is bright with plenty of windows and a stylish fireplace. Perfect for families or roommates, the home also includes large closets, utility room with washer/dryer, and is part of a small gated community near I-10, shops, and restaurants. Don't miss out on this opportunity, schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• Gas cooktop
• Attached dining room
• Updated kitchen

Tags

• MEDITERRANEAN INFLUENCED HOME
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOP BATHROOM
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GAS COOKTOP
• ATTACHED DINING ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $415k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $313 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $403k (3.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $365k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 646 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($145k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 196 days — a 12% lower offer ($365k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $365,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 196 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.23%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $507,969
• List price: $415,000
• Delta: -18.30%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4409 Schuler St Unit A	0.15mi	3/2.5	2,232 (-2%)	0mo	$499,000	$224	90
4224 Schuler St	0.10mi	3/3.5	2,213 (-2%)	0mo	$490,000	$221	87
4115 Schuler St	0.14mi	3/3.5	2,173 (-4%)	0mo	$475,000	$219	82
4319 Rose St	0.41mi	3/3.5	2,273 (+0%)	0mo	$565,000	$249	76
611 Hartman St	0.58mi	3/2.5	2,274 (+0%)	0mo	$750,000	$330	72
2103 Patterson St	0.33mi	3/3.5	2,124 (-6%)	1mo	$455,000	$214	70
621 Rutland St Unit D	0.54mi	3/3.5	2,226 (-2%)	1mo	$629,900	$283	67
4301 Gibson St	0.55mi	3/3.5	2,374 (+5%)	1mo	$549,000	$231	62
4317 Blossom St Unit B	0.50mi	3/3.5	2,405 (+6%)	1mo	$668,000	$278	62
733 Ashland St Unit C	0.68mi	3/2.5	2,370 (+4%)	0mo	$1,100,000	$464	61
316 E 5th St	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,451 (+8%)	0mo	$879,000	$359	55
5218A Rose St	0.74mi	3/3.5	2,380 (+5%)	0mo	$600,000	$252	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-59,070
• Equity at exit: $61,878

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-71,144
• Equity at exit: $35,882

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77007

• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 646
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,026 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$519 /mo · $6,225/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$845
• Net cashflow: $313

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,630

Max offer price $415,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4311 Marina St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2328	$3,599	$1.55	44d	1	0.07mi
4508 Maxie St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1700	$3,003	$1.77	15d	1	0.17mi
4510 Inker St Houston, TX	4.0	4.0	2293	$4,500	$1.96	44d	1	0.17mi
1221 Bonner St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2252	$3,200	$1.42	44d	1	0.20mi
4444 Center St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2121	$3,200	$1.51	44d	1	0.26mi
4608 Nett St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2261	$3,750	$1.66	44d	1	0.30mi
915 Thompson St Unit 915 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,500	$2.66	24d	1	0.34mi
917 Thompson St Unit 917 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,000	$2.50	24d	1	0.34mi
913 Thompson St #913 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,500	$2.66	24d	1	0.35mi
911 Thompson St #911 Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3200	$8,500	$2.66	24d	1	0.35mi
4917 Nolda St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	1764	$5,000	$2.83	24d	1	0.45mi
5108 Larkin St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2108	$2,850	$1.35	44d	1	0.62mi
5237 Center St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2284	$2,995	$1.31	44d	1	0.71mi
225 S Heights Blvd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$3,085	$2.60	2d	18	0.73mi
5305 Nett St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2104	$2,950	$1.40	24d	1	0.75mi
5235 Petty St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	2532	$3,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.79mi
5336 Darling St Unit 1225767P Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	2292	$5,570	$2.43	8d	1	0.88mi
5610 Schuler St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2614	$3,111	$1.19	5d	1	0.91mi
600 Studemont St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1227	$2,799	$2.28	3d	24	0.93mi
543 T C Jester Blvd Unit 1225766P Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2389	$5,222	$2.19	16d	1	0.99mi
2210 Radcliffe St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2066	$2,716	$1.31	8d	1	1.01mi
2103 Radcliffe St Unit 1225772P Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1797	$4,729	$2.63	8d	1	1.01mi
5811 Maxie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2226	$3,000	$1.35	44d	1	1.02mi
3333 Allen Pkwy Unit 1000 Houston, TX	2.0	2.5	1860	$4,500	$2.42	44d	1	1.03mi
5427 Kansas St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2156	$2,700	$1.25	44d	1	1.03mi
3131 Memorial Ct Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	1336	$3,418	$2.56	2d	32	1.06mi
100 Detering St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1162	$3,486	$3.00	3d	26	1.06mi
707 Marston St Unit 510 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2310	$12,482	$5.40	3d	1	1.08mi
5201 Memorial Dr Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1071	$3,361	$3.14	2d	21	1.09mi
920 Westcott St Houston, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1175	$3,306	$2.81	1d	29	1.12mi
5530 Kiam St Unit 1019540P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2680	$15,799	$5.90	44d	1	1.15mi
5530 Kiam St Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	2688	$9,750	$3.63	44d	1	1.15mi
716 Waugh Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1130	$4,080	$3.61	1d	29	1.17mi
5620 Petty St Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	2891	$8,750	$3.03	44d	1	1.21mi
5620 Petty St Unit 1019538P Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	2884	$16,259	$5.64	22d	1	1.21mi
929 Westcott St Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1375	$9,263	$6.74	3d	22	1.22mi
1010 Waugh Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0–2.5	1075	$4,657	$4.33	3d	59	1.27mi
1116 Woodland St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	2400	$4,000	$1.67	44d	1	1.27mi
1027 Gross St Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	3035	$5,800	$1.91	44d	1	1.28mi
2121 Allen Pkwy Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1207	$3,085	$2.55	2d	42	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $415,000 Active 196 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $415,000 Active 195 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $415,000 Active 194 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $415,000 Active 193 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $415,000 Active 191 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $415,000 Active 187 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $415,000 Active 186 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $415,000 Active 185 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $415,000 Active 182 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $439,000 Active 179 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $439,000 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-02-24
    price $439,000 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    Welcome to 1512 Thompson #3. This beautiful Mediterranean-influenced home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a spacious primary suite with a light-filled quartz countertop bathroom, updated kitchen with quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances, gas cooktop, and attached dining room. The living room is bright with plenty of windows and a stylish fireplace. Perfect for families or roommates, the home also includes large closets, utility room with washer/dryer, and is part of a small gated community near I-10, shops, and restaurants. Don't miss out on this opportunity, schedule your tour today!

13. 2025-12-04
    listed $450,000 Active 604-char remark

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    Welcome to 1512 Thompson #3. This beautiful Mediterranean-influenced home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a spacious primary suite with a light-filled quartz countertop bathroom, updated kitchen with quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances, gas cooktop, and attached dining room. The living room is bright with plenty of windows and a stylish fireplace. Perfect for families or roommates, the home also includes large closets, utility room with washer/dryer, and is part of a small gated community near I-10, shops, and restaurants. Don't miss out on this opportunity, schedule your tour today!

14. 2025-12-04
    historical

    Show marketing remark (604 chars)

    Welcome to 1512 Thompson #3. This beautiful Mediterranean-influenced home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, a spacious primary suite with a light-filled quartz countertop bathroom, updated kitchen with quartz countertops and stainless steel appliances, gas cooktop, and attached dining room. The living room is bright with plenty of windows and a stylish fireplace. Perfect for families or roommates, the home also includes large closets, utility room with washer/dryer, and is part of a small gated community near I-10, shops, and restaurants. Don't miss out on this opportunity, schedule your tour today!

15. 2025-10-08
    historical
16. 2025-10-08
    listed $469,000 Active
17. 2025-07-09
    listed $479,000 Active
18. 2021-02-05
    historical
19. 2020-10-08
    listed $439,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$6,225
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,865
• − Management: −$3,865
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$3,035
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$728
• After-tax cash flow: $4,481/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Mediterranean-inspired home is in good condition with recent updates, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value
• Both update flooring — modernizes the home and improves rental appeal
• Both install smart home devices — increases home's marketability and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both update flooring — modernizes the home and improves rental appeal ↑
• Both install smart home devices — increases home's marketability and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 47,808
• Household income: $144,911
• Rent vs Own: 53.8% rent · 46.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1812.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 11% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 4% Chinese 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.42%
• Current HPI: 159.8157
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.83%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.2% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $439,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Listed $450,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Listed $469,000 HARMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $479,000 HARMLS
• 2021-02-05 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-10-08 Listed $439,900 HARMLS