149 Howard Dr · Newport News, VA 23185

$165,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 170 Days on market

Built 1950 Est $278k · 41% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.7/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for your next investment or rental opportunity? This 3-bedroom, 1-bath ranch-style home in James City County is ready for you. With just a little TLC and elbow grease, you can easily add this gem to your portfolio—whether you plan to flip it or hold it as a rental. Overall, the property is in solid condition. Being sold as-is, where-is, with the seller making no repairs. Don’t miss your chance—schedule your private tour today before it’s gone!

Key facts

• Built 1950
• Listed 170 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $517 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $165k).
• Recommended offer: $145k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 4.2% in Newport News — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#123 in VA, #4,018 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living A, housing A; Watch: crime F, commute F.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 390 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in James City County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• James City County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.2% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 170 days — a 12% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 170 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.27% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.43%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,460
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
199 Railroad St	0.32mi	3/1.5	1,200 (+3%)	4mo	$290,000	$242	76
160 Whiting Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+15%)	7mo	$298,000	$222	57
164 Magruder Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+3%)	14mo	$250,000	$208	51
8702 Pocahontas Trl	0.59mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,300 (+11%)	2mo	$310,000	$238	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.21% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $10,985
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $72,557
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23185

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 390
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $517

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8539 Pocahontas Trl Unit 1 Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,025	$1.50	2d	1	0.26mi
8810 Pocahontas Trl Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	784	$1,550	$1.98	2d	1	0.98mi
1932 Algonquin Trl Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1384	$2,195	$1.59	11d	1	1.10mi
1879 Ferrell Dr Williamsburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1206	$1,850	$1.53	2d	1	1.11mi
9 Sidewinder Ct Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,700	$1.45	2d	1	1.15mi
1953 Algonquin Trl Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1384	$1,900	$1.37	19d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-11-18
   status Active
3. 2025-09-13
   status Under Contract
4. 2025-09-04
   listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable income: $3,803
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$913
• After-tax cash flow: $5,291/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Newport News

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #123
• US rank: #4018

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Williamsburg City · 55,270 people
• City population: 178,950
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 55,270
• Household income: $105,431
• Rent vs Own: 28.3% rent · 71.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1770.0

Population outlook (James City County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,286 people
• By 2030: 89,687 · +6.4%
• By 2040: 99,580 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 108,487 · +28.7%
• By 2075: 128,950 · +53.0%
• By 2100: 138,702 · +64.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 14% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · James City

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.2) · D 52.5% · R 46.3% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.5pp toward D · 2008: -9.2pp · 2024: 6.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.2 2020: D+4.8 2016: R+5.1 2012: R+12.1 2008: R+9.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.15%
• Current HPI: 240.1637
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.21%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — REINMLS
• 2025-11-18 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2025-09-13 Pending — REINMLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $165,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

-64.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $105 · -87.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.