The Olive Plan · Midlothian, TX 76084

$399,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,210 sqft · SingleFamily · 273 Days on market

$30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Olive - 4-bed, 2-bath, 2,210 sq ft New Home Plan in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX The Olive is a thoughtfully designed single-story, energy-efficient home plan offering 2,210 sq ft of open-concept living in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX. Standard features include four bedrooms, two and a half baths, a chef's kitchen with center island and walk-in pantry, and a private owner's suite with spa-style bath and walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms share a well-appointed hall bath. Also includes a versatile Flex Room. Optional add-ons include a fifth bedroom, a third bathroom, versatile kitchen island styles, alternate primary bathroom layouts, enhanced stone exteriors, an extended front porch, and designer-curated finish packages-perfect for personalizing your move-in ready new construction home in the DFW area

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Listed 273 days

🏗️ New construction. The $399,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $465,000.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $400k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-16k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (31.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#371 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maypearl ISD (rural): math 38% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #325 of 826 in TX (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 426 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$60k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($352k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $242,225 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.26%
• DSCR: 0.45
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $465,000
• List price: $399,990
• Delta: -13.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Brahman St	0.08mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,242 (+1%)	2mo	$449,990	$201	87
10345 Muley Ave	0.15mi	4/2.0	2,333 (+6%)	3mo	$479,990	$206	79
230 Highgate Dr	0.41mi	4/2.0	2,212 (+0%)	2mo	$529,900	$240	77
10305 Muley Ave	0.26mi	4/2.5	2,356 (+7%)	1mo	$385,000	$163	76
10309 Livestock Ave	0.23mi	4/3.0	2,356 (+7%)	2mo	$385,000	$163	75
220 Brahman St	0.14mi	4/3.0	2,434 (+10%)	3mo	$465,000	$191	72
212 Braford Pl	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,405 (+9%)	1mo	$465,000	$193	68
10448 Livestock Ave	0.09mi	4/2.5	2,523 (+14%)	6mo	$499,990	$198	67
228 Brahman St	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,996 (-10%)	5mo	$425,000	$213	67
10671 Winter Wheat Ln	0.71mi	4/2.0	2,231 (+1%)	1mo	$536,990	$241	63
161 Highgate Dr	0.40mi	4/2.0	2,411 (+9%)	2mo	$525,000	$218	62
10611 Millet Ln	0.59mi	4/2.0	2,340 (+6%)	3mo	$498,999	$213	58

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.32% appreciation · 2.39% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.66×
• Total profit: $85,448
• Equity at exit: $332,019

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $308,130
• Equity at exit: $639,755

Cash invested: $130,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76084

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 426
• Price-to-rent: 13.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,422 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,439
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$581 /mo · $6,975/yr
• Insurance: −$194
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$509
• Net cashflow: $-1,330

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,106

Max offer price $272,557

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $116,250
• Closing costs: $13,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $399,990 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $399,990 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $399,990 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $399,990 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,990 Active 268 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $399,990 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $399,990 Active 264 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $399,990 Active 263 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $399,990 Active 262 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $399,990 Active 259 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $399,990 Active 258 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $399,990 Active 257 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $399,990 Active 256 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $399,990 Active 255 DOM
15. 2026-04-15
    price $399,990 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    The Olive - 4-bed, 2-bath, 2,210 sq ft New Home Plan in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX The Olive is a thoughtfully designed single-story, energy-efficient home plan offering 2,210 sq ft of open-concept living in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX. Standard features include four bedrooms, two and a half baths, a chef's kitchen with center island and walk-in pantry, and a private owner's suite with spa-style bath and walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms share a well-appointed hall bath. Also includes a versatile Flex Room. Optional add-ons include a fifth bedroom, a third bathroom, versatile kitchen island styles, alternate primary bathroom layouts, enhanced stone exteriors, an extended front porch, and designer-curated finish packages-perfect for personalizing your move-in ready new construction home in the DFW area

16. 2026-04-08
    price $419,990 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    The Olive - 4-bed, 2-bath, 2,210 sq ft New Home Plan in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX The Olive is a thoughtfully designed single-story, energy-efficient home plan offering 2,210 sq ft of open-concept living in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX. Standard features include four bedrooms, two and a half baths, a chef's kitchen with center island and walk-in pantry, and a private owner's suite with spa-style bath and walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms share a well-appointed hall bath. Also includes a versatile Flex Room. Optional add-ons include a fifth bedroom, a third bathroom, versatile kitchen island styles, alternate primary bathroom layouts, enhanced stone exteriors, an extended front porch, and designer-curated finish packages-perfect for personalizing your move-in ready new construction home in the DFW area

17. 2025-12-04
    status Active 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    The Olive - 4-bed, 2-bath, 2,210 sq ft New Home Plan in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX The Olive is a thoughtfully designed single-story, energy-efficient home plan offering 2,210 sq ft of open-concept living in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX. Standard features include four bedrooms, two and a half baths, a chef's kitchen with center island and walk-in pantry, and a private owner's suite with spa-style bath and walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms share a well-appointed hall bath. Also includes a versatile Flex Room. Optional add-ons include a fifth bedroom, a third bathroom, versatile kitchen island styles, alternate primary bathroom layouts, enhanced stone exteriors, an extended front porch, and designer-curated finish packages-perfect for personalizing your move-in ready new construction home in the DFW area

18. 2025-12-04
    price $414,990 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    The Olive - 4-bed, 2-bath, 2,210 sq ft New Home Plan in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX The Olive is a thoughtfully designed single-story, energy-efficient home plan offering 2,210 sq ft of open-concept living in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX. Standard features include four bedrooms, two and a half baths, a chef's kitchen with center island and walk-in pantry, and a private owner's suite with spa-style bath and walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms share a well-appointed hall bath. Also includes a versatile Flex Room. Optional add-ons include a fifth bedroom, a third bathroom, versatile kitchen island styles, alternate primary bathroom layouts, enhanced stone exteriors, an extended front porch, and designer-curated finish packages-perfect for personalizing your move-in ready new construction home in the DFW area

19. 2025-11-21
    historical 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    The Olive - 4-bed, 2-bath, 2,210 sq ft New Home Plan in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX The Olive is a thoughtfully designed single-story, energy-efficient home plan offering 2,210 sq ft of open-concept living in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX. Standard features include four bedrooms, two and a half baths, a chef's kitchen with center island and walk-in pantry, and a private owner's suite with spa-style bath and walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms share a well-appointed hall bath. Also includes a versatile Flex Room. Optional add-ons include a fifth bedroom, a third bathroom, versatile kitchen island styles, alternate primary bathroom layouts, enhanced stone exteriors, an extended front porch, and designer-curated finish packages-perfect for personalizing your move-in ready new construction home in the DFW area

20. 2025-10-14
    price $409,990 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    The Olive - 4-bed, 2-bath, 2,210 sq ft New Home Plan in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX The Olive is a thoughtfully designed single-story, energy-efficient home plan offering 2,210 sq ft of open-concept living in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX. Standard features include four bedrooms, two and a half baths, a chef's kitchen with center island and walk-in pantry, and a private owner's suite with spa-style bath and walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms share a well-appointed hall bath. Also includes a versatile Flex Room. Optional add-ons include a fifth bedroom, a third bathroom, versatile kitchen island styles, alternate primary bathroom layouts, enhanced stone exteriors, an extended front porch, and designer-curated finish packages-perfect for personalizing your move-in ready new construction home in the DFW area

21. 2025-09-05
    listed $399,990 Active 815-char remark

    Show marketing remark (815 chars)

    The Olive - 4-bed, 2-bath, 2,210 sq ft New Home Plan in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX The Olive is a thoughtfully designed single-story, energy-efficient home plan offering 2,210 sq ft of open-concept living in Brahman Ranch, Venus, TX. Standard features include four bedrooms, two and a half baths, a chef's kitchen with center island and walk-in pantry, and a private owner's suite with spa-style bath and walk-in closet. Three secondary bedrooms share a well-appointed hall bath. Also includes a versatile Flex Room. Optional add-ons include a fifth bedroom, a third bathroom, versatile kitchen island styles, alternate primary bathroom layouts, enhanced stone exteriors, an extended front porch, and designer-curated finish packages-perfect for personalizing your move-in ready new construction home in the DFW area

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,067
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,047
• − Property taxes: −$6,975
• − Insurance: −$2,325
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,325
• − Management: −$2,325
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$13,527
• Taxable loss: −$24,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,956
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maypearl ISD
• NCES district ID: 4829580
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,708
• Composite: 36.3/100
• National rank: #4697
• State rank: #325 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midlothian

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #371
• US rank: #7851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Johnson County · 147,987 people
• City population: 47,438
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,097
• Household income: $102,115
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Ellis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,556 people
• By 2030: 209,679 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 238,837 · +22.8%
• By 2050: 265,451 · +36.4%
• By 2075: 326,571 · +67.9%
• By 2100: 362,156 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 24% Black 11% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ellis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.0% · R 65.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.2pp toward D · 2008: -42.2pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+34.1 2016: R+45.4 2012: R+47.5 2008: R+42.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.32%
• Current HPI: 355.74
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.39%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $399,990 Zillow
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $419,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $414,990 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $409,990 Zillow
• 2025-09-05 Listed $399,990 Zillow