125 Downy Pl · Bristol, VA 24201

$219,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,262 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1988 0.25 ac lot Est $193k · 13% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +1.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in the well-established Bellehaven neighborhood, this move-in ready, one level home offers 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and plenty of recent updates throughout. Enjoy new flooring, a heat pump installed in 2023, and a roof that's less than 10 years old. Situated on a quiet cul-de-sac, the home features a fenced backyard perfect for pets, play, or entertaining. With its combination of updates, space, and desirable location, this is a home you won't want to miss. Call for your appointment today!

Key facts

• Recent updates
• Heat pump installed
• Quiet cul-de-sac

Tags

• BELLEHAVEN NEIGHBORHOOD
• RECENT UPDATES
• HEAT PUMP INSTALLED
• FENCED BACKYARD
• QUIET CUL-DE-SAC

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Back yard fencing; Shingle roof; RV/boat storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Range; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Heat pump cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher, Range, Refrigerator; Laminate flooring; 8 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $166 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $188k (14.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $188k (14.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.9% in Bristol — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#140 in VA, #4,544 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, commute F, employment F.
• Bristol City Public School District (urban): math 57% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #53 of 131 in VA (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virginia Middle (math 56% / reading 71%, grade B+, #128 of 342 statewide, top 39%, 487 students, 101% FRL); Virginia High (math 62% / reading 77%, grade B, #159 of 319 statewide, top 53%, 637 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 58% district-wide (42 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 15 units permitted in Bristol city in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bristol County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $104k; list at $219k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $187,569 (14.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.20%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.25%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $193,086
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Canterbury Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,382 (+10%)	3mo	$254,500	$184	71
153 Brandon Ln	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,264 (+0%)	4mo	$265,000	$210	70
288 Independence Dr	0.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,253 (-1%)	5mo	$240,000	$192	69
139 Brandon Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,313 (+4%)	2mo	$265,000	$202	65
1200 King Mill Pike	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,310 (+4%)	14mo	$288,000	$220	59
529 Beaverview Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,238 (-2%)	10mo	$157,000	$127	51
172 Jane Ln	0.66mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,350 (+7%)	0mo	$165,000	$122	48
184 Center St	0.51mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,337 (+6%)	10mo	$175,000	$131	47
227 Seminole Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,237 (-2%)	14mo	$165,000	$133	40
165 Lawson Rd	0.63mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,344 (+6%)	22mo	$197,500	$147	32
1549 Kings Mill Pike	0.61mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-14%)	9mo	$150,000	$137	30
559 Beaverview Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-14%)	14mo	$166,500	$153	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-25,011
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-8,548
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24201

• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,876 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$76 /mo · $914/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$394
• Net cashflow: $166

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,666

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $290	-5% $228	+0% $166	+5% $104	+10% $42
Rent	-10% $18	-5% $92	+0% $166	+5% $240	+10% $314
Rate	-1.0pp $276	-0.5pp $222	base $166	+0.5pp $109	+1.0pp $51

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1733 Dunlap St Bristol, VA	3.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	14d	1	0.97mi
201 Springdale Rd Bristol, TN	3.0	2.0	1635	$2,750	$1.68	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 504-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $219,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $914 · $76/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,796 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$882/yr (+$74/mo · 96.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,508
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$914
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,801
• − Management: −$1,801
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$1,740
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$418
• After-tax cash flow: $2,409/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bristol City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100450
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $33,978
• Composite: 52.4/100
• National rank: #1579
• State rank: #53 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bristol

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #4544

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bristol, VA
• City population: 16,039
• Population (ZIP): 16,039

Population outlook (Bristol County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 16,113 people
• By 2030: 15,510 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 14,121 · -12.4%
• By 2050: 12,847 · -20.3%
• By 2075: 9,870 · -38.7%
• By 2100: 7,883 · -51.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 1% Iranian 0%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Bristol

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.7) · D 29.8% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.6pp toward R · 2008: -26.0pp · 2024: -39.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.7 2020: R+38.9 2016: R+43.8 2012: R+31.1 2008: R+26.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -206.40%
• Current HPI: 196.2099
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+110.8% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-18 Listed $219,000 TVRMLS
• 2005-01-07 Sold (Public Records) $103,900 Public Records