1612 Barkins St · Orange, TX 77630

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 2010 6,534 sqft lot Est $58k · 5% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.9/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Calling all investors! Location! Location! Location! This 2/1 is ready for to be brought back to life!

Key facts

• 6,534 sq ft lot

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residential
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Chain link fence; Composition roof

Interior

• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Interior features: Laminate flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $55k).
• Cap rate 15.5% vs local median 3.8% in Orange — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#286 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• West Orange-Cove CISD (suburban): math 17% / reading 21% proficiency, ranked #784 of 826 in TX (top 95%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: West Orange-Stark El (math 14% / reading 17%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 1,130 students, 94% FRL); West Orange-Stark Middle (math 20% / reading 20%, grade F, #1,428 of 1,662 statewide, top 87%, 505 students, 92% FRL); West Orange-Stark H S (math 19% / reading 31%, grade F, #1,250 of 1,632 statewide, top 77%, 660 students, 88% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 339 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 235 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (50 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $936 of equity ($380 loan paydown + $556 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +6% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.9% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.91%
• DSCR: 2.46
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $58,080
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2228 Norwood Dr	0.52mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,084 (+3%)	12mo	$60,000	$55	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.01% appreciation · 5.71% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $31,468
• Equity at exit: $18,804

10-year hold

• IRR: 42.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.69×
• Total profit: $87,619
• Equity at exit: $25,011

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77630

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 339
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,215 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,711/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$255
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $680

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 60%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $617	-5% $598	+0% $422	+5% $407	+10% $391
Rent	-10% $326	-5% $374	+0% $422	+5% $470	+10% $518
Rate	-1.0pp $450	-0.5pp $436	base $422	+0.5pp $408	+1.0pp $394

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9 W Eads Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1255	$1,400	$1.12	45d	1	0.25mi
1030 Clairmont Dr Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1372	$1,850	$1.35	22d	1	0.31mi
2318 Pacific St Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$800	$1.00	15d	1	0.31mi
1019 Ruby Ln Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	1243	$1,100	$0.88	15d	1	0.36mi
2208 Monterrey Dr Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1132	$1,200	$1.06	45d	1	0.40mi
2511 N 8th St Unit Left Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$900	$1.20	15d	1	0.47mi
1907 Walnut Ave Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1360	$1,475	$1.08	15d	1	0.52mi
3901 Beverly Ave Orange, TX	3.0	2.0	1359	$1,500	$1.10	15d	1	0.57mi
2309 7th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.0	1036	$995	$0.96	15d	1	0.58mi
1500 Link Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1082	$1,050	$0.97	14d	1	0.74mi
2801 W Sunset Dr Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1113	$1,088	$0.98	14d	27	0.94mi
206 W Dewey Ave Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	800	$777	$0.97	45d	1	1.19mi
310 S Farragut Ave Orange, TX	2.0	1.0	725	$1,150	$1.59	45d	1	1.23mi
1010 N 16th St Orange, TX	3.0	1.5	1100	$1,500	$1.36	45d	1	1.25mi
1885 E Farragut Ave Orange, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1023	$924	$0.90	14d	9	1.28mi
1604 W Cherry Ave Orange, TX	1.0	1.0	850	$1,240	$1.46	45d	1	1.36mi
3345 W Park Ave Orange, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	999	$1,182	$1.18	14d	7	1.47mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,711 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,711 · $226/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,576
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$2,711
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,166
• − Management: −$1,166
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,577
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,098
• After-tax cash flow: $3,969/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: West Orange-Cove CISD
• NCES district ID: 4845090
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 21% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $37,329
• Composite: 15.86/100
• National rank: #9260
• State rank: #784 of 826 in TX

Livability — Orange

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #286
• US rank: #6456

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orange, TX
• County: Orange County · 87,112 people
• City population: 22,976
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 28,983
• Household income: $64,373
• Rent vs Own: 32.2% rent · 67.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1018.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,065 people
• By 2030: 89,591 · +1.7%
• By 2040: 91,982 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 93,023 · +5.6%
• By 2075: 94,871 · +7.7%
• By 2100: 88,155 · +0.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 13% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.8) · D 16.4% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.6pp toward R · 2008: -47.1pp · 2024: -66.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.8 2020: R+63.4 2016: R+61.9 2012: R+54.3 2008: R+47.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.01%
• Current HPI: 264.14
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.71%
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-05-19 Listed $55,000 BBOR

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,711 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.