36015 W Prado St · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$350,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,465 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 130 Days on market

Built 2020 5,401 sqft lot $142/sqft · 12% below area Est $400k · 13% under $85/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Maricopa with a functional and spacious layout. The main level features tile flooring throughout the open great room and a modern kitchen with espresso cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a large walk-in pantry, and a central island with breakfast bar seating. Upstairs includes a versatile loft area and a primary suite with a walk-in closet that connects directly to the laundry room for added convenience. The primary bathroom offers dual sinks and a private layout. The finished backyard includes a covered patio, paver seating area, artificial turf, and low-maintenance landscaping. Additional features include a 2-car garage and minimal exterior upkeep.

Key facts

• Tile flooring
• Functional layout
• Modern kitchen

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• TILE FLOORING
• MODERN KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-514 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $259k (25.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (36.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (36.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 845 active listings in the ZIP; 28 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($308k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,590 (36.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 37% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.53%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.29%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 13.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $400,071
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -12.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35175 W Marin Ave	0.57mi	4/3.0	2,369 (-4%)	0mo	$365,000	$154	65
36066 W Vera Cruz Dr	0.09mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,788 (+13%)	3mo	$420,000	$151	65
36766 W Nina St	0.50mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,537 (+3%)	3mo	$419,990	$166	63
36550 W Nina St	0.38mi	4/3.0	2,233 (-9%)	3mo	$317,500	$142	62
18939 N Avelino Dr	0.51mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,537 (+3%)	3mo	$406,300	$160	62
36338 W Cartegna Ln	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,123 (-14%)	1mo	$400,000	$188	60
36562 W Nina St	0.39mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,234 (-9%)	4mo	$359,990	$161	56
37212 W Parador Ln	0.75mi	4/2.5	2,343 (-5%)	3mo	$380,990	$163	54
37189 W Montserrat St	0.75mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,530 (+3%)	0mo	$435,000	$172	53
37190 W Montserrat St	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,530 (+3%)	1mo	$399,990	$158	53
36421 W Velazquez Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0	2,176 (-12%)	4mo	$339,900	$156	53
37170 W Montserrat St	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,157 (-12%)	1mo	$367,500	$170	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-60,057
• Equity at exit: $86,376

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.23×
• Total profit: $-75,104
• Equity at exit: $92,322

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 845
• Price-to-rent: 13.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,216 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,379/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$465
• Net cashflow: $-514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,866

Max offer price $259,213

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 28 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36269 W Cartegna Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2408	$2,900	$1.20	3d	1	0.31mi
36033 W San Clemente Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1775	$1,700	$0.96	44d	1	0.36mi
35455 W Cartegna Ln Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,200	$1.20	10d	1	0.38mi
18853 N Vemto St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2233	$1,895	$0.85	24d	1	0.42mi
36043 W Santa Clara Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	1d	1	0.53mi
35916 W Catalonia Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2129	$2,100	$0.99	1d	1	0.58mi
18392 N Los Gabrieles Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,785	$1.07	4d	1	0.58mi
35450 W Santa Clara Ave Maricopa, AZ	5.0	5.5	3199	$2,500	$0.78	24d	1	0.59mi
35579 W San Capistrano Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	5d	1	0.63mi
36148 W Seville Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	1950	$2,450	$1.26	15d	1	0.64mi
35396 W San Capistrano Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	44d	1	0.66mi
37043 W Vera Cruz Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,300	$1.26	1d	1	0.67mi
36419 W San Ildefanso Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1849	$1,795	$0.97	15d	1	0.68mi
35963 W San Alvarez Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1922	$1,995	$1.04	24d	1	0.69mi
18389 N Conquistador Dr Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	5d	1	0.74mi
36085 W San Sisto Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1605	$2,500	$1.56	1d	1	0.75mi
18099 N Los Gabrieles Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1700	$2,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.78mi
37154 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2223	$1,695	$0.76	24d	1	1.11mi
37963 W Merced St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2488	$2,285	$0.92	22d	1	1.24mi
36610 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.0	1953	$2,195	$1.12	1d	1	1.24mi
17936 N Lettere Cir Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2012	$1,800	$0.89	5d	1	1.26mi
18735 N Ravello Rd Maricopa, AZ	5.0	3.0	1997	$2,450	$1.23	44d	1	1.33mi
37392 W Capri Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,695	$0.96	17d	1	1.34mi
37392 W Capri Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,695	$0.96	15d	1	1.34mi
36822 W Maddaloni Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,775	$0.97	2d	1	1.35mi
38205 W Montserrat St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	2280	$2,195	$0.96	20d	1	1.39mi
38105 W Isabella Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,736	$0.97	5d	1	1.43mi
38248 W Santa Clara Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	24d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $350,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-02-03
   price $350,000 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Maricopa with a functional and spacious layout. The main level features tile flooring throughout the open great room and a modern kitchen with espresso cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a large walk-in pantry, and a central island with breakfast bar seating. Upstairs includes a versatile loft area and a primary suite with a walk-in closet that connects directly to the laundry room for added convenience. The primary bathroom offers dual sinks and a private layout. The finished backyard includes a covered patio, paver seating area, artificial turf, and low-maintenance landscaping. Additional features include a 2-car garage and minimal exterior upkeep.

3. 2026-01-21
   listed $355,000 Active 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Well-maintained 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home in Maricopa with a functional and spacious layout. The main level features tile flooring throughout the open great room and a modern kitchen with espresso cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, a large walk-in pantry, and a central island with breakfast bar seating. Upstairs includes a versatile loft area and a primary suite with a walk-in closet that connects directly to the laundry room for added convenience. The primary bathroom offers dual sinks and a private layout. The finished backyard includes a covered patio, paver seating area, artificial turf, and low-maintenance landscaping. Additional features include a 2-car garage and minimal exterior upkeep.

4. 2025-11-18
   historical
5. 2025-10-08
   price $360,000
6. 2025-09-15
   listed $370,000 Active
7. 2020-01-21
   soldstatus $5,200,500
8. 2004-06-30
   soldstatus $3,516,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,379 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,591
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$2,379
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,127
• − Management: −$2,127
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$12,600
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,024
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,143/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-90.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $350,000 ARMLS
• 2026-01-21 Listed $355,000 ARMLS
• 2025-11-18 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $360,000 ARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $370,000 ARMLS
• 2020-01-21 Sold (Public Records) $5,200,500 Public Records
• 2004-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $3,516,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,379 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.