1411 Cherry Springs Ct · Missouri City, TX 77459

$199,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,622 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1977 7,962 sqft lot $123/sqft · 23% below area Est $258k · 23% under $15/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This very clean and well-kept traditional home features a functional 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout with a 2-car attached garage, offering a comfortable and practical floor plan perfect for everyday living. The property has been well maintained with all major mechanical systems in proper working condition, including HVAC, plumbing, and electrical, with no known issues. The home offers spacious living areas, a functional kitchen, and nicely sized bedrooms, making it a perfect starter home or great option for anyone looking for a move-in-ready property. Pride of ownership shows throughout, and the structure is solid with nothing needed.

Key facts

• 7,962 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.5% in Missouri City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#526 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.1%/yr); 1215 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.96%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $257,721
• List price: $199,000
• Delta: -22.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3107 Southern Hills Dr	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,531 (-6%)	0mo	$265,000	$173	81
1615 Turtle Creek Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+6%)	2mo	$275,000	$160	77
8402 Bird Meadow Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+3%)	6mo	$249,900	$150	69
8403 Blossom Bell Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-5%)	6mo	$245,000	$158	69
1731 Gray Hawk Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,740 (+7%)	3mo	$310,000	$178	62
8434 Quail Crest Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-4%)	3mo	$239,500	$154	61
16718 Running Quail Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+4%)	1mo	$235,000	$139	60
3135 Apple Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,754 (+8%)	6mo	$263,500	$150	60
2015 Quail Valley East Dr	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,528 (-6%)	4mo	$225,000	$147	56
3502 Quail Meadow Dr	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,740 (+7%)	2mo	$249,000	$143	49
1858 Hilton Head Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,859 (+15%)	6mo	$189,000	$102	47
16711 Running Quail Ct	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-8%)	3mo	$210,000	$140	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.67% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-20,916
• Equity at exit: $41,736

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-22,909
• Equity at exit: $38,658

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77459

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 1215
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,024 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$366 /mo · $4,392/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$15
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$425
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,908

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $204	-5% $148	+0% $91	+5% $35	+10% $-21
Rent	-10% $-69	-5% $11	+0% $91	+5% $171	+10% $251
Rate	-1.0pp $191	-0.5pp $142	base $91	+0.5pp $40	+1.0pp $-13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	0.14mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	44d	1	0.81mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	44d	1	0.86mi
1055 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,514	$2.53	1d	121	1.13mi
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	44d	1	1.25mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $15 · $180/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   This very clean and well-kept traditional home features a functional 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout with a 2-car attached garage, offering a comfortable and practical floor plan perfect for everyday living. The property has been well maintained with all major mechanical systems in proper working condition, including HVAC, plumbing, and electrical, with no known issues. The home offers spacious living areas, a functional kitchen, and nicely sized bedrooms, making it a perfect starter home or great option for anyone looking for a move-in-ready property. Pride of ownership shows throughout, and the structure is solid with nothing needed.

2. 2026-03-22
   listed $199,000 Active 636-char remark

   Show marketing remark (636 chars)

   This very clean and well-kept traditional home features a functional 3-bedroom, 2-bath layout with a 2-car attached garage, offering a comfortable and practical floor plan perfect for everyday living. The property has been well maintained with all major mechanical systems in proper working condition, including HVAC, plumbing, and electrical, with no known issues. The home offers spacious living areas, a functional kitchen, and nicely sized bedrooms, making it a perfect starter home or great option for anyone looking for a move-in-ready property. Pride of ownership shows throughout, and the structure is solid with nothing needed.

3. 1998-05-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,392 · $366/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 66% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,284
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$4,392
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,943
• − Management: −$1,943
• − HOA: −$180
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable loss: −$2,105
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$505
• After-tax cash flow: $1,600/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Missouri City

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #526
• US rank: #10308

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Missouri City, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 123,513
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,221
• Household income: $129,151
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1004.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.75)
• Race & ethnicity: White 34% Black 26% Asian 22% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.67%
• Current HPI: 212.3573
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $199,000 HARMLS
• 1998-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,392 · -4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.