62253 Paige Rd · Bogalusa, LA 70427

$78,500

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,811 sqft · SingleFamily · 492 Days on market

Built 1960 2.48 ac lot $28/sqft · 49% below area Est $155k · 49% under ↓ 19% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special. Gutted and ready for renovations. Bring all offers.

Key facts

• 2.48 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $900 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 20.0% vs local median 6.0% in Bogalusa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#273 in LA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime F, amenities F.
• City Of Bogalusa School District (town): math 4% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #96 of 98 in LA (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 87% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 87 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Washington Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $543 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Washington County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 492 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $16k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $69,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 492 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.12%
• DSCR: 3.19
• GRM: 3.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,786
• List price: $78,500
• Delta: -49.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $44,597
• Equity at exit: $11,705

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.13×
• Total profit: $112,690
• Equity at exit: $6,787

Cash invested: $21,980 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70427

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 87
• Price-to-rent: 3.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,807 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$412
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $1,000/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $900

Break-even live

Break-even rent $668

Max offer price $78,500

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,625
• Closing costs: $2,355
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $78,500 Pending 492 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $78,500 Active 492 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $78,500 Active 491 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $78,500 Active 490 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $78,500 Active 488 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $78,500 Active 485 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $78,500 Active 484 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $78,500 Active 483 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $78,500 Active 482 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $78,500 Active 478 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $78,500 Active 477 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $78,500 Active 476 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $78,500 Active 475 DOM
14. 2025-10-09
    price $78,500 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Investor special. Gutted and ready for renovations. Bring all offers.

15. 2025-10-09
    price $78,500 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Investor special. Gutted and ready for renovations. Bring all offers.

16. 2025-08-08
    price $86,900 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Investor special. Gutted and ready for renovations. Bring all offers.

17. 2025-08-08
    price $86,900 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Investor special. Gutted and ready for renovations. Bring all offers.

18. 2025-06-18
    price $89,900 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Investor special. Gutted and ready for renovations. Bring all offers.

19. 2025-06-18
    price $89,900 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Investor special. Gutted and ready for renovations. Bring all offers.

20. 2025-04-22
    price $91,000 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Investor special. Gutted and ready for renovations. Bring all offers.

21. 2025-04-22
    price $91,000 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Investor special. Gutted and ready for renovations. Bring all offers.

22. 2025-02-10
    listed $95,000 Active 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Investor special. Gutted and ready for renovations. Bring all offers.

23. 2025-02-10
    listed $95,000 Active 69-char remark

    Show marketing remark (69 chars)

    Investor special. Gutted and ready for renovations. Bring all offers.

24. 2021-07-16
    soldstatus $100,000
25. 2020-12-11
    soldstatus $70,000 Closed
26. 2020-11-25
    status Pending
27. 2020-10-08
    status Active
28. 2020-09-21
    status Pending
29. 2020-08-27
    price $85,000
30. 2020-05-27
    status Active
31. 2020-05-14
    status Pending
32. 2020-03-12
    listed $97,500 Active
33. 2020-03-12
    listed $85,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,000 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,682
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,000
• − Insurance: −$392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,735
• − Management: −$1,735
• − Depreciation: −$2,284
• Taxable income: $10,139
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,433
• After-tax cash flow: $8,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: City Of Bogalusa School District
• NCES district ID: 2200240
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -36.00%
• Median HH income: $26,185
• Composite: 6.48/100
• National rank: #9994
• State rank: #96 of 98 in LA

Livability — Bogalusa

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #273
• US rank: #19955

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 17,564

Population outlook (Washington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,642 people
• By 2030: 43,302 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 40,345 · -9.6%
• By 2050: 37,434 · -16.1%
• By 2075: 29,954 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 21,579 · -51.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Washington

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.3) · D 29.3% · R 69.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -32.7pp · 2024: -40.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.3 2020: R+37.6 2016: R+36.8 2012: R+28.3 2008: R+32.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -24.26%
• Current HPI: 112.358
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-19.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $78,500 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-10-09 Price Changed $78,500 GSREIN
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $86,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-08-08 Price Changed $86,900 GSREIN
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $89,900 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-06-18 Price Changed $89,900 GSREIN
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $91,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2025-04-22 Price Changed $91,000 GSREIN
• 2025-02-10 Listed $95,000 GSREIN
• 2025-02-10 Listed $95,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2021-07-16 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2020-12-11 Sold (MLS) $70,000 GSREIN
• 2020-11-25 Pending — GSREIN
• 2020-10-08 Relisted — GSREIN
• 2020-09-21 Pending — GSREIN
• 2020-08-27 Price Changed $85,000 GSREIN
• 2020-05-27 Relisted — GSREIN
• 2020-05-14 Pending — GSREIN
• 2020-03-12 Listed $85,000 AcadianaMLS
• 2020-03-12 Listed $97,500 GSREIN

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,000 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.