4810 Orange Blossom St · Oak Trail Shores, TX 76048

$174,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,920 sqft · Manufactured public records · 422 Days on market

Built 2007 6,970 sqft lot $91/sqft · 9% below area Est $192k · 9% under $8/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +6.3/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This one is a very nice mobile home located on an oversized lot!! This home has a ton of room, the rooms are all very good sized! It features 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths and an open living, kitchen and dining room area! This home is move in ready and priced to sell! The lot is oversized and has a lot of room to run around and enjoy it! Its located towards the end of a quiet Cul de sac street. If you are looking for a home that will not break the bank, then come take a look at this one as see if its the one for you!! The HOA community has a boat ramp, community dock and pool that included with the required membership!

Key facts

• Community dock
• Pool
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• OPEN LIVING KITCHEN DINING
• QUIET CUL DE SAC
• BOAT RAMP
• COMMUNITY DOCK
• POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $174k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $374 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
• Recommended offer: $153k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 5.9% in Oak Trail Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,187 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Granbury ISD (town): math 46% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #237 of 826 in TX (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 929 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 1d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 125 units permitted in Hood County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hood County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 422 days — a 12% lower offer ($153k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $153,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 422 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.13% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.20%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $191,946
• List price: $174,000
• Delta: -9.35%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4813 Peachtree St	0.14mi	4/2.0	1,768 (-8%)	2mo	$335,000	$189	75
3101 Hilltop Rd	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,768 (-8%)	0mo	$199,000	$113	65
2806 Hilltop Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,015 (+5%)	13mo	$260,000	$129	58
5357 Chief Ct	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,048 (+7%)	2mo	$390,000	$190	55
4505 Appletree Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-10%)	0mo	$249,900	$144	53
3211 Evergreen Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,706 (-11%)	7mo	$179,900	$105	49
5425 Lake View Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,736 (-10%)	11mo	$187,000	$108	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-8,075
• Equity at exit: $25,944

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $9,105
• Equity at exit: $15,044

Cash invested: $48,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76048

• Home prices YoY: -23.4%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 929
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,965 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$912
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,229/yr
• Insurance: −$72
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $374

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,492

Max offer price $174,000

Occupancy floor 76%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,500
• Closing costs: $5,220
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5418 Lake View Dr Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$1,300	$1.01	43d	1	0.62mi
4321 Terri Lee Ln Granbury, TX	4.0	2.0	1387	$2,075	$1.50	1d	1	0.71mi
5609 Arkansas Trl Granbury, TX	3.0	2.0	1920	$1,950	$1.02	1d	1	0.95mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $174,000 Active 422 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $174,000 Active 421 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $174,000 Active 420 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $174,000 Active 419 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $174,000 Active 417 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $174,000 Active 413 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $174,000 Active 412 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $174,000 Active 411 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $174,000 Active 408 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $174,000 Active 407 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,000 Active 406 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $174,000 Active 405 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $174,000 Active 404 DOM
14. 2026-04-04
    price $174,000 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    This one is a very nice mobile home located on an oversized lot!! This home has a ton of room, the rooms are all very good sized! It features 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths and an open living, kitchen and dining room area! This home is move in ready and priced to sell! The lot is oversized and has a lot of room to run around and enjoy it! Its located towards the end of a quiet Cul de sac street. If you are looking for a home that will not break the bank, then come take a look at this one as see if its the one for you!! The HOA community has a boat ramp, community dock and pool that included with the required membership!

15. 2025-08-29
    price $189,000 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    This one is a very nice mobile home located on an oversized lot!! This home has a ton of room, the rooms are all very good sized! It features 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths and an open living, kitchen and dining room area! This home is move in ready and priced to sell! The lot is oversized and has a lot of room to run around and enjoy it! Its located towards the end of a quiet Cul de sac street. If you are looking for a home that will not break the bank, then come take a look at this one as see if its the one for you!! The HOA community has a boat ramp, community dock and pool that included with the required membership!

16. 2025-04-22
    listed $199,000 Active 621-char remark

    Show marketing remark (621 chars)

    This one is a very nice mobile home located on an oversized lot!! This home has a ton of room, the rooms are all very good sized! It features 4 bedrooms, 3 full baths and an open living, kitchen and dining room area! This home is move in ready and priced to sell! The lot is oversized and has a lot of room to run around and enjoy it! Its located towards the end of a quiet Cul de sac street. If you are looking for a home that will not break the bank, then come take a look at this one as see if its the one for you!! The HOA community has a boat ramp, community dock and pool that included with the required membership!

17. 2016-03-23
    soldstatus Sold 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Great location near Brazos River. Large storage bldg. Open concept living, dining and kitchen floor plan with island. Master suite features walk-in closet, dual sinks, separate tub-shower. All info deemed reliable but not guaranteed - it shall be incumbent upon Buyer to independently verify all info that may impact their purchase decision. HUD owned property, case #492-800453. HUD Homes are sold AS IS.

18. 2016-02-29
    status Pending 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Great location near Brazos River. Large storage bldg. Open concept living, dining and kitchen floor plan with island. Master suite features walk-in closet, dual sinks, separate tub-shower. All info deemed reliable but not guaranteed - it shall be incumbent upon Buyer to independently verify all info that may impact their purchase decision. HUD owned property, case #492-800453. HUD Homes are sold AS IS.

19. 2016-01-30
    listed $70,000 Active 405-char remark

    Show marketing remark (405 chars)

    Great location near Brazos River. Large storage bldg. Open concept living, dining and kitchen floor plan with island. Master suite features walk-in closet, dual sinks, separate tub-shower. All info deemed reliable but not guaranteed - it shall be incumbent upon Buyer to independently verify all info that may impact their purchase decision. HUD owned property, case #492-800453. HUD Homes are sold AS IS.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,229 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,184 · $265/mo
• Expected delta: +$955/yr (+$80/mo · 42.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 21% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,579
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,747
• − Property taxes: −$2,229
• − Insurance: −$870
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,886
• − Management: −$1,886
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$5,062
• Taxable income: $1,803
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$433
• After-tax cash flow: $4,050/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Granbury ISD
• NCES district ID: 4821390
• Math proficiency: 46% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,856
• Composite: 40.04/100
• National rank: #3820
• State rank: #237 of 826 in TX

Livability — Oak Trail Shores

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1187
• US rank: #20758

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oak Trail Shores, TX
• County: Hood County · 58,506 people
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,000
• Household income: $70,346
• Rent vs Own: 26.4% rent · 73.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Hood County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 63,502 people
• By 2030: 67,459 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 74,958 · +18.0%
• By 2050: 81,922 · +29.0%
• By 2075: 98,872 · +55.7%
• By 2100: 107,796 · +69.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Hood

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.0) · D 16.6% · R 82.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.9pp toward R · 2008: -54.0pp · 2024: -66.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.0 2020: R+64.1 2016: R+66.5 2012: R+64.7 2008: R+54.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.25%
• Current HPI: 272.2126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.10%
• Metro: Granbury, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+148.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $174,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $189,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-22 Listed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2016-03-23 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2016-02-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2016-01-30 Listed $70,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,229 · -1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.